Archive for February, 2008

Budget 2008: Short Term Cap Gains Up, Service Tax Extras and Relief

6 comments Written on February 29th, 2008 by
Categories: Budget2008

Short Term Capital Gains Tax up to 15%

The FM has rationalised this by saying it needs to be equal to dividend distribution tax, and to promote longer term investing.

STT will be a business expense, and Introduction of CTT

Securities Transaction Tax is no longer an advance tax, it's a set off against income, as a business expense. Doesn't affect the salaried, only those that file business income returns.

On the lines of STT, a tax called Commodities Transaction Tax will be paid by commodity traders

Stock Exchanges, Clearing houses, AMC services to ULIPs to pay service tax

Earlier, these services were out of the service tax net. Now they're in. Meaning you will probably need to pay a wee bit more on your transactions on stock exchanges. And please, for heaven's sake, don't buy ULIPs.

Banking Cash Tax OUT the door

I don't know who ever paid this tax, but they don't have to pay it any more. So withdraw as much cash as you like. Just make sure it's in your account first.

Service Tax limit up to Rs.10 lakhs

Nice for small companies like ours or for startups who are renting offices for less than 10 lakhs a year. You don't need to pay service tax until your turnover crosses Rs. 10 lakhs.

Additional Rs. 15K off for Medical Insurance

If you pay it for your parents.

Budget 2008: Income Tax Slabs Changed

5 comments Written on February 29th, 2008 by
Categories: Budget2008, IncomeTax
Update: Click here to find out how much you save on tax in [the year starting April] 2008. compared to 2007.

Just finished the Budget speech. Income tax slabs have been changed.

  • Upto Rs. 1.5 lakhs: No tax. Yay.
  • 1.5 to 3 lakhs: 10%.
  • 3 to 5 lakhs: 20%.
  • Above 5 lakhs: 30%.
For women the first slab ends at Rs. 1.8 lakhs and for senior citizens, Rs. 2.25 lakhs. Applicable from the April 1 2008 to March 31 2009.

Surcharge of 10% for earnings above Rs. 10 lakhs stays.

No change in the 3% cess either.

Savings:
1. Earn a net income (after all deductions, 80Cs etc.) of Rs. 2 lakhs and you'd save Rs. 4,000 in taxes. (4K vs. 9K)
2. For Rs. 4 lakhs, you save about Rs. 34,000 as compared to last year. (35K vs 69K)
3. For Rs. 8 lakhs, your saving is Rs. 44,000. (1.45L vs. 1.89L)
4. For Rs. 12 lakhs you save about 49K. (2.91L vs. 340L) [This has a 10% surcharge so savings are higher]

Higher incomes would save about the same - about 4K a month, approximately. Net effect of this is positive for people, and hugely positive for people earning below 5 lakhs (effectively half their taxes are saved).

[Will cover rest of the budget items separately]

Sebi Makes Mutual Funds Charge You More

No Comments » Written on February 28th, 2008 by
Categories: MutualFunds
The latest from the SEBI stable is:
The rapid fire manner in which the standard warning “Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read the offer document carefully before investing” is recited in the audio visual and audio media renders it unintelligible to the viewer / listener.

In order to improve the manner in which the said message is conveyed to the investors it has been decided in consultation with AMFI that with effect from April 1, 2008:

  • the time for display and voice over of the standard warning be enhanced to five seconds in audio visual advertisements.
  • in case of audio advertisements the standard warning shall be read in an easily understandable manner over a period of five seconds.
The intentions are good. Fund ads used to say:

...fundu ad showing people doing great things with money...

then the disclaimer:

"Mutualfundsarsbjectomarketriskplisrdtheoffrdocmentcarfulybeforinvsting".

Or it sounded like that. Why? Because, SEBI mandates that it is necessary to put this info on all ads. (There *is* a more legible sentence by the way) Because, like we read health warnings on cigarette packs and don't smoke, we read MSG warnings on food labels and don't eat them, we see "these stunts are performed by professionals, do not try to imitate them" and our children DON'T imitate them, we will read these warnings and behave similarly.

(If the other examples are any indication, people will simply buy more funds)

Anyhow, someone at SEBI was unhappy at the speed of the above sentence, since people will not understand it. So they have now mandated that this be mentioned in five seconds, so you get more time to ignore it.

What will this achieve? Only one thing. The cost to you and me is going to go up. These ads cost a bomb. And an extra five seconds will just increase ad costs, and the funds don't care, they'll just charge us anyhow! The other option is to not advertise, but that means fewer investors and therefore lesser other people to share their costs. Still means we are charged more. All SEBI has done is to ensure we, the retail investors, pay more to be warned that the products we are buying are unsafe.

Why not simply educate people directly instead? No-one benefits except the media companies. So take a 5 second slot and put a cost to it - say Rs.1 lakh. If a typical ad is 30 seconds, we are saying that the additional cost is about 20% (25 seconds ad, 5 seconds warning) Ask each fund house to reveal it's tv/radio ad expenses and take about 10% of all ad expenses into an "education fund", whose only goal is to educate investors about the risks involved in mutual funds. This is going to be a huge corpus.

Then, use that money to educate mutual fund owners. For every new mutual fund unit holder, send them a printed mailer with information on how their funds MAY LOSE MONEY. And put in statistics in there about how funds have lost money in the past. And tell them the ongoing costs of their fund (available with AMFI).

If you asked me I would say this is far more effective. And I wouldn't mind pitching in to help SEBI implement this either, by way of creating data or working with investor groups locally. But asking mutual funds to spend more is NOT the answer.

Long Term Nifty Options from March 3

4 comments Written on February 28th, 2008 by
Categories: Options
NSE has announced new longer term Nifty options, starting March 3.

Apart from the current structure (Current Month, Next Month and Far Month) there will be options maturing every Quarter (March, June, September, December). The next three quarters will be covered.

Add to this half yearlies (Jun, Dec) for the next five semis.

Nothing else is different really - lot size, ranges etc. are the same. For the quarterlies, strike prices are 8-1-8 instead of the 6-1-6 of other options. (8 strikes out of the money, 1 at the money, and 8 strikes in the money).

There has been low liquidity in the far month, even with Nifty options. But with more players coming in, there should be a lot more in this field going forward.

Why I Am Very Bullish On Gold

12 comments Written on February 27th, 2008 by
Categories: Commentary
Not really the ten reasons, but one step at a time.
  • So the US economy is crapping out. Big deal? Yessir, very big deal. Dollar hits big time lows. What happens then?
  • Look, a lot of us Asian Economies including the guys who have lots of oil and desert, have our bloody reserves in dollars. Ok?
  • And if you flush the dollar down the toilet like the US is most likely to do with some grandslam rescue attempts to save some lousy bond insurers, we Asian Economies don't know what the frick to do with our reserves.
  • Oh you small little Asian Economies you say. Dude, get real. This is a huge deal, a few trillion dollars. China has some 1.5 trillion, Saudi Arabia has about 800 bn, and with Korea, Singapore, India etc. I think we'd top the 3 trillion mark. Don't even count Japan.
  • So what reserve currency if not the dollar? Uhm, the Euro? No thank you, you guys are even more clueless and more divided in a recession than we can trust. The pound sterling? Not very different from the dollar, and now we can't understand the accent either, depending on which part of the UK you're talking about.
  • So we'll set up sovereign funds, maybe. But what are we going to buy? The US won't let us touch defense etc. or even big telcos, and these are the only things worth buying in a recession. At least on the scale these funds want to think about.
  • Latin America, yes. Now good place for sovereign funds to invest. Unfortunately, we are also clueless out here and can't figure out Portugese or Spanish, so we will give that a miss, regardless of how good the investment might be.
  • That leaves precious metals. We had a gold reserve earlier but it's gone now, but gold is still worth it. But which bugger will go buy at this obscene price? Answer: Everyone. They're all waiting for someone to jump in and then everyone's in.
  • When these guys talk some gazillion trillion dollars, gold is likely to jump up a little bit. And when it goes too high it's likely to get some regulatory interest (like saying "we'll control the price of gold") which will again cause it to shoot through the roof because that's how the market works.
  • If the world works like I said, someone who bought gold now would still make a lot of money.
So I would buy Gold. As an Exchange Traded Fund. , here I come. (My official excuse is that I'm investing for my son's future)

FIIs : Unwind P-Notes Sold To Individuals Within One Year

No Comments » Written on February 27th, 2008 by
Categories: Commentary
After the big drama in October 2007, it seemed like FIIs were getting the short end of the stick. (I still think they created a big fuss out of nothing. The US SEC is far more restrictive for its own exchanges.)

Having dug out the details in the SEBI FII Regulations (Section 15A):

A Foreign Institutional Investor or sub account may issue, deal in or hold, off-shore derivative instruments such as Participatory Notes, Equity Linked Notes or any other similar instruments against underlying securities, listed or proposed to be listed on any stock exchange in India, only in favour of those entities which are regulated by any relevant regulatory authority in the countries of their incorporation or establishment, subject to compliance of "know your client" requirement:

Provided that if any such instrument has already been issued, prior to 3rd February 2004, to a person other than a regulated entity, contract for such transaction shall expire on maturity of the instrument or within a period of five years from 3rd February, 2004, whichever is earlier.

This means by Feb 3, 2009, all P-Notes (which are "Offshore Derivative Instruments" or ODIs) made out to "unregulated" entities by FIIs or sub-accounts, must be closed. Individuals are definitely unregulated entities.

That's a year from now. And who is impacted? Any US individual investor that holds a P-Note. Like those of Barclays' iPath MSCI India Index ETN. ETFs should not qualify because they're not ODIs (they're actual holdings). ETNs have a slight tax advantage over and ETF in the US.

That means the iPath ETN, which has a due date[1] of 2036, is going to be out of options soon. It has about $1 billion in assets, so that should get unwound in the next 12 months. (Money may flow to ETFs though) I don't know many other P-Note issuers (who issue to individuals) - do you?

They all have to get rid of a lot of issued notes. Chances are, they're going to do it now on an index rebound. Watch your long positions.

[1] (ETNs are financial voodoo-magic. They're disguised as debt when they work like equity, so they have a "due date" and all that).

The American Dream

1 Comment » Written on February 27th, 2008 by
Categories: Uncategorized
[NOTE: Not Safe For Work Or With Kids Around]

Hilarious. You can quite easily replace "America" with "India" and "Red, White and Blue" with "Saffron, White and Green". And it astounds me that I see this and think, "so what else is new".

The U.S. situation – Bullishness Where There’s Only Bull

3 comments Written on February 26th, 2008 by
Categories: Commentary, Subprime
U.S. home foreclosures are up 90% in Jan 2008.
Defaults among subprime borrowers and those unable to meet rising payments on adjustable-rate loans drove foreclosure filings to the highest since August and the second-highest since RealtyTrac started keeping records. About $460 billion of adjustable mortgages are scheduled to reset this year, raising minimum payments for borrowers, according to New York-based analysts at Citigroup Inc.
[Emphasis mine]

The ABX indices are at their lowest.

MBIA has been let off by S&P, who let them keep AAA - but how? They are in no position to make good on any obligations. Anyways, MBIA is not planning to write mortgage insurance for the next 6 months (who will buy from them anyhow?). They're also planning to split their mortgage and munibond insurance businesses over the next few years.

Ambac is still on negative watch and unless they raise significant capital they're going down, it seems.

Yet, both stocks were hugely up yesterday! The market discounts the immediate future, which seems positive (not yet downgraded) versus the real future which is "bust" for these guys, at least the way they are today.

And in India we couldn't care less. A budget is on the way this week, and the stock markets are low volume and buoyant. Not a good sign this, but it's interesting that the very same factors that were involved a month ago are still existing today, more so than in Jan, and yet, we're looking positive.

If FIIs start another round of selling, we're going to see another big round of damage. Until then we may have a good session going up - but since I won't bet on it, I won't trade it. Waiting for some really good news now - it's been a while!