ICICI OneSource (now Firstsource Solutions) has an IPO between Jan 29 and Feb 2 (2007) with the following details:
Price: Rs. 54 to Rs. 64.
Shares: 6.93 cr. shares (6 cr. new shares, .93 sale by existing shareholder)
Dates: Jan 29 to Feb 02, 2007
Total post issue capital: 41.62 cr. shares
Valuation: P/E of 28
The total valuation of the company, post IPO, at the higher band is Rs. 2664 cr. The last nine months have shown a 62 cr. net profit. This means a nine month EPS of Rs. 1.75 per share, which when annualised gives us an EPS of Rs. 2.33 per share. This means, at the higher band, the valuation is a P/E of 27.47.
Now is this cheap? Let's take a look at WNS Global Services, India's second largest BPO (after the privately owned Genpact). Net profit of WNS are about $6 million in the Jul-Sep 06 quarter, annualised at $24 million. In rupees, that is 108 cr., which is about twice the size of Firstsource. Revenues of WNS are about $350 million annualised, which is twice firstsource's size. WNS is priced at about $30 per share, which is a P/E of 60. Assuming that the market leader gets a 20% higher pricing than others, the P/E of Firstsource should probably be at 45-50 levels. Which is nearly double the IPO offer.
What's the IPO money being used for?
Remember that 93 lakh shares are for sale by an investor, so that much money won't be available to the company. At the higher band, the company will get Rs. 400 cr. Let's see how it proposes to use the money.
Firstly, 180 cr. of the proceeds will be kept for acquisition. This is good news, because there needs to be some consolidation in the BPO space.
Secondly the company intends to invest in a new facility in Chennai which should be ready by March 31, 2007, at a cost of 14.26 cr. Another 32 cr. has been earmarked for other locations.
The company intends to repay a loan of 45 cr in 2008. This may or may not involve a pre-payment, but in the light of interest rates going up, I feel they might prepay.
Expenses and working capital: The remaining money - about 130 cr. at the higher band - is kept for issue expenses and working capital. Unfortunately no cap has been placed, percentage wise, on the expenses, and this is a small source of worry.
Competition
Firstsource has been ranked #5 among non-captive BPOs in India, after Genpact, WNS, Wipro BPO and HCL BPO. Genpact is private and the Wipro and HCL BPOs are arms of a larger public software company. WNS is the only other public company, but its financial results for the December 06 quarter will only be available on Feb 13. That's after this IPO closes, so we have to compare earlier figures.
As I've mentioned, the P/E of 27.5 on the last nine-months, on an annualised basis, is attractive and much lower than WNS's valuation. I believe that the issue is very conservatively priced, and shareholders can expect a much higher P/E of about 50 or so. The CAGR of Firstsource, from 2004 has grown from 60 lakh to 24 cr in 2006, with the first 9 months of 2007 yielding 62 cr. That's a growth of over 100% yearly, indicative of a good growth story.
Advantages
Multi-location: There are already delivery centers in the US, UK, Argentina and one more coming up in Philippines, which is a lower cost country than India and also has the important distinction of being able to serve Japanese companies easily.
Inorganic growth: Acquisition of customers will happen also by buying out other companies, which, along with the organic growth they have shown, will show a faster increase in revenues and profits.
Not just voice: While some other companies focus on the now commoditised voice delivery (phone agents), Firstsource has moved into other areas including check processing, loan servicing, marketing analytics and compliance. This is a better margin business and less commoditised, plus requires a greater skillset and knowledge base. So competition in that sector will only be from large players, a significant advantage and entry barrier.
Recent acquisition: Firstsource recently acquired BPM, a US based BPO which will add revenues and income to the company, visible perhaps in this quarter onwards.
Results upto December 31 in the offer document
Firstsource has provided results upto December 31, 2006 in the offer document. This is commendable. In recent IPOs, like Info Edge, there were no recent results available for comparison, in fact Info Edge has not even declared it's July to September 06 quarterly results to the stock exchanges! In that respect I like it that Firstsource has chosen to be as transparent as possible.
Recent shares sold
Recently, shares of Firstsource Limited have been transferred to Galleon, an institutional investor, at a price of Rs. 62 per share. This is less than the price of Rs. 64 at the upper band, but Galleon has agreed to pay the difference if the actual price of the issue is greater than Rs. 62. This is showing serious confidence in the company, plus the strong ethical stand that this share sale will not be at a lower cost that what other general shareholders will pay.
Prior to this there were some option conversions to Westbridge (a PE firm) which being option conversions were created longer back and only exercised recently. Such transfers do not reflect today's price, but of the price when the option was created which is longer back.
I had mentioned in my earlier IPO analysis of Info Edge (Naukri) that in their case, they sold to institutions at Rs. 245 - a far lower amount than paid by shareholders at Rs. 320 - that such lower valuation sales to institutions immediately prior to the issue amounts to taking money away from other shareholders. In this case though, there is no such problem.
Dependence on a few clients
Five clients account for about 50% of income in the last nine months, and losing such clients will cause revenue losses. But this will probably change with the IPO money being used for expansion and acquisitions. Any organic or inorganic growth is likely to keep the dependence down, and stabilise the business.
Recommendation
I recommend a buy for this IPO. Subscribe at the higher end of the band. I think this is one of the stronger and more capable players in this space and will yield good results.
But subscribe on the last day of the IPO, looking at oversubscription. If the issue is more than 5 times oversubscribed, you should probably look at buying in the secondary market - though if you don't mind locking your money for a while, you should apply in the primary market as well. I'll post the subscription statistics here on Feb 1.
The lack of irrational exuberance
Categories: Commentary
Actually high inflation means strong growth. Interest rates are control measures. We are complaining about 9% interest now? It was more than 9% in 2002, when the bull market started...and slowly came down over a few years. This year, interest rates will stay at this level or a little bit higher, but the US Fed will drop rates by around 100 basis points in 2007,and we will follow suit in 2008. So the lower interest rate regime will return next year.
One big issue is whether liquidity will remain. But man, that is such a moot issue today: MFs are getting more and more money every single month and the data in the markets is showing very strong money flows into equity. Remember SLR and Repo/Reverse Repo largely suck out debt liquidity which actually moves money into equities. In simple terms it means that more and more people are investing in Indian stocks, either directly or through Mutual funds.
Lastly, behavioural patterns. Short term movements have always reflected investor sentiment, and today there is only pessimism and skepticism in the streets. Ask anyone what will happen to the Sensex, everyone says it will crash. The problem is, if that is the feeling, then it will not crash. For a real bust, there needs to be exuberance, irrational exuberance. The kind that we saw in May 2006.
Irrational exuberance is where everyone around you is talking about the stock markets. Dinner conversation hovers around how someone made 5% on a daily basis, just buying a stock in the morning and selling it in the evening. Everyone's talking about the next level - that it will reach crazy, insane highs and no one can ever stop this juggernaut, and that anyone thinking otherwise must be nuts.
Right now that is not the case.
What I see and hear around me is: Fear. No one wants to invest at what seems to be the height of the markets - after all, no one forgets a May 2006 too fast. Yet, unless people get irrational, markets don't crash on their own - it takes overleveraged traders and greedy investors to topple a market. These guys are still not in the market right now - at least, I haven't seen too much of them.
Other than exuberance, external factors can influence a major fall. Like BJP losing elections in 2004. Or a regulatory scam where they stop markets. Or a war. You can't predict that anyway, and by the time you can, it's too late.
So let's focus on the issue: No irrational exuberance yet. Everyone's a skeptic. Everyone's a muh-bola-bear. This is the time for smart investors to buy, and buy into the right shares. In fact, there will be small, healthy corrections every few days - choose that time to buy.
What's the right share? Well, I bought BHEL at 2120 on Jan 15; simply believing that a strong order book deserves a better valuation. It's up at 2448 today, and has announced STELLAR results post market time, and a 1:1 bonus, so I assume it's going to up itself on Monday. That's already a 15% return in 15 days, and most likely I will sell if the share moves beyond 2800 within three months.
Now, BHEL was a smart move. But I've made a seemingly dumb move too - I bought Dr. Reddy's Lab (DRL) at Rs. 790 a couple days back. It's at 762 or so now, a 4% loss! But I still like that share - I think it's being offered at a ridiculously low valuation, so I'm holding till about 1000 or more.
What's my point? That there are some good stocks out there that are worth buying. Especially in the face of the recent stellar results everyone has announced. Heck, even Reliance is an amazing buy at these prices (remember, it has a sub 20 P/E, and has consistently grown at more than 25% in the last three years).
And in the same vein, there are bad stocks. There are stocks like GMR Infrastructure which are still being given an 100 P/E or so after their last results. This is crazy. I will hold my opinion on Naukri (Info Edge) until their results are out, but even they have a ridiculously high valuation. All real estate stocks are at insane levels. Don't buy such companies.
But do not believe the skeptics right away. The sun has not set on the bull market. Not in this year. I have bought an exchange traded fund, the NiftyBEES, which tracks the Nifty- I believe that within three years, I will see a return of 50%. Individual stocks of course, are bigger growth stories than that; I'm buying my picks.
Posted in Commentary