Peter Schiff: Laughed at, but whoa…

>That was a remarkable video, although I’m guessing that it looks far more impressive in hindsight. There is no dearth of people who are absolutely convinced that the markets will tank at any given time, and there is a neat hero-manufacturing industry based on these predictions (from the other end of the tail, Is Arjun Murti around?). All said and done though, the kind of statements Schiff makes are almost prophetic!

I’m very interested in your comment on Taleb: is there some place I can read up on him objectively, something that doesn’t drool over his cynicism and his Fannie Mae footnote in TBS? What have his fundaes earned him? How is his hedge fund doing? He certainly has very valid points, but sometimes the adulation he gets is irritating.

>Peter was correct about real estate crash and subsequent market crash. But his call on dumping US assets for foreign assets, Commodities was wrong. His investors lost lot of money due to his bad call about Non US assets. Non US assets fell more sharply than US assets.

Peter never understood that it was US money in the first place which propped up NON US assets via carry trade. When risk aversion developed the US money went back to US via Japanese Yen. US Capital still rules the world.

Peter underestimated and still underestimates the power of deflation. Printing money by US will not stop deleveraging and fall in the asset prices in the US.

The Peter inflationary effect is more applicable to Emerging Markets like India which if follows the example of US and prints money will land up in inflationary mess as Foreign Capital (Chiefly US and Euro/Japan) will fly away from India. Already Latin American countries which have lowered Interest rates have seen flight of Capital.