Archive for April, 2009

ULIPs Versus TermPlan+Investment: The Winner is Clear

17 comments Written on April 18th, 2009 by
Categories: Insurance, ULIP
I'm going back to a theme I have not posted on for a while now: ULIPs. Unit Linked Insurance Plans, I have always maintained, are hideous. Not only do they restrict you from a proper investment plan, they hide enough details to make you believe they are better than other investment avenues - well, for the most part, they are not.

Let's take the example of ICICI Prudential's "LifeStage RP" ULIP. Their brochure mentions this:

So I said, heck, maybe they're the smart ones. Let's compare this, I thought, to a regular term plan plus investment. You could invest in anything - from ELSS schemes, to FMPs with a reasonable yield etc.

So I assumed on one hand I would pay Rs. 50,000 premium to Mr. ICICI for 20 years, under the "100%" protector fund, assuming 10% returns annualized. On the other hand, I would buy a term policy now, and pay annual premiums to it from the Rs. 50,000. Whatever was remaining, I would invest in something that returns 10%.

The Lifestage RP plan shown provides a 500,000 cover (okay, it's useless, but still) above the fund value, so the correct comparison is to pay premium for a pure-term policy of Rs. 500,000 for 20 years. I took the LIC Anmol Jeevan rates, for my age (34), with an annual payment (it comes to Rs. 2100 a year, plus service tax; I've assumed Rs. 2400).

Here's what comes out. Click the image for a larger view:

(Note: I got the fund value details etc. from the ICICI Premium Calculator, for my age.

Salient points:

  • Term Plan+Investment yields 29.99 lakhs after 20 years, versus 25.62 lakhs for the ICICI plan.
  • The insurance cover is exactly the same in both cases. But the death benefit (fund value plus insurance) is significantly greater for TermPlan+Investment.
  • That means ICICI's ULIP is snatching away 4.37 LAKHS off your returns. That's a massive loss in comparison with your investment and return - nearly 20%!
  • You might say A ulip provides tax benefits. But you probably already max those out, given the limit is Rs. 100,000 a year, and you need to fit in children's schooling costs, mortgage principal repayment and forced savings through EPF in the same limit. The ULIP probably does nothing (oh, and you can get a similar kind of benefit if your "investment" is in ELSS funds, or tax-deferred bonds)
  • Effectively you pay over 2.5 lakhs just as charges over the term. Of this, the mortality charges (included in "Other charges") add up to only 41,000. The remaining is lining advisors' and ICICI's pockets.
  • They tell you they have added Rs. 24,000 in four installments - but even that does NOTHING to your return. Still short by 4.37 lakhs!
Ranting: ULIPs are a sin. A blot on the face of mankind. And womankind. Oh, and childkind in the worst way. I can't provide any other suggestion to anyone who owns a ULIP other than - find the right time and get the hell out.

That was a rant only. But I hope this post will show you how you can evaluate different avenues for investment, and specifically see how your advisor is likely to be hoodwinking you. Even if he is a relative. In fact, especially if he is a relative.

I've received a lot of mail asking me to help with ULIPs from people who have invested and are feeling conned. I can't respond to each one for lack of time - but please do this kind of research before you get in. And if you're already in, you have to "book" your losses and only consider whether getting out now is better than staying in a couple more years (or negotiating a premium holiday etc.).

If you ask me, I would never invest in a ULIP, ever. I don't want to ban these products - I'm all for freedom here - but I ask you this, if a bank said they would give you 2% return on your Fixed Deposits, will you invest? Especially when you can get 3.5% in a savings account? The 2% offer isn't illegal, it just plays on how stupid you are at a given time. ULIPs prey on the same thing, under the guise of an otherwise less-than-toxic word: Insurance.

The Visible Hand

No Comments » Written on April 18th, 2009 by
Categories: Stocks
Think the government doesn't play in the stock market? Or that only the Indian government seems to? Read this paper (Hat tip: Zero Hedge) The Visible Hand
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Sos: Exit all positions, buy Nifty put

2 comments Written on April 15th, 2009 by
Categories: ShortOnly
The stop loss of 3400 has been breached on the Short Only Strategy. Since I only use end-of-day prices, and this was the first day the EOD price crossed 3400, it had to be today when the exit was reached.

The return has dwindled to about 2.67% (annualized) now, which is pathetic. Gotta take care and get into the next downswing. Luckily there wasn't too much of a position on this time, otherwise the losses would have been intense. Still, I see a huge downmove, so I'm content buying a few puts - 1000 to start with - looking for a 10% move down. That may not happen this month, so capital must be allocated to stretch across months.

My apologies for not keeping this updated - I get small bursts of time to microblog (Twitter) so have ignored the sheet. It's updated now.

Review: MoneyVidya.com

5 comments Written on April 12th, 2009 by
Categories: Uncategorized
Just took a deeper look at MoneyVidya, a community site for Indian stock market investors. Given I've just come off Moneyoga, the space still retains my interest, and then I know one of the founders (Gautam) so if you're looking for an unbiased view, this is not it.

Moneyvidya is a stock picking system - you choose a stock, you put a buy or sell rating for it, and specify the time period - from Intraday to 2 years. You can also choose to say why, choose a target exit price, set up a limit (don't buy above "x") and set up a stop-loss point.

Picks are automatically closed by the system once they pass the duration specified or hit targets/stop losses. In this, they differ from Motley Fool's CAPS which asks you instead. (also, CAPS focusses on relative returns to S&P, and is US only)

People are rated by their pick performance, on a scale of 1-5 stars, and there's some more stats like average return, success rate etc. I like this idea - my strong belief is that the best stock pickers could come from anywhere, not just from the few desks of mutual funds or investment banks. To be able to track the very best, you need a third party rating system that is purely performance driven - to unearth the smart traders and to "unmask" any investment gurus who ask you to pay for their advice. (You should be able to say "Whats your ranking on [site]?") And of course, if you want to build a business that provides stock picking advice, it's good to build credibility on such sites.

About 2200 members seem to have registered, though not all may be active. Once this number grows and the site collects data, I'm sure there will be more analytics to compare users (intraday versus long term, return versus risk etc.).

The charting is limited to price/volume, with no indicators. There aren't any fundamentals shown, no P/E or EPS or profit figures. I couldn't get their Compare Stocks bit, or their watchlists to work at all. You can look at news and posts for any stock, aggregated from various sources.

The stock focusses on picks, not portfolios. So if you have a lakh to invest, you can't quite use the site to figure out how much to put in which stock; so you won't find the great portfolio managers here, only the best stock pickers. A reasonable part of trading and investing is money management and position sizing; some would say you could have a 50/50 win-loss ratio and still make great returns if you lose much lesser per losing pick than the amount you profit on a winning pick. Still, that might be in MoneyVidya's future plans, I won't write it off.

The site's early stage, so there's not much discussion on the mainstream stocks - most of it seems to be in the mid or small-caps. But there are reasonably active polls, news links and Q&A - interesting from the perspective of reading up views on a stock. Their blog is educative on both technicals and broad market terminologies; well worth the time reading, if you ask me.

A pain point: To look at members or stocks you need to log in. For one, this destroys a considerable amount of Google juice - behind a subscription wall, none of the stuff people have written, or your stock data, gets indexed. Plus, you shouldn't need to subscribe unless you want to participate. Another suggestion is to have a facebook plugin or such, that allows people to pick stocks in a different and more famous community platform. There are sites like this for the US market, not for India.

This review's already gotten longer than I thought it would, so let me stop here and wish the MoneyVidya team a ton of luck. And do let me know what you guys think.

Analysts Getting It Wrong, And No Recovery?

6 comments Written on April 11th, 2009 by
Categories: Recession, Recovery
John Mauldin's latest, Is this Recovery that we see? brings up some interesting points about where we are and if this really is a recovery. A particularly hilarious point in there was how analyst estimates were so way off it's amazing they even get paid. (Wait, they probably got bonuses. The current fad is to reward the incompentant).

The last number below is the actual figure. The rest were "estimates".

At this point I'd also like to mention that a truckload of people had said the Sensex EPS estimate for year ending March 2009 was "between 955 and 1050". (Read: The Sensational Sensex EPS Story, Jul 6 2006)

Right now, just before any Sensex company has announced results, the BSE India page shows the Sensex at 10,804 and P/E as 15.13. That makes the current Sensex trailing EPS (Jan 08 to Dec 08) equal to 714.

Unless some spectacular results come and take the EPS up 35% in the last quarter, we are likely to see our own analysts get their face full of mud, and therefore, collect hefty bonuses.

That apart, the US recovery looks like a sham. With 80K foreclosures a month, and a large number of foreclosures not even in the market, housing prices will take a long time to recover. Plus, Mauldin notes further inventory bump-ups because of the huge number of Option ARM resets in 2010. If you look at this crisis as a one-way bet on housing prices - that means it will only end when the folks who took the bets go down, or prices recover substantially. The latter will take years, probably a decade; and the US doesn't want the former to happen.

Lastly, read Zero Hedge's article on how this "rally" is likely an harbinger of tough times; the big liquidity providers seem to be out of the market, and are "deleveraging" - and the rally itself seems to be based on low volume overnight trades rather than market moves itself. Must keep a close eye on how this pans out.

Dubai: The Dark Side by Johann Hari

No Comments » Written on April 10th, 2009 by
Categories: Uncategorized
I learnt from Kaushik about Johann Hari's article on Dubai:
The wide, smiling face of Sheikh Mohammed – the absolute ruler of Dubai – beams down on his creation. His image is displayed on every other building, sandwiched between the more familiar corporate rictuses of Ronald McDonald and Colonel Sanders. This man has sold Dubai to the world as the city of One Thousand and One Arabian Lights, a Shangri-La in the Middle East insulated from the dust-storms blasting across the region. He dominates the Manhattan-manqué skyline, beaming out from row after row of glass pyramids and hotels smelted into the shape of piles of golden coins. And there he stands on the tallest building in the world – a skinny spike, jabbing farther into the sky than any other human construction in history.

But something has flickered in Sheikh Mohammed's smile. The ubiquitous cranes have paused on the skyline, as if stuck in time. There are countless buildings half-finished, seemingly abandoned. In the swankiest new constructions – like the vast Atlantis hotel, a giant pink castle built in 1,000 days for $1.5bn on its own artificial island – where rainwater is leaking from the ceilings and the tiles are falling off the roof. This Neverland was built on the Never-Never – and now the cracks are beginning to show. Suddenly it looks less like Manhattan in the sun than Iceland in the desert.

Once the manic burst of building has stopped and the whirlwind has slowed, the secrets of Dubai are slowly seeping out. This is a city built from nothing in just a few wild decades on credit and ecocide, suppression and slavery. Dubai is a living metal metaphor for the neo-liberal globalised world that may be crashing – at last – into history.

Fascinating. And I hate our spinelessness. Imagine how our people are doing in the worst of them all, Saudi Arabia.

Real Estate: Debt Load Immense

No Comments » Written on April 10th, 2009 by
Categories: DLF, RealEstate
From LiveMint: Real Estate cos headed for a debt trap?
People familiar with the developments say DLF’s debt is around Rs15,000 crore. On an average, the company delivers 10-11 million sq. ft per year. If we take the average cost of interest at 13%, DLF’s interest burden for FY10 will be Rs1,950 crore. That means the company will have to pay Rs163 crore every month and that’s just the interest component. Even if DLF is able to sell 10 million sq. feet at an average price of Rs3,000 a sq. foot, it will generate sales of Rs3,000 crore. However, typically just 20% of booking amount is paid upfront by customers. Going by that logic, DLF can expect an inflow of Rs600 crore. Compare that to the Rs1,950 crore of interest burden that DLF will have to pay in FY10.

Unitech’s story, sources say, is no different. With a debt burden of Rs8,000 crore, it will have to bear an interest burden of Rs1,040 crore. Assuming that one apartment of Unitech sells for Rs40 lakh, the company will have to pre-sell 10,400 apartments to generate Rs1040 crore.

There are others too in the same boat. HDIL’s debt figure is Rs4,000 crore. The company is launching projects aggressively. It had two launches in March and five others are planned later this year. Not surprising, since at 13% interest cost, the firm will have to bear Rs520 crore just as interest burden. The question several analysts are asking is will the pre-sale amount suffice for both servicing the interest cost and construction costs as well? Or is a delay in these new projects inevitable?

Sobha Developers have just 1,500 apartments ready for sale. The company has debt of Rs1,850 crore and the interest that it will have to pay is Rs241 crore. Sobha Developers has two launches planned later this year. While Sobha’s land bank may be 3,000 acres, just 23 acres is under construction. Company sources have confirmed that it will take additional debt to service interest cost burden in FY10. And industry players fear, several others will follow suit.

With a recovery in prices - DLF is up over 70% in a couple months, and Unitech close to 30% - it seemed like the worst was over. This debt seems to show these companies have the worst ahead of them. DLF in particular seems to be getting on the wrong side of news.

DE Shaw and Symphony want to get out of DLF Assets Limited, the KP Singh owned company which buys all of DLF's properties (and thus is responsible for DLF's revenue). They've invested $1.05 billion together in DAL, and buying them out will not be easy.

DAL owes DLF 5,500 crore. Don't you love it when you can sell your properties to yourself, and show it as revenue? But I digress. DAL doesn't have the moolah, so they're trying all sorts of things. They wanted to merge DLF and DAL - that way, no receivables. But that's not going to be easy as both Symphony and DE Shaw want out, and all the murkiness that was shoved by DLF under DAL's carpet will now become visible - not desirable.

DLF/DAL have now raised 1,100 cr. from HDFC Bank. DLF is also looking to sell its hotel plots, its wind power plants. Customers seem to want refunds on unfinished projects. Commercial rentals are in some trouble, with some mall retailers shutting shop demanding lower rentals.

DLF's stock, meanwhile, is going through some serious short covering - it was nearly at the Market Wide Position Limit last month, and the sharp rise must have killed a lot of levered shorts; the covering is killing them some more. The results will not be good - we all know that anyway - but it might not be as bad as one thinks either, because this stuff can take months to play out. So the stock continues on its uptrend, but one needs to be careful and keep a reasonably close stop loss.

Inflation at 0.26%, IIP at -1.2%, PMI still underwater

2 comments Written on April 9th, 2009 by
Categories: Inflation, News
WPI Inflation has come down to 0.26%, an all time low. The 10 year bond yield suddenly dropped from 6.95% yesterday to 6.69% today, something quite strange as the RBI sold 12,000 cr. worth bonds today. Usually, on a bond-sale day, prices of bonds drop, making yields go up - yet, we saw a near 3% RISE in prices today. Does this mean inflation staying low indicates a lowering of interest rates?

If not, then there is a crisis waiting to happen, and banks are loading up on g-secs. Which one of the two - a good question to ask, and let's hope for the former.

Indian IIP data, released today, shows a sustaining decline. IIP has dropped 1.2% from Feb 08, the third consecutive declining month. In fact, it's now declined in four of the last five months. And if it doesn't get much better in March, we'll see a steeper drop.

There is some more bad news with the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data; The ABN AMRO Indian Manufacturing PMI stayed under 50 (Below 50 signifies contraction of orders, and above is expansion) meaning the IIP data is likely to look bad for March as well.

(Source: Markit Economics)

The reading of 49.5 is better than the Feb reading of 47 - but under 50, output will continue to flag. Export orders seem to have slowed down considerably at 43.5; but new orders and employment continue to be above 49. (Broad data across economies here)

U.S. Unemployment claims have gone to the highest levels ever (absolute terms) at 5.84 million. This week, another 654K people had "initial" claims - meaning at least 6.54 lakh people lost their jobs last week!

Markets worldwide are going up, and this is an interesting rally. It's pretty difficult to make the case for a V shaped recession, so it's likely to be a false one - yet, there's no calling the top. After 3400 on the nifty, there is no reason why we shouldn't go further up. If it doesn't hold, there's likely to be another long grinding breakdown.