Archive for January, 2008

Subprime Hits India

4 comments Written on January 7th, 2008 by
Categories: ICICI Bank
From Rediff:
State Bank of India, ICICI Bank , Bank of Baroda and Bank of India are set to book mark-to-market losses on the exposures of their foreign offices to credit derivatives, with the spreads on these widening since international lenders turned risk-averse following the crisis in the US subprime (or high-risk home loan) market.
Exposures of ICICI bank are about $1.5 billion, of which the article says mark-to-market losses are about 5-10%, meaning between 300 and 600 crore. That's about 30-60% of their quarterly net profit. SBI has about $1 billion and the impact to them is about 10-25% of their quarterly net profit (1600 cr) .

Disclosure: Short ICICI.

Minformed Investing?

5 comments Written on January 6th, 2008 by
Categories: Commentary
An article by Will McClatchy blames SEBI for being anti-foreign investors. (Hat Tip: Manish Jain)
The top gaining exchange-traded fund of 2007 is going out in style. Indian securities regulators have shut the door on all exchange-traded products, and Barclays' iPath MSCI India Exchange Traded Note (NYSEarca:INP) is likely on the way out. Shareholders made out splendidly with 88% gains last year, but it's a gentle reminder of how dependent exchange-traded products are on open capital markets.

In November, the Securities and Exchange Board of India announced plans to restrict offshore derivative instruments, which sounds mildly nefarious except for the fact that SEBI has made it increasingly difficult for foreigners to buy Indian stocks directly. ETFs have been out of the question; now the door is closing on ETNs, or Exchange-Traded Notes.

Blaming SEBI is easy; understand though that the ETNs themselves were to blame. SEBI had made it very clear, when it opened the door to PNs on derivatives, that there would be a five year window by which time all PN issuers would be required to name the end owners of these notes. The latest SEBI order is exactly 18 months away from that deadline, which is why PNs against derivatives have been asked to unwind in that timeframe. These ETNs conveniently forgot those rules and now hide behind the excuse of Indian bureaucracy, when it was really their problem.

Secondly, the author portrays it as a problem for ETNs per se. It is not. The issue is only for derivatives, i.e. notes against futures or options. ETN issuers can still register as FIIs (something that shouldn't be an issue for someone like Barclays, for heavens sake) and issue notes against direct stock.

The author says "Direct stock ownership is still possible in India; just don't try to sell in a hurry." This is absurd. SEBI has no restrictions on selling in a hurry or rapid transactions. Nobody cares if you sell, short-sell, or buy, just do it in the right way - issuing ODIs against derivatives is a secondary market where SEBI has no regulatory control. One leg is not under SEBI's (or anyones) regulation - and that is what they corrected. SEBI still maintains that it will offer FII status to anyone that is regulated by a body outside India.

SEBI's decision has been endorsed by the Finance Ministry and RBI, which wants to control foreign inflows in the short term (and they've done so).

The article fails to notice, however, that since the "crisis", our market has recovered, FII flows have eased back, and life is weirdly back to normal when the whole world's heart flutters. What SEBI has done is ease speculatory flows in an environment when the pressure to liquidate (because of the subprime woes) would have been intense - note that despite the US problem, FIIs aren't really pulling out in hordes, because if they unwound their existing notes, they don't get to put the money back in again.

A phenomenal time to introduce this law. It'll only work in the short term of course, because if the situation gets really bad, nobody will care about coming back in and run out the door like headless chickens.

But I can't believe that an article would actually claim that a lassez-faire approach to regulation is the recommended course of action. The entire US crisis at this point is due to lack of proper regulation, not despite it. And some sense a few years ago would have cushioned the impact, something admitted by the US Fed themselves.

For what it's worth, I think SEBI is restrictive even to Indian investors (for instance, you can't have Indian Hedge funds using Indian investors' money), and I must say I want those conditions off. We finally got the short selling rules, and I'm sure the rest will come too.

Reliance Power Will Pay 80 cr. to Licence Their Own Logo

8 comments Written on January 6th, 2008 by
Categories: IPO
In Reliance Power's Red Herring Prospectus, page 25 of the PDF, there's a phrase worth watching:
The [Reliance Power] trademark, name and logo do not belong to us. They have been licensed to us under a brand license agreement with ADAV. We are required to pay to ADAV up to Rs. 800 million for these rights. The timing and amount of the payment (subject to the Rs. 800 million limit) will be determined in ADAV’s sole discretion. As of the date of this Red Herring Prospectus, we have not paid any amounts as royalty for the use of the trademark and logo. This agreement can be terminated by ADAV upon the occurrence of certain events such as any breach by us of the terms of this agreement or any applicable law, regulation or industry standard or any change in control of our company.

If the license is revoked, we may no longer be able to use the [Reliance Power] trademark, name or logo in connection with our business and, consequently, we may be unable to capitalize on our brand recognition.

So Anil Dhirubhai Ambani's group gets 80 cr. for Reliance Power's use of its own logo. And they can demand it anytime they like. I guess such things are commonplace like HLL paying Unilever for international brand royalty and GBN not even owning its own web site and so on, but it still seems to me as funny money. Just label it something and suddenly shareholders money goes into a private pocket.

For getting their shares for Rs. 10 each (some as late as 2007) and making the general public pay Rs. 450 for them, one would think ADAG would say "Go use the logo for free", but I guess that's not how it works. Such is life.

Disclosure: I own Reliance Energy shares. I won't apply for the Reliance Power IPO, but may decide to trade it after it's listed. More information on this IPO coming later.

Chidambaram Asks Banks To Lower Rates

No Comments » Written on January 5th, 2008 by
Categories: Commentary
The Finance Minister, P. Chidambaram, asked banks to reduce interest rates by 0.5% (both lending and deposit rates).

This may signal a change of stance by the government and eventually the RBI, to push credit growth up. Now banks may listen and rates may come down (given the RBI reduces its benchmark rates) - and if this happens, the bank index (BANKNIFTY) may move up substantially.

You can buy the Bank Bees (BANKBEES) which is a simply way to buy the BANKNIFTY, or simply the BANKNIFTY futures. Unfortunately no options trade on that index, otherwise they would be a good buy. The problem isn't that options are not allowed, but that no one will buy or sell them!

The other sector to track then, is Auto. Car and Two Wheeler manufacturers have been reeling under the pressure of high rates, as even a 0.5% hike can make a vehicle unaffordable. If the rates come down, car loans (which are mostly fixed rate) will likely pick up.

If interest rates reduce, inflation tends to go up, but it seems to be under 4% today. Controllable? Perhaps, but if we have an interest rate reduction and simultaneously a price hike on fuel, inflation may spiral up. Who said life is boring?

Disclosure: I hold Canara Bank.

Nifty’s P/E is 27

3 comments Written on January 4th, 2008 by
Categories: Commentary
The Nifty P/E is now officially 27. This is close to being the most expensive Nifty in the last eight years:

It's tough to decide where to go, but earnings season is on now, and in Feb we should revisit and see where the P/E lies.

What would I buy in 2008?

8 comments Written on January 2nd, 2008 by
Categories: Stocks
2008 is here and have I changed my bearish stance? To a certain extent I have. I still think there is value in there worth buying but to be honest there is just too much happening that is scary as well. But before I outline those, here are my choices for the year:

Canara Bank

Which the bank has run up a bit recently (I bought at 330 on Monday, and it's at 400 today!) the new face and logo of the bank is likely to bring on better customer recall. With over 2500 branches, the bank has a greater reach than HDFC and ICICI bank combined (They have around 1000 branches each) and the EPS last year was around 34. The bank is growing at 15-20% on EPS, but the new look and technology approach should help it grow faster, to an EPS of about 40 by March 08. It's also gaining on momentum, and to me technicals are quite important, as they show investor sentiment on the stock.

Ranbaxy, DRL

These guys need to be re-rated, and should show strong earnings growth. The dollar is a bummer, though.

Reliance Industries

Regardless of its recent runup, the stock looks poised to benefit from RPL starting activity, the retail chain starting to show traction, the Vimal re-launch, Exploration and discovery and from the gas pipelines finally flowing. I think this stock still has a long way to go, though you may see some kind of correction relative to the whole market in between.

Why no more?

There are more value plays perhaps but I don't want to know about them. This is still a momentum market, and the signs from the US are not at all good. With oil rising to $100 per barrel, life will get quite difficult on all players, and inflation will raise its head soon.

Secondly our market is overheated. At a 25 P/E we are pushing the envelope. To tell you NOT to invest would be stupid, and I now believe the market has a while to go before we come crashing down. It looks like a 21,000 on the Sensex or a 6,500 on the Nifty will still not faze investors, and I would not be surprised if we surpass that.

Liquidity is another issue - with trusts getting the equity go-ahead, pension funds allowed to invest in the markets, and all sorts of liquidity easing happening, we may be in for a wild ride. But it's still not a good time to invest for the long term. The short term, yes. I have money in there that'll get out as soon as we see a reversal, purely because I don't trust the market.

If you want to take advantage, buy indices instead - the Nifty Midcap 50, or the Junior BeEs. And get out when there is a trend reversal!

Disclosure: I own the above stocks.

Mini Contracts and No Mutual Fund Entry Load

4 comments Written on January 1st, 2008 by
Categories: Commentary, Futures, MutualFunds
Mini Contracts
NSE has introduced "mini-contracts" on the NIFTY. These are exactly the same as the futures contracts on the Nifty, but have a lot size of 20 instead of 50. The new symbol is MINIFTY.

The idea is to give investors a smaller contract size (approx. 1 lakh) to work with instead of the 3 lakh plus contract when you buy the NIFTY. Lot lesser margin - typically Rs. 10,000 or so - and provides good hedging opportunities for sub-10-lakh investors. Also, there may be opportunities when you have two derivatives contracts on the same underlying. While the futures themselves will be closely traded and not provide too much room for arbitrage, the options contracts may provide some insight. Let's see how it pans out.

No more entry load
Mutual Fund investors can rejoice. SEBI has removed the entry load for all investments made directly to the fund house. Meaning, applications made directly by way of the Internet, Direct application to the AMC where no broker is involved.

This saves you 2.25% (usual entry load) and reduces net fund expenses (since no trailing loads need to be paid). If you invest Rs. 5 lakhs in mutual funds, this is a saving of over Rs. 10,000! Even for a one lakh tax saving investment, you end up saving around Rs. 2,250.

This is applicable from January 4. How it will work is something I have to research myself, and I'll do that after Jan 4. But note that you will never need to buy Mutual Funds directly from a broker. If you're doing your own research, don't pay someone else.

(Read Value Research for good comparisons and articles on funds)

Note: Buying funds from your online demat account like ICICI Direct, Sharekhan or Reliance Money does not excuse you from the entry load. You must buy from the mutual fund's website or directly give your application to the mutual fund, striking away the column were "distributor code" is written. Otherwise you will pay the entry load.

Also note that ICICI mutual fund is different from ICICI Bank which in turn is different from ICICI Direct. If you give your application in the bank's branch, you will still be charged an entry load. You should confirm with the Asset Management Company (AMC) before you submit an application, about how you can completely avoid the entry load.

Happy New Year

1 Comment » Written on January 1st, 2008 by
Categories: Uncategorized
Welcome to a New Year, and wishes to all my readers for a very happy, prosperous and thrilling 2008.

I thought of having a resolution, but it was too much effort. I'm moving to Mumbai in mid-January and that move, plus the whole scale-up/find-funding/grow-business effort will take up most of my professional time. At a personal level I must find more time to spend with family and of course, as usual, I plan to exercise.

Enjoy the new year, folks!