Iceland cracks, Mobius likes India, Ted Spread and more

8 comments Written on October 9th, 2008 by
Categories: Crisis2008
There seems to be news all the time nowadays.
  • Iceland now shuts down stock exchange for two days, and creates a new bank. This is a country in bad shape - its three biggest lenders had to be nationalized or went bankrupt, it's lost some 24% against the euro in the last few days and it's looking desperately for about $5 billion. (Why won't India give this money? I think it's a far better bet to give it in Krona today, and get it back in Krona a few years later...far better than holding some obscene quantities of dollars, at least)
  • ICICI Bank trades in the US at $16.85, which is equivalent (at Rs. 48 to a dollar) to a rupee price of 400. At 400 I will cut my shorts in my short only strategy.
  • The Ted spread is at 4+. This is the kind of thing you can't even begin to imagine. It's like Jurassic Park - you're ok dealing with this stuff in history books and even have comic characters like Barney the friendly dino (which, incidentally , my son can't get enough of) but if you ever see real dinosaurs walking around you're going to be screaming and running like a headless chicken. That's what the Ted Spread is right now, a chicken without a head. Hey, that even rhymes.
  • The short-selling ban ended today in the US. It was down what - 15% during the ban? Someone please tell the regulators, that kind of crap does NOTHING to stop prices going down, ok? If you had shorts they'd be buying and covering and supporting the market now. Now deal with fresh shorts having to be built today. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
  • Treasury may directly buy capital from banks. Yay. United States, Temporary Socialist Republic. Hey, it's not a bad thing.
  • Mark Mobius of Templeton will buy India?
    ``There are bargains on almost every single market around the world,'' Mark Mobius, who manages $30 billion as executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management Ltd., said in a Bloomberg television interview today. Mobius, 72, said he's looking to buy stocks in the markets that fell the most, including Russia, China, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and India.
    Watch for a stock market recovery in the emerging space. Russia is now up 17%, after a battering this week.
  • Tanta at Calculated Risk has had a coffee for the first time in a month. (No, the credit crisis is not so bad)
More drama to come. I think it's time to take a holiday. Too much news never helped anyone.
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About the Author: Deepak Shenoy
http://www.capitalmind.in
The man behind Capital Mind. Deepak is a co-founder at MarketVision, a financial knowledge company in Gurgaon. He also provides data research and consulting services in the financial markets space. Connect with him at deepakshenoy@gmail.com.

8 comments “Iceland cracks, Mobius likes India, Ted Spread and more”

>Hi Deepak,

Mudra is trading now at around 24. I want to know your opinion about the stock given the current market situations. Thanks in advance…

Keep your nice blog going. My best wishes.

-Adithya

>very true, i closed all of my Nifty position yesterday, I’m not sure which side its gonna be next in coming days; I am more biased toward downturn but can’t play it with my money.

>By the time I finish my dinner after last comment, S&P is 4.5% down ;)

>good one.

>This is Lehman CDS preview show.

Watch Friday Newyork Time 2 PM for the greatest ride down in the history of the Financial Markets.

That is the time the Casino bets of Lehman Bonds CDS will be settled.

>The real reason for the fall is here.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/10/09/the-looming-lehman-cds-unwind/

Mark Mobius is a fool. He was the one who made several people pauper during the last Tech Downturn. He is a super broker peddling his drugs.

>You said:

# ICICI Bank trades in the US at $16.85, which is equivalent (at Rs. 48 to a dollar) to a rupee price of 400. At 400 I will cut my shorts in my short only strategy.

Doesnt that make it 800? Why are you taking a 2:1 ratio (US:India)?

>I have been untrue to my statement that I’ll cut at 400. Small lessons to be learnt there.

A nony mouse: 1 ADS = 2 shares of ICICI…


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