Archive for January, 2009

Millionaire Petitions

1 Comment » Written on January 21st, 2009 by
Categories: Humour
I support this petition for millionaires who are insulted by the movie "Slumdog Millionaire", which equates them to dogs that live in slums. Or slums that live in dogs. Something like that.

I'm qualified to do so as I own Rs. 2 and 30 paise, which is currently equal to a million zimbabwean dollars.

That petition is in the same vein as that of Tapesh Vishwakarma, who has decided, unilaterally, that the film calls Indians dogs, and equates them with slum dwellers. Wait. No, it equates two of the three, and Tapesh-ji is miffed at the combination, though others may be ok, conditions apply.

I would also like to petition against Dharmendra who, in his movies, has called people "kutte!", which is dog in Hindi. And against certain members of a KREC group of 1996, of which I was a part, which also included a certain member whose nickname was "Patti", and whom we called that incessantly during our bus journey to Kasargod, in Kerala. Patti means dog in Malayalam, for those of you who don't know, and we didn't.

Incidentally "Patti" is also a millionaire, at least in Zimbabwean dollars. So I think we should sue the slums.

We need a bailout just so we can talk.

Obama is President, Markets Drop 4-5%

4 comments Written on January 21st, 2009 by
Categories: Uncategorized
Obama's speech yesterday was inspiring, admitting the challenges ahead and asking for a greater responsibility of America. It's time the world owns up too. We all rode the American dream. From cheap American money came expensive Indian houses too, so much that even now, people cannot fathom prices falling below 2006 levels. America seems to have admitted it - they're in some deep doo-doo. From the president in his speech, to the markets, which later dropped 4% (NYSE DOW) and 5% (S&P and NASDAQ).

Meanwhile, the UK markets are in the toilet too, after RBS announced a $41 billion loss. That is perhaps greater than the net profits of the entire Nifty 50 combined. The UK continues to bail out people, introducing levels of moral hazard I can only talk about in a separate post.

I was in Goa the last four days. I've visited Goa nearly every year in the last five, and have never seen the lack of activity like I did this time. Staffers at the hotel were surprised (but incredible service, by the way; Hotel Lalit Intercontinental is going to be my haunt next time as well) by the dropping volumes. Taxi drivers mentioned their first loss in 5 years. It's a depressed economy out there waiting to come out...and it gets worse each passing day, or seems like it.

One thing though: When a market can push an Axis bank down 16% after announcing fantastic results (50% EPS growth), it makes you sit back and wonder. It's a bad bad market out there, and it's likely reflecting people's thoughts on the economy itself. This isn't the bottom. The bottom is when you're not even reading this page. T

Obama will bring with him interesting times. Depressing perhaps, but interesting all the same. The economy, Iraq, Russia, Afghanistan, America's banks, Madoff's ripoff, mortgage foreclosures, liquidity issues, crisis, crisis, crisis. There will be a response, and in my current pessimistic state, totally useless, but it will drive markets crazy for a while. May be a good time to make some money.

In India we have an election coming up, a potential hostility-increase with a neighbour, another series of frauds, a budget and various unrelated dramas. Do not believe what you hear; only what you see. It's time to mistrust everyone, including ULIP offerings by insurance companies. I'm sticking with gilts, and some trading money. Safety and total risk - this is no time to be in the middle!

SoS: Add Lots, and A Holiday In Store

2 comments Written on January 15th, 2009 by
Categories: ShortOnly
SO I'm off for a four day holiday. Meanwhile, why not stay short? So additions to the SoS are HDFC, Unitech, Cairn and good ole ICICI Bank. The market looks really lousy, and will add more when I come back. (Current Status)

Have a good one!

NSE Unveils Option Chains on NSEIndia.com

1 Comment » Written on January 15th, 2009 by
Categories: Options
An upgrade to the NSE Web Site shows option chains. If you click on "Option Chains" on the main page, and enter an underlying, like NIFTY, you can see a straddle chain list, with expiry date links at the top:

(Click for a larger image)

Good stuff. We had introduced it at the end-of-day level in the now-defunct Moneyoga site, but it's always good to have it on the NSE site.

(Note: the bid/asks and LTPs are stale. At least 10 minutes in my experience)

WTF: Returns from the lows, or from the highs?

3 comments Written on January 14th, 2009 by
Categories: WTF
Rediff's article: Stay calm, don't panic by Anil Rego try to mollify investors who got in at the peak of a bull run that it's all ok, the Sensex recovered really fast after that.

As one can see, someone who invested in peaks, saw troughs, but if s/he had waited patiently would have gained significantly from the stipulated levels at which s/he had bought. Another key point to note is that the deeper the cut, longer it took to heal.
Unfortunately, this makes little sense for those that got in at the peak of the bull run.

Look at the results one or three years later. In two instances (1992 and 2000), even after three years, the returns were negative from the peak. In 1996, the returns after three years was even - only in 1990 did it grow substantially. (But remember, three years after 90 was the end-game of a very dramatic bull run too, and the index subsequently went even lower)

Looking at the current market - even today we are up 30% from the lows of 2250 on the Nifty, but does it count for much? Will it go 30% from HERE in three years? The data, as shown in the article, seems quite unattractive; on an average if the index only recovers 50-60% from the lows in three years, the return from today is an abysmal 7-8% a year compounded.

Data can be twisted to look really good; the article will make those that invested at the bottom happy - all the four of them. But there's little solace for those who got in at the top, most of whom are hoping to get out "at cost price". The opportunity cost today is a 8% per year one could get post tax in other, just as risky instruments like the Tata Motors bond issue.

This is just a WTF.

LIC’s Jeevan Aastha: Look before you leap

10 comments Written on January 14th, 2009 by
Categories: Insurance
An eye opener on LIC's Jeevan Aastha by Sandeep Shanbhag in DNA:
It is in school that we are taught the basic difference between simple and compound interest. We are taught the fundamental principle that compound interest and not simple interest is the effective rate of return on any investment.

However, it increasingly seems to me that this is a lesson that is either not learnt well or is forgotten way too early. How else does one explain people falling over each other to invest in what essentially is a fixed deposit that, depending upon the age of the investor, offers at best 7.32% per annum (p.a.) and at worst a 4.32% p.a. return?

Yes, I am talking of LIC's Jeevan Aastha, a policy that seems to have taken the investor community by storm. The simple FD like structure gets complicated on account of the investment being combined with insurance and the usage of differing terminologies such as Basic Sum Assured, Maturity Sum Assured, Guaranteed Additions, Loyalty Additions, Death Benefit, Maturity Benefit and so on.

...

Let's first take a case where the investor remains healthy, alive and kicking throughout the term of the plan (5 or 10 years as the case may be). The interest or return on investment as mentioned by LIC is Rs 100 per thousand of Maturity Sum Assured (MSA) per year for a policy of 10 years and Rs 90 per thousand MSA per year for a policy of 5 years term where the MSA is one-sixth of the Basic Sum Assured (BSA). Please note the significance of the words -- Rs 100 per thousand per year. The usage (Rs 100 per thousand) translates into Rs 10 per hundred or 10% per year.

Many unethical, unscrupulous agents are taking this rate of 10% per year and selling Jeevan Aastha as a product that offers 10% p.a tax-free return. And in the current mood of risk aversion, the public is lapping it up. However, note that the 10% is flat per year on a simple basis, meaning there is no interest on interest element (which by the way is the definition of compound interest). Instead the investor gets a flat 10% per year.

In terms of an example, a 30-year-old investor who invests Rs 24,810 will receive Rs 50,000 upon maturity at the end of 10 years, translating into a return of 7.26%. The accompanying table lists the age-wise maximum and minimum potential return on this plan.

Read it all, there's more. Jeevan Aastha is a heavily advertised "guaranteed" plan by LIC, a single-premium endowment plan with a term of 5 or 10 years. The problem is the huge misrepresentation by agents and even by LIC itself where it hides the real picture by using weasel words.

So:

  • They say 10% guaranteed but it's not compounded. A 48K investment as shown in their own illustration, gives you 100K after 10 years. That's about 7.5% compounded, much lesser than the 10% claim.
  • You might think - hey, I can take it for one year and get out! The surrender value after a year is 90% of the policy - meaning you have an "exit load" of 10%, regardless of when you exit. That negates any early exit gains.
  • The Sum Assured Scam: In the first year, your S.A. is 6x your premium. The Second year onwards it's only the guaranteed amount (typically 1.5x to 2x your premium). That's totally useless.
  • The Sum Assured bump-up in year 1 may be for tax benefits, which only apply if you pay less than 20% of the S.A. as premium.
  • LIC has the advantage that you get a tax saving in year 1 and even the interest payments are tax free (though not compounded). On the other hand, bank fixed deposits give you no tax saving on the investment (other than the 5 year FDs), and none on the interest either.
  • Alternative options: If you want the tax saving: PPF, where returns are tax free. If you already have 80C covered by either other insurance, a housing loan, EPF or other such investments, you needn't use a tax saving plan; then, you can get 8.29% from NABARD bonds (mentioned by Shanbhag) post tax.
  • If FMPs weren't all this shady you could invest in them for a more tax efficient return (capital gain at 20%, indexed, which is very little real tax). But research may reveal some good FMPs still exist. Other capital secured plans from mutual funds are also attractive.
  • Note that the 10% exit load kills any real value in the plan. If in the middle of the term you exit, you get next to nothing on the return end.
There might be more lurking out there. I do not recommend ANY life insurance policy for investment and would opt only for a pure insurance (term) plan. They all seem to be leeches, hiding the real return under weasel terms and hyping what should not be. At this point, the rule of thumb is: avoid anything that sounds good.

Fuel Price Cuts Coming Soon?

1 Comment » Written on January 13th, 2009 by
Categories: Inflation
Mint: Govt may slash fuel rates on Thu
The government may cut petrol, diesel and domestic LPG prices on Thursday, besides freeing fuel pricing from administrative control, a petroleum ministry official said today.

The Cabinet, scheduled to meet on Thursday, may reduce petrol price by Rs5 a litre, diesel by Rs3 per litre and domestic LPG by Rs25 per cylinder, giving relief to the common man and further easing inflationary pressures, he said.

State-run oil companies are currently making Rs9.70 a litre profit on sale of petrol, Rs3.70 a litre on diesel, but are loosing Rs 31.70 per LPG cylinder and Rs 11.69 on every litre of kerosene.

“There is also a proposal for freeing the retail fuel prices from administrative control after a mechanism to compensate for the losses on LPG and kerosene is devised,” he said.

The government will mop up additional revenues by increasing excise duty on petrol and diesel by a minimum of Rs1 per litre.

I think deflation will come even earlier than March.

Tata Motors offers 11% on fixed deposits

5 comments Written on January 13th, 2009 by
Categories: TataMotors
Update: This is not 13.3%. This is more like 11% (or 11.5% if you are a shareholder). The rate mentioned is not annualised; the only rates that matter are compounded rates. Thanks to the anonymous commenter who corrected me.

Tata Motors is offering upto 13.33% 11.5% interest, per year, on fixed deposits with the company. (Read the brochure)

All you need to do to be a shareholder is to buy one share - currently less than Rs. 200 - and get 0.5% more.

The major issue of course: Is Tata Motors going to be solvent? Going by how this stupid government is thinking of bailout a Satyam, I think it's a given that even Tata Motors is going to be bailed out. In Satyam they aren't even letting the shareholders go bust - usually bailouts protect debt holders, but here they're protecting those that took the risk!

Given this mentality it's likely Tata Motors won't be allowed to go bust, but if things get ugly money could be stuck for a while. The financials don't look very good, but that's true of everything. Comes down to trust. So if you like Ratan Tata - and most importantly, if he likes you - this might just be the "alpha" you're looking for.