Archive for June, 2009

DLF says house prices might be going up

5 comments Written on June 8th, 2009 by
Categories: DLF
Mint: DLF sees property prices going up
DLF Ltd, India’s largest listed real estate firm, sees signs of recovery in the country’s beaten down residential property sector and expects prices to start firming up, a senior official said on Monday.

Still, Rajeev Talwar, group executive director at the developer, said projects needed to be priced aggressively in order to sell.

Talwar told Reuters in an interview a stable government and a view that the economy may be improving would help demand for real estate, after a property slump that analysts said has seen prices crashing by up to half.

“I think we’ve done a fair amount on price correction, realistic pricing or aggressive pricing as it may be called,” Talwar said.

“I think all Indians have imposed their faith to very immediate economic revival, rather than long term,” Talwar said.

This is something I've started to hear from other sources - that prices are holding. But there are still very few transactions. Construction, though, seems to be back - in Gurgaon, I see hitherto abandoned projects getting a new lease of life. This is good - getting houses complete is important, because when some of them eventually go bust, there will be something left for the vultures to buy. Let's face it, there is oversupply in the premium segment, so some will go bust.

There doesn't seem to be an index or any real data on the residential segment so I can't say if prices really are holding. I see that brokers are trying their level best to keep listed prices steady. Real estate is a very slow and opaque segment so it could take months or years to really correct.

Interestingly, DLF is not quite so bullish on commercial properties. Their Andheri project in Mumbai is on the block, and it opted out of it's Kolkata SEZ project among others.

In other news, DLF dropped 10% today, to end at 365. With a past P/E of 27, it's not exactly cheap, but hey, residential prices are picking up!

RIL’s Subsidiary Is Bankrupt

1 Comment » Written on June 3rd, 2009 by
Categories: Reliance
BS: RIL's German subsidiary files for insolvency
RIL sources said Trevira saw losses amounting to millions of dollars in 2008, especially after the slump in global demand

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), the largest polyester fibre and yarn maker in the world, today said its sick German subsidiary Trevira GmbH has filed for insolvency proceedings with a restructuring plan due to its deep financial crisis.

Trevira has filed an application with the Augsburg Court in the State of Bavaria, Germany for insolvency, RIL informed the stock exchanges today.

RIL had elevated Elke Bauerle, chief restructuring officer for Trevira, as its managing director on May 25. She had joined Trevira from Schultze & Braun, a leading law-firm specialised in restructuring, replacing Hemant Sharma, who was heading the company since RIL’s acquisition in September 2004.

The ¤323-million (approximately Rs 2,170 crore) turnover Trevira, a leading producer of high-end specialised polyester yarn and fibre and a well-known brand in Europe, suffered heavy losses last year due to the slowdown in Europe, especially in the automobile sector.

Trevira supplies 27 per cent of its 120,000-tonne-per-annum production of fibres and filament yarn to the automotive sector and 30 per cent to home textile manufacturers. Rising raw material costs and high spends on energy also affected the performance of the company, said sources.

It looks like some of the overseas acquisitions, like Corus, Jaguar/Land Rover, etc. are not in the best of shape.

Inflation Graph: Keeping above zero, but how long?

1 Comment » Written on June 1st, 2009 by
Categories: Inflation
Inflation's holding (or "being held") just above the zero line, over the last few weeks. So much for my prediction of negative rates! Interesting to see how the graph looks.

The "bulge" was from rising commodity prices last year, and while they're not quite that much this year, the wholesale price index has gone up neatly (some of it is food prices, and crude has also shot to $60+, but I suspect we will follow prices up all that much).

The next few weeks should reveal more. Will we see a drop? Will the lack of demand show up in this or other indices? (Unfortunately none of them have real estate prices or rentals, otherwise we'd have seen deflation already)

SoS Update: Nothing yet, New positions will come soon

No Comments » Written on June 1st, 2009 by
Categories: ShortOnly
The Short Only Strategy has not had any transactions for a while, for good reason - the market has strength! But it looks juicy for the next round, and I'll restart positions on it soon. Technical weakness is required before entering - the tape is the boss. Waiting for stocks to show signs of fatigue, or for markets to stretch.

The return till now hasn't been anything to write about - around 1.5% in less than a year - but the markets are not about 5% above when I started, so in that sense it wasn't too bad. But I could've locked and made much more - perhaps I should put real money on the strategy so I'll be forced to update it more often! For now, no opportunity for that, given my job, so I'll stick with it being virtual; as usual, don't follow this strategy, this is not advice, etc.