The third- and our flagship - is now at around 16% real money return over three months. We tried some stunts - leveraging it, adding/deleting capital etc. - just to see how it performs. But now we're back with a non leveraged system - and 16% is the auditable profit.
Interesting some other systems come into play once in a while - not every day, or every week - but just once in a while. Kinda like Kaushik's Gold/Nifty pair trade (29% in three weeks there).
One such thing I'm thinking of is a Nifty option straddle or strangle. The Nifty was at 4300 on June expiry, and at about the same level in the July expiry. In August it closed at 4210.
This is a fairly tight range, and I looked back a little bit to see how such a scenario has panned out. Nifty has had futures only since 2000, but real trading probably started in 2002. SO let's check a 1 month (expiry to expiry) move and a 2 month move since 2002:
- Every time both one month and two month moves have been less than 4%, there has been a 10% move (expiry to expiry) in the subsequent two months (either one month or two month).
- Except once, in Sep/Oct 2002 where such a situation lasted two months (i.e. one and two month moves were less than 4%) and the third month there was a 10% move. Even then I'm not sure I should bother because the nifty future turnover on expiry day was 100 cr. We do that
- There may be large fluctuations within the month but I'm not counting those.
- Our current one and two month moves - as of end August - are 2% each.
I can't really back test - because I have only a few data points and options only got really liquid only after 2005 or so. But it seems like there is a profitable opportunity if one were to buy a straddle for around 5% when such situations occurred.
Current straddle rates are around 8% (300 points on a Nifty of 4200). Not entirely profitable, to be honest - but if the Nifty stays in this range till mid-month, things might be better. Need to do a comprehensive back test, but it's fodder to start.
Now other situations exist. There could be the situation that an intermediate move will take you into a profit zone. Also need to test strangles. Finally of course, implied volatility plays a part - so perhaps the idea is to buy low IV strangles, as compared to the rest of the option chain.
This is more of a low frequency, high probability (LFHP) trade. It won't set up every day or every month, but when it does set up it has a high chance of success. Now if we were to get 50 such LFHPs, maybe we can get a more stable return. (Of course, with Murphy's law, all will set up at the same time, and you will not be able to allocate capital). Still, if the returns are reasonable on a per-setup basis, this might be a way to get alpha in the longer term.
Disclosure: Long a Nifty strangle [Couldn't resist]
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>Deepak,
The returns you are talking, is impressive as I take there were o losses incurred otherwise you would have stated the same too.
If the progress leaps like this then I envisage in very near future readers like me wont be getting to see your views/analysis/advice on the blog. My best wishes always for your success.
If you happen to (am sure of) start your own money managing fund then petty retail investors like me wont be able to stake in for your services, and due consideration of the intensified commitments on your self to future business; we are definitely going to miss you (your valuable knowledge) over the blog.
In any case at least I am very mcuh obliged for your remarkable efforts at this blog. Good Luck.
09.02.08 at 7:53 PM
>Siddharth – it was a 14% drawdown, when we were testing leverage. We were up 26%, and it came down to 12% befoer resuming upwards.
But the downside was around 1.5x levered, so with a steady portfolio it would have been lesser.
I am unlikely to stop writing on the blog even if I do get into the money management business; let’s see how it goes. Thanks for the kind words!
09.03.08 at 5:20 AM
>can these methods for on forex, too ? and how much actual "risk" is involved ?
can i develop or tweak this method ?
04.06.10 at 7:30 PM
>Yes of course you can tweak it.
Long straddles have limited risk – to the premium you pay. Short straddles have unlimited risk. both are useful in different scenarios.
04.06.10 at 8:09 PM