Archive for August, 2008

SOS Trades: Rollovers and Put Close, +75K

1 Comment » Written on August 28th, 2008 by
Categories: ICICI Bank, ShortOnly, Unitech
For the Short Only Strategy, I've had to do some stuff:
  • Rolled over ICICI Bank and Unitech over to the September Futures. Prices are way below, so the rollover (buying back Aug future and selling Sep future) has resulted in a positive cash value.
  • Closed the 4400 put at a price of 186 - a profit of Rs. 47 from about a week ago. For 400 Nifty, this is a booked profit of Rs. 19,200, with brokerage taking about 3k out.
  • You might notice that I've put fairly high values of brokerage in there, but this strategy isn't dependent on low brokerage.
Yes, if I had done this, I would have to pay income tax on the profit. I can't see why that should stop anyone from making a profit.

At this point the SoS deal is up 75.9L. With less than 20% of the cash deployed, the profits are about 1.5% on the whole portfolio, in about two weeks. Too early to say it's good - let's see after six months or so. But I'll keep this blog updated.

Click here for the full spreadsheet.

Disclosure: No current positions. As usual, this is education only, please don't trade this, blah blah blah. You should NEVER consider this to be advice; it's just my own fundas, just for myself.

Pakistan is Floored

No Comments » Written on August 28th, 2008 by
Categories: Commentary
So this is what the folks at the Karachi Stock Exchange have to say:

Fantastic. So prices can't go below Wednesday's closing values. Guess where they are going to stay until this rule is removed? (Hint: Wednesday's closing prices)

The reason markets exist is for price discovery. Not for only going up. It's a good thing SEBI or NSE isn't quite this stupid; though the ridiculous implementation of short selling doesn't take them in the clear.

Banks take you for granted

6 comments Written on August 27th, 2008 by
Categories: Uncategorized
ET: 6 things your bank will never tell you:
You are a valued customer only till you have not availed the services of a bank or till the bank is hoping to gain from you in some way or the other.

However, most banks do start taking you for granted the moment you become their customer.

For instance, while housing finance companies keep luring prospective customers with new schemes and low interest rates, they refuse to extend the same benefit to their existing customers.

To take an example, following the recent CRR and repo rate hikes, ICICI Bank increased its floating home loan interest rate to 12.25 per cent and the fixed rate to 14.75 per cent.

As a fair practice, the new floating rate of 12.25 per cent (which was exorbitant in any case) should have been applicable to both the new as well as existing customers. But surprisingly, the bank hiked the floating rate up to 14 per cent in the case of their existing customers and that too without making it public!

Read the whole thing. While this is said of ICICI Bank, the entire banking system is at fault. What can make them change their ways? A recession?

Hedge Fund Manager wins trade secret case

1 Comment » Written on August 27th, 2008 by
Categories: Commentary
An interesting case of an ex-hedge-fund manager sued for stealing "trade secrets".
Eric Falkenstein isn't your typical 42-year-old hedge fund manager. Instead of trading stocks all day or courting new investors, he spends his time updating his blog, researching equity strategies, and talking to his lawyer. He's a hedge fund portfolio manager who is legally restrained from managing hedge fund portfolios.

But Falkenstein didn't embezzle funds, swindle unsuspecting investors, or violate insider-trading laws. Rather, he quit his job one September day in 2006 and he hasn't been able to work since.

Several months after he resigned, Falkenstein's former employer, Telluride Asset Management in Minneapolis, sued him for stealing the firm's trade secrets and violating its confidentiality agreement.

It seems the case hinged on Falkenstein's use of "mean-variance", which Telluride said was their trade secret. Unfortunately for them, it's existed for a few decades before them, and Falkenstein himself had researched it in his academic years. But they chose to bully him instead - finagling his home computers to try and prove he stole something. That means - he was not allowed to start a fund, or do anything till the case was proven, and to prove the case, Telluride was allowed to search whatever they wanted, even if it meant making Falkenstein umemployable or having no right to a living.

Bullies.

Luckily, Falkenstein stood up to the challenge. He had the money, so he battled it in court - for over 15 months - and maintained a no-comment position, and a few notes in his blog.

Now it seems he's won, or rather Telluride has realized they have no real case. From Falkenblog:

My intellectual property case with my former employer has been settled with prejudice (see here), meaning, both sides agreed to withdraw their claims and cannot refile them. I have no comment on the case or the settlement.
More power to you, Erik.

Read the rest of that entry. It tells you what you should do if your employer is keen to sue. The last one is the best: "Be Rich.". It's quite true - even if you are on the absolute right side of the law, a legal disagreement can kill you purely on costs. It's never about who wins, only about who can afford to lose.

Ranbaxy Open Offer: Download Letter

8 comments Written on August 26th, 2008 by
Categories: Ranbaxy
For all those who have not received the Letter of Offer for the Ranbaxy Open offer at Rs. 737; you can download the letter of offer here.

Process:

  • First go to your depository participant - typically an online account will have a DP linked to your broker - and file an "off-market" DP transfer to:
    Depository Name: NSDL
    DP Name : HSBC Limited
    DP ID Number: IN 300142
    Beneficiary Account Number: 10642118
    People who have their accounts with a DP linked to CDSL (rather than NSDL) must use an "inter depository" form to do this. Make a copy of the offmarket transfer form and the received acknowledgement.
  • Fill out the form in the above download - NOT the withdrawal form, only the letter of acceptance, in full. Enter your DP Name, DP ID and your client ID, and the number of shares you wish to transfer. Take a copy for your records.
  • Submit the form, and a copy of the DP Transfer acknowledgement to any of the Karvy centers listed in the letter of offer.
Note that if you have bought the shares in the last year, you will be charged short term capital gains tax at full rates (i.e. 33.99% at the highest slab). For shares held for more than a year, the rate is 20.6% (indexed) or 10.3% (non-indexed). Tax is not deducted at source, so you will be required to pay it yourself. The first date for individuals to file advance tax (and thus, save yourself of a penalty) is December 15 - so do pay up before that date.

You should receive the money after September 19, as a crossed cheque, by registered post. All unaccepted shares (only 1/3rd of the offered shares are likely to be accepted) will be transferred back to you on that date.

Of course, if you don't want this hassle you might as well sell in the open market today at the price of Rs. 512.

RBI Selling Dollars?

No Comments » Written on August 25th, 2008 by
Categories: Commentary
RBI's latest forex reserve page shows that we now have $296 billion with us. The rupee doesn't seem to give a hoot. It's trading at 43.78 to the dollar, which is pretty darn high.

FIIs are selling. Oil's stuck at 115. Is the RBI losing ground to the traders? They have enough money to sustain, but do they have the strength to go through with it? It will be fantastic if they are able to drive the dollar down to 40 - the current strength is quite temporary, when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac break, the rescue effort should cause major weakening; a good time to make the rupee hit new highs.

Interviewed: Moneyoga’s change of plans

2 comments Written on August 25th, 2008 by
Categories: Moneyoga
Kamla Bhatt has interviewed me on our recent change in plans - to move to the new algorithmic trading concept.
The point is not to predict; it’s to react. You cannot control what will happen; you can only control your reaction when it happens.

Unfortunately we tend to panic as a group. Our markets have had age-old sayings - the equity markets will always turn around, that real estate prices can never go DOWN, that we are “decoupled” from the U.S. credit crisis, that our banking system is much more robust, that inflation is no big deal. Slowly and steadily, each of these phrases is getting question marks suffixed. Tomorrow there will be more questions, and very few answers. But I like to say - there is always money to be made from the markets. Greed, Fear, Panic or Listlessness, every emotion can have a positive rupee value associated with it.

Infy bags Axon for 3300 cr.

No Comments » Written on August 25th, 2008 by
Categories: Infosys
Infy news: it has just bought Axon group for Rs. 3,300 cr. Axon is listed in the UK, and makes about Rs. 160 cr. (Rs. 20 billion) a year in net profit.

For Infy, the EPS addition is about Rs. 3 per share. They will lose the interest/dividend income on the 3,300 cr. which at 7% comes to 230 cr. so net-net this deal will probably break even on EPS in the near term.

There might be synergies - moving work to India, consolidation of management and sales etc. But this is a pretty expensive deal - at a P/E of 20, they had better be growing like crazy. Axon has been doing well - as these figures show.

I thought they'd get a sweeter deal than a 20 P/E in a slowing economy, but I guess this is what it is. I'm not sure if this is positive - in the near term it surely isn't - but inorganic expansion is definitely a good thing.

Disclosure: No current positions