Archive for September, 2007

Featured Comment: What is a rights issue?

10 comments Written on September 28th, 2007 by
Categories: Stocks
Sujit asks:
I am not sure what a rights issue is, something like, the Indian Hotels Co is going to bring in, thats the news today. Suppose I own a 100 shares of Indian Hotels, then whats the implication for me?? Please comment.
Rights issues are fresh shares issued only to existing shareholders at a price. So each shareholder gets to buy a certain number of shares, based on their current holding.

A 1:5 rights issue means every shareholder gets to buy 1 share for every 5 they currentl hold, by paying a certain sum of money per share. It's not free shares, it's shares at a price, but you get absolute right to own those shares at that price (unlike IPOs where there is a lottery and such).

The amount per share is usually lesser than the current stock price, given that shareholders will exercise their right and the number of shares will increase, thus reducing EPS. For example, in 2005 Bata had a rights issue at Rs. 54 (I think it was one share for every five held). The market price of Bata at the time the issue was on, was Rs. 95. But after the rights issue, the share fell to Rs. 84 (proportionately because you got one more share for the 10 Rs.)

Rights issues are cheaper than going for full blown IPOs or Follow on public offers. But you as a shareholder MUST exercise the right otherwise you lose the price. In the Bata example above the market price fell by Rs. 10 after the issue - if you had not bought, you would have lost Rs. 10 per share (more than 10%!).

The only people that benefit if you don't subscribe are other or large investors who put in extra money for additional subscriptions (for any unsubscribed amounts).

In the Indian hotels case, please check the wording. I have a feeling the issue is for non-convertible debentures at 6% - not exactly a rights issue.

I’ve exited RNRL

9 comments Written on September 27th, 2007 by
Categories: Stocks, TradingUpdate
As of 5 minutes ago, I am now out of the RNRL trade. I bought at 78 last Friday and watched it move to 93 on Monday. It hung around and today has shown a dip to 85. I sold at 87, a profit of Rs. 9 (11.5%). That's about Rs. 1150 on an investment of 10,000.

Just a post to mark the trade.

Featured Comment: Planning for term insurance early

23 comments Written on September 26th, 2007 by
Categories: Insurance
Many commenters on this blog post excellent comments and I'll try to feature some of them as we go along. An interesting question by Abhijit on my "How Much Insurance Do You Need?" post with the following query:
I am 24 & my annual income is 3.3 lakhs.
I want to buy a term plan but I have a few queries?
1. What risk cover shud I go for? I am thinking of 20lakh? Is it enough?

2. What is the term that I shud select? Most people suggest to go for the maximum term.

3. Shud I add riders like accident rider & critical illness rider to the base term policy?
I don't know if you have any loans or family that is dependant on you, Abhijit but let me assume that:
a) You have no dependents currently
b) and you have no loans at the moment.

Let's now see. Why do you need insurance? To cover your loans and for your family or dependants to be able to live nicely in case something happens to you. Currently you don't have both, but I'm sure you will acquire both debt and family over time.

The maximum term policy you can get will last you about 35 years, when your age will be 59. Most policies are of only 30 years. So you'll be between 54 and 59 when the term ends.

Consider this: you marry and have two children, and let us say you are now 55 years old. Your cover has vanished, but your children still need money for either their education or marriage, and your wife will need to have money to survive for the rest of her life (which could be 20 more years). And of course you need to have to pay back that housing loan you took in the middle to finance your home purchase.

Exactly how much will they need? Let's consider today's money. A typical education or marriage plan should keep 5-10 lakhs of today's money. Two children = 20 lakhs. A family may need about 25,000 per month to cover standard expenses. That's 3 lakhs a year, for which you need a corpus of about 50 lakhs (6% interest per year).

That means at age 55, you need to have 50 lakhs for a 20 year expense, and 20 lakhs for your children's futures, which is about 75 lakhs. Add a little bit here and there for hospital costs, paying back a home loan etc. and you might end up with a higher figure, but let's consider 75 lakhs.

Consider 5% inflation, over 20 years. That gives you a realistic figure of 2 crores. You need to have Rs. 2 crores of insurance by age 55.

But to take that now will be crazy! Because at your age, you'll pay about Rs. 300 per lakh, which for 2 crores is about Rs. 60,000 per year (plus service tax). Considering you make about 27,500 per month, this is more than two month's salary!

And the bigger problem is: it only covers you till age 55. In all probability you need cover longer than that, at least till age 60, perhaps even higher.

Now what I would suggest is: Instead of taking one plan now, take a 35 year plan (LIC has one) now for about Rs. 25 lakhs (Amulya Jeevan). That will cost about 7500 per year.

Then, next year (2008), take another policy for 25 lakhs for s 35 year term. Same again in 2009 and 2010. Now you have four policies, for a coverage of Rs. 1 crore that will cost you around Rs. 30,000 a year, which should be well within your budget in 2010.

By this time you will have savings as well, and perhaps a housing loan. Based on that, reassess how much insurance you will need based on future projections of your costs, and plan out a 30 year term policy when you are around age 30. Again, you can spread the next round over a couple years as well.

The good thing about this is that if for any reason you suddenly come into a lot of money (like some stock options working out, or a higher paying job or even a move abroad) all you need to do is to stop paying the money. Of course you get nothing back, but for this quantum of insurance this is the cheapest options. (for policies where you get your money back, 25 lakh cover needs around 25,000 a year).

Should you take accident cover? Some policies provide for "double" your sum assured in case of an accidental death. Given that in the first few years the chances of accidents are far more than the chance of a health related disease. So I would say take the rider and reduce the amount of insurance (instead of 25 take 20 lakhs instead).

Critical illness is a very badly worded policy in India. Please check every single term and condition, you may find that the premium you pay is simply not worth it. For instance some CI policies include cancer but not breast cancer or throat cancer, heart attacks but not with certain cases etc. Please check the conditions carefully before you take it - and consider whether it's worth it at all.

Let me also say that it's fantastic to see someone plan for insurance so early in life. At your age, I was doing things that were very likely to kill me, and I didn't even think about insurance! Well done. Wish you all the best.

Transaction Updates:

9 comments Written on September 24th, 2007 by
Categories: Commentary, Futures, Options, Stocks, TradingUpdate
Some updates on the transaction front. (Continuing from here)

Bartronics hit my trailing stop loss (last high: 285, today's price reached 257). I sold at 255. From my purchase price of Rs. 201, this is a Rs. 54 profit in less than four weeks, a profit of 27%. My net gain on this Rs. 10,000 investment was Rs. 2,700 (booked).

United Spirits, another momentum player I had picked, hit near my 10% stop loss within a few days! I had bought a few at Rs. 1848 and the price reached too close to Rs. 1700 for my comfort (which was my stop loss, a little less than 10% but more easier to calculate). I sold at 1735, a loss of Rs. 110 per share. This is a net loss of Rs. 660 (I had 6 shares, close to 10K invested).

Exited parts of Ranbaxy and DRL. I know I had mentioned them as my longer term picks, but right now I am more into the momentum theory and want to pare down my longer term positions. With the dollar weak, I see these stocks underperforming in the near term, which is my current investing horizon.

Kamat Hotels is still doing well, at 175. I continue to hold.

I bought about 10K worth of Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) at Rs. 78 just before close on Friday. It's up about 22% today, at 93. Trailing stop loss moved up to 84.

Futures and Options: A Nifty play today - bought 50 Nifty at 4912 and sold at 4942, a profit of Rs. 1,500 for an investment of Rs. 23,000. Intraday, very fast move, would not advise anyone else to take it.

New F&O position: Bought one lot of RIL October future. Very interesting stock, makes acquisition news and has good stuff coming along: I expect great refining margins, EPS rise (and PE contraction) through the IPCL acquisition (which has lower PE than reliance) and some interesting Foreign exchange gains from its FCCB loans. Stop loss is 2250 (closer because this is a leveraged future).

All added up, I've booked net profits of Rs. 9,000 (net of losses) and there is about Rs. 3,000 of unbooked profits in teh positions, with a total investment of about Rs. 60,000. Counting just the booked amount, this is about 15% in a month.

At the end of September I will produce a full trading diary which details my trades (if any of you are interested of course).

Note: The quantities and amounts above have been modified proportionately.

Another note: This is an extremely risky strategy. I could have been purely lucky, and the same luck may not occur to you. To me this is money I can afford to lose, you may not be in the same position. Do not try to repeat what I'm doing unless you are fully aware of the fact that you may lose ALL your money. This is a post purely for educational purposes. I will maintain a more detailed trading log.

Market hits 16K, Dollar below 40 and I have Madras Eye

6 comments Written on September 20th, 2007 by
Categories: Commentary
Sorry for not posting this news yesterday - I'm down with conjunctivitis and staring at a white screen has been a little difficult.

The Sensex has hit 16,000! Great moment to rejoice! Break out the champagne or exchange barbie dolls (ala CNBC TV18, and the exercise even had commenters like Sudarshan Sukhani demand it). This is the beginning of the euphoria, the madness that works wonders in big bull markets. I don't like to say "I predicted this" because predictions are stupid and wayward. But I do want to say this - the euphoria is visible, and if you are an investor you should be extremely wary.

This doesn't mean you should miss the bus. There was euphoria in the US in 1996 - that is when Alan Greenspan uttered his famous words "Irrational Exuberance". The DOW was around 6500 then, and it never has come down that low since. Even after 2000, the low was 7000+ - meaning, if you had listened to Greenspan and sold, you would be no better off even at the lowest day when exuberance had gone.

So my funda is to ride the wave but stay anchored to shore. A rising tide will lift all ships, including the very stupid ones, and when the tide goes away the saying goes that you find out how many clothes people are wearing. My theory is: When the tide goes away you should be lazing on the beach.

All that the above means is: Maintain strict stop losses, and don't stay in cash. Invest in moving stocks, and the fast moving ones. I put some money in Suzlon before I left (at 1381), and it's at 1500 today, about 10% higher. My Reliance stock - which I bought at 2012 before I left is nearly 2200 today, another 10% there. I lost some in United Spirits - bought at 1848 yesterday and it's at 1760 or so, close to my stop loss but not there yet. Still, I'm net up - and Bartronics has added on another little bit, and so has Kamat Hotels. No point asking questions why these stocks are rising - there is no real reason for them to - but I'm planning to make some money while the fever lasts.

Why I think this is irrational exuberance (as compared to rational, which is a far more understandable thing) is that stock markets are necessarily short term in outlook and will look at one year forward, at the maximum. Interest rates are high, growth is slowing (industrial output was far lower than earlier), and the global economies are showing signs of calming down.

And most of all, the dollar is below 40 - it was at 39.9 when I last checked. That's a serious loser for tech stocks, who will have to do really big moves to try and get their margins back. This probably means the end of the rapid salary hikes to staff, and IT/BPO is what has spawned huge interest in realty stocks and auto. Meaning that less houses will be sold (combined with high interest rates) and auto will continue to be hit.

Oil is at an all time high - above $80 - but this is partially cushioned by the falling dollar. Eventually the dollar slide will stop (as exporters complain and RBI steps in) and the rising prices of oil will hit us, meaning losses by oil marketing companies (BPCL, HPCL, IOC), further hits to Auto since the government will be forced to raise oil prices a little bit.

Today we will ignore these factors, because today is not a day to think of bad things. These always appear AFTER a crash, mysteriously vanishing during an upswing. So while no one cares about them - enjoy the ride. But remember there is a big downward move against you and plan against it.

Some people say RBI will reduce interest rates. And the fed rate will fuel the Indian economy. I don't think so. Firstly the subprime problem isn't over - it's just temporarily out of whack. Inflation will come back and Bernanke will jump on the rates again. And given oil prices today, RBI's move to lower interest rates will fuel inflation and so will a oil price hike in India. Remember that Chidambaram is going to be less worried about a stock market than inflation when elections are looming close; the life of an interest rate cut is going to be small, if it happens.

Will the RBI control the dollar back to Rs. 40? Well, considering that companies like Tata Steel, Bharti, Reliance etc. make huge foreign currency gains on their foreign loans when the dollar slides, the argument will hold both ways - it looks like the government is trying other stuff rather than controlling the rupee, like giving exporters sops, not charging them service tax etc. So the dollar slide will (and must) continue.

And finally, will the market move up> I certainly think so. This is the time to get money into the market and watch the ticker at the end of every day, ensuring I get out when my losses are minimal.

Note: This is risky. I am doing it, that doesn't mean you should. Don't try this because I am, for I am willing to lose money. Your money may be more sacred.

A 5 day holiday and some performance updates

6 comments Written on September 13th, 2007 by
Categories: Futures, Options, Stocks, TradingUpdate
I'm taking a break till next Tuesday for an outstation holiday. I wanted to post a quick message about my momentum moves.

Two weeks ago, I decided the Nifty wasn't going anywhere and had talked about a last minute put option I wrote before the last expiry. I then decided to do a quick two-four week strategy on some stocks which I thought would move fast, and get out of the trade soon.

First pick: Bartronics at 201. It moved up nearly 10% that day - it was up from a 180+ - and I decided this was the beginning of a move. Had been watching the stock for a while; I don't care about the fundamentals because this was a momentum call. I'm still holding it because it hasn't moved against me - current price: 253. Profit (unbooked): 25%. I continue to hold with a stop loss at 230. Investment: Approx Rs. 10K, profit Rs. 2,500 unbooked.

Another mover: NIIT Technologies. This stock started moving and I picked it up at 307. The momentum carried it through to 360, and it reversed back to 340 yesterday, when I sold at about 341. Profit (booked): 11%. Invested Rs. 10,000, made Rs. 3,000.

F&O moves: Last monday, I wrote a straddle - sold a 4450 put and a 4500 call, collecting Rs. 10,500 as premium for a lot. Bought back today at a net premium of 157, giving me a Rs. 53 profit. Investment (margin net of premium) Rs. 30,000. Profit: Rs. 2,500 (8.5%, booked)

Kamat Hotels: bought at 155, is at 166 currently. I have some longer term stock in, but I bought for momentum. I continue to hold as I see it moving by November. Stop Loss: 155, current unbooked profit: 7%. (Investment: Rs. 10,000, unbooked profit Rs. 750 or so)

For a total investment of Rs. 60,000, I've booked a profit of 5,500 and left about 3,250 unbooked profits. That's 8,750, a profit of about 14.5% in two weeks. This is quite radical, considering the Nifty has moved up only 2% in the entire period.

Soon, I'll try to create a model momentum portfolio with a capital of Rs. 100,000 and demonstrate how I manage it. My new company, Moneyoga, is going to help - we are creating software that will help our users (of which I will be one, of course) create virtual portfolios and track the results online, with details such as biggest losers, biggest winners, average term of holding, max risk and so on. This should be a lot of fun and learning for all.

Note: The quantities of the above have been modified proportionately.

My Long Term Picks

2 comments Written on September 13th, 2007 by
Categories: Stocks
I know I've said this is a short to medium term blog, but given the requirement that some of us need to invest for the long term, I have some stocks that I really like for the 3 to 5 year holding period.

Large Cap: Ashok Leyland
With the new highways coming up soon, the truck traffic is bound to pick up. Interest rates will see a slide in the next year as the Fed reduces rates, and that will increase sales for truck majors - Tata motors is one, but Leyland provides greater upside from its currently (low) P/E of 10 or so. Current price is 37, and I'm looking at between 70 and 100 in the long term.

Small Cap: Kamat Hotels
A second rung hotel chain that has a big hotel in Ecotel, Mumbai and several small/mid size hotels in Pune and Nagpur, this scrip is interesting for the upside potential from its 10 P/E. With a huge FCCB issue convertible at 220+, the company is now getting ready to set up its acquired property in Pune and has more stuff coming up. Good pick below 180, and its current price is 166.

Large Caps: Dr. Reddy's Lab, Ranbaxy
Big pharma and global companies, the two feathers in India's pharma foray are to be watched closely in the next four years. As baby boomers in the US retire, as drugs come off patent, and as research spend starts to materialise, these two will end up making a significant margin increase. They're not cheap but have a lot of potential. (Ranbaxy at 425, DRL at 660)

Mid cap: Axis Bank
Armed with a new name, the new face of UTI Bank is an aggressive bank that's shaking off its past and moving into interesting territory. Watch the space.

A word of caution Firstly - a disclaimer: I either own or have an interest in the above stocks.

Secondly - nothing works over the very long term. You can't buy these stocks and forget about them. If the price drops a huge amount, you must reconsider them. If the financial results show a drop, you must reconsider them. I may not do so for time constraints.

Investing is not about forgetting about where you put your money. If you want to make any real money in the markets, please take a little while to review your positions, at least once a month. I would recommend once a week, but that seems to scare a few people - but why would you not care about the only thing that will work for you, while you're working away for someone else?

Option action shifts: Market likely to move fast

No Comments » Written on September 12th, 2007 by
Categories: Options
Nifty Put options, which were the most heavily traded till the 10th of this month, have slipped; the most action now seems to be in the 4500 and 4600 calls, and some action in the 4500 puts.

Earlier this month, most action was in the puts, mostly 4400 and 4300 levels, and with most negative news out there I figured this was just protection. The law of maximum pain is that no one who tries to insure gets the insurance, so the market stayed choppy but high enough so none of the puts, not even the 4500 puts, were really in the money.

To me it seemed like an opportunity to make money, from a choppy market that doesn't move. (Note: what follows is a very risky trade, so don't do this unless you understand what I'm talking about). I traded a short strangle: Wrote a 4450 put and a 4500 call. Premiums when I wrote them (last monday) were 125 on the put and 85 on the call (with the Nifty future being at 4434). The total premium I collected was Rs. 210 per Nifty, which means Rs. 10,500 per lot - each lot is equal to 50 nifty. Margin per lot = Rs. 40,000 approximately.

Current prices for the straddle are around 90 for the put and 73 on the call - so if I square off tomorrow (with the prices staying put) I will pay Rs. 163 - a net profit of Rs. 47 per Nifty = around Rs. 2400 per lot. On an investment of Rs. 40,000 that's not too bad a return for a week - about 6%. I would hold longer but I'm taking a holiday later this week and don't want to worry about it when I'm in Goa.

There's another reason I want to exit - the option action has shifted. Not just have the puts lost interest, there seems to be more interest on the speculatory side - people writing puts and calls and trying to make money from the straddles now. It's the wrong time to try it - the action has shifted, and I now see a unidirectional move for the remaining part of this month. Only problem: I can't figure out which direction, yet.

The long month (October options) are seeing huge levels of interest. Again, most of the interest seems to be on the writing straddle/strangle strategies and I'm afraid the maximum pain law is going to hurt them the most. One "black swan" event will wipe them out - and it seems to be the right time for such an event, since money is being bet on the fact that the market WILL NOT MOVE. Ever so often, that assumption does not hold.