Archive for July, 2009

Too Much Pain Buying "Under Construction" Properties (Or "Holes In The Ground")

26 comments Written on July 25th, 2009 by
Categories: RealEstate
I haven't bought a house or apartment, because houses are WAY overpriced ever since I could afford one. Also the rent-versus-buy argument is much skewed in the renter's favour. The average rental yield, net of costs, is about 2% of property value - speaking from my experience in Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore. And the current quality of housing isn't anywhere close to "good" for the price you pay.

But buying a house to live in is hardly limited to economics. People would buy to own - so they can modify the house without taking permission, install split a/cs where the like, or do up a room to make their kids happy. Or whatever. It's an emotional decision as well.

When I decide to buy - when I can finally afford the price and the serious modification I will need to do - I will not buy an apartment "under construction". You end up financing someone else's lifestyle. But there are other, more important reasons.

Typical deals are: you sign on a piece of paper looking at a hole in the ground. The builder promises to give you a "ready" house in say three years. The apartment size is shown to you and the "amenities" you will get, like a swimming pool, a tennis court, water to drink, air to breathe etc. You then get a bank loan for 20 years for some part of it, and the rest will fall in place.

Or so you think.

First, the bank loan is payable to the builder in installments; he gets a certain amount down, then a certain amount on completion of every "slab" and so on. If you build your own house, the bank loan is structured such that you get the money and you pay the builder (again, in installments). But in recent apartments, the builder gets the money directly from the bank, without your being in the loop. Effectively, you are giving the builder interest-free money, while you pay the interest. You have no control over when the money is released, and how much - it's all part of the loan deal. Without this control, the builder can easily gather money by building "slabs" - the bottom layer of a floor - after erecting tall pillars. The real money is spent in the finishing; building pillars and beams is very inexpensive. Yet, builders get money based on how many slabs they finish, and only a small percentage at the end.

You don't pay for what you are getting - in fact you pay a substantial amount more until that last payment, a tiny balloon of about 20% of the whole cost. Finishing alone, though, costs a big whopping percentage of the lot - the marble, the bathroom fittings, electricals, doors, paint finish and plumbing.

When you pay an equal installment per slab, you assume expenditure is in the same pattern, but it's not - the expense is a big balloon at the end, so the builder is effectively getting more until he has to do the big kahoona expense at the end. You're paying interest for this extra money, meanwhile.

And builders are fickle. They will leverage the extra they get, spending it on building more holes in the ground to sucker more willing buyers; when the time comes to finish a project they hope they'll have enough money left. In many cases - heck, in nearly all the cases I've seen, they don't finish projects satisfactorily. Promises are broken; some of the things they do when "handing over" property:

  • Walls have that horribly uneven texture under a coat of crappy paint
  • Doors and windows that are badly fitted. A Sobha Group apartment owners group complained once that they could kick the doors in - the frames were stuck with bad glue! And in a building here in Gurgaon, entire ceiling-to-floor windows fell inward during a small storm - in multiple apartments.
  • Bad plumbing - so much that nearly every apartment building has seepage into the walls within the first year.
  • Crappy electrical sockets and switches. Advertise one thing in the brochure and provide something else.
  • No proper lighting or finishing in the parking area, with leaks and chipped cement visible.
  • Unfinished pools, children's play areas etc.
A ticked-off Unitech buyer posted the following video:

The point is not that you can avoid these messes. You will always have them to some degree even if you build your own house. Yet, it's about incentives and leverage. You have paid everything upfront. Or most of it. The builder's made you wait, and now gives you possession with a crappy finish. Are you going to refuse? You're now willing to take anything - after all, you'll have paid three years of interest on an increasing amount and rent alongside. To you, it's literally a take-it-or-fuck-off deal. The only leverage you may have is that if you raised a fuss some other people wouldn't get suckered into buying the builder's newer holes in the ground - a ploy that worked for the buyer in the video above, as Unitech took some action after the video became famous.

Even that is not much leverage. New owners get scared that if the mass public got to know of the problems in a complex, property values will fall there. This doesn't help those that live there - a market price concern is hardly useful when you have to deal with a bad construction situation everyday. Still, people are inordinately concerned with the market price of properties they don't intend to sell for the next few years. It's like being bothered that the mobile phone I bought a year back is worth Rs. 5000 less today.

So threatening to kick up a fuss will make you an enemy of your neighbours. Not kicking a fuss means the builder will ignore you. Rock and hard place.

Builders also know they have inordinate leverage just before "handing over" possession. So the latest ploy is to randomly state an increase the size of the apartment, saying the "super built up" area is about 100 sq. ft. higher, so the owner needs to pay up the extra cost at say Rs. 3,000 per sq. ft. You can't complain - you don't even know how the "super" built-up area was calculated in the first place, because they don't give details. So asking for a clarification doesn't help - they can easily stall you for a long time, and you've already paid most of your money. No leverage, and the incentives are working against you.

The worst thing is the waiting time. Nearly every project I know is delayed - from a few months to nearly five years. My parents booked a property in 1980 - they got possession in 1991, with a cost escalation of 100%. That itself has put me off under-construction projects forever.

Prestige Shantiniketan in Bangalore was supposed to be ready two years ago, in 2007 - it's still nowhere close to being done. (oh, and part of one building collapsed during construction) Brigade Gateway, delays are beyond a year now. In Gurgaon, half finished projects dot the landscape - next door to where I live, a Parsvnath property lies with the front housing done, and the rear part with erected scaffolding for nearly six months of no progress. In Navi Mumbai, properties that looked like they were just about to be ready stayed in that state for the year I stayed there.

Lastly the real estate broker lobby is a pain - they get higher incentives from builders, sometimes even 10% - so they peddle under-construction properties ("holes in the ground") over ready-to-occupy premises.

Some more forums on the pathetic state of new booking based real estate:

(Note: I haven't verified authenticity; use at your own risk)

I'll bide my time. Either I buy land and build my house, or I'll get a good deal on a ready property which has been used a few years. I might buy "under-construction" at throwaway prices, purely for investment, on an as-is-where-is basis - then I can factor the cost of finishing the rest of the work myself and look at gains. But I'll pay well to get a ready house: if I'm buying for emotional reasons I would rather not have the worry and pain.

Buffett on CIT and the "Cheaper" Money

3 comments Written on July 25th, 2009 by
Categories: Uncategorized
Buffett on CIT's recent troubles:
(Via Calculated Risk)

CIT pays 13% plus gargantuan fees of 5% or so to get rescue funding, and they had to put up 5x worth collateral. Buffett makes the point that they can't compete in a world where the government guarantees debt of banks who can thus borrow at 1% or so, even cheaper than Buffett himself. The "raw material" of the business is money, and if some banks can get it cheaper than the rest, they will win.

Isn't this socialism? Some banks get to borrow cheap because the government backs their debt. No one else can compete because these buggers get the cheapest money. The biggest will survive, because now anything is too big to fail.

America is seeming more and more like India.

Courts Reflecting Society

2 comments Written on July 21st, 2009 by
Categories: Uncategorized
Fred Kaplan talks about "The Day Obscenity Became Art" - on the 50th anniversary of the day the courts declared that the Post Office may no longer confiscate or refuse to deliver "obscene" material. The day mail porn was possible. (A day irrelevant to the next generation who will probably think - WTF, why didn't they just wait for the Internet?)
For many decades, the courts upheld racial segregation; then, suddenly, they didn’t. For many decades, the courts let the Post Office decide which books people could read; then, suddenly, they didn’t. In both cases, and many others that could be cited, the laws hadn’t changed; society did. And the courts responded accordingly.
And can you notice it happening in India as well? "Gay" is now decriminalised - but society had accepted it already. The law remains the same, the interpretation changes.

(Yes, this has nothing to do with finance or investing. Or maybe it does. But yeah, I digressed, sorry.)

A Mutual Fund Trading Platform

6 comments Written on July 21st, 2009 by
Categories: MutualFunds
ET: Mutual Fund trading platform takes shape
The Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) has shortlisted four entities to develop a common electronic platform that will allow asset managers, investors and distributors to trade, switch over and compare schemes online through a single window.

The Amfi is likely to zero in on one entity within two weeks, following which the plan will be presented to market regulator Securities and Exchanges of India (Sebi) for final approval. Amfi intends to implement the platform by March 2010.

The need for a shared online platform for the local MF industry, a concept that has been borrowed from the developed markets, has strengthened, especially after Sebi recently scrapped the entry-load system and imposed restrictions on the industry, while doling out commissions to brokers.

SEBI bans entry loads, and suddenly they all get together to build technology that supports easy trading. This is great stuff; the ability to do this online will dramatically decrease cost of acquisition and transactions. MF agents are in trouble though - most will choose to become insurance advisors. After all, Insurance Advisors seem to keep 40-50% commissions on their client ULIP buys - IRDA, are you listening?

Bonds and Banking: Fork in the road?

1 Comment » Written on July 12th, 2009 by
Categories: Bonds
Last Friday's bond auction results (one, two) are:
  • New 10 year bond (6.9%) for 6,000 cr. : fully subscribed
  • 6 year 2015 at 6.55% yield, 5000 cr.: fully subscribed
  • 15 year 2024 bond, 7.45% yield, 2000 cr. : fully subscribed
  • 25 year 2034 bond, 7.98% yield, 2000 cr. : Undersubcribed - primary dealers had to fork up 312 cr.

    Here's where it gets murky. The auction result says "Competitive bids received: 3946 cr." but they only accepted 1674 cr. Why? If the bid was less than the cut off price why is it "Competitive"? If there's another reason why RBI would reject applications, I would love to know. (If there is, my post on the earlier auction devolvement will need rethinking) Anyone know?

This would mean, there are bond takers in the short term, and enough of them to handle the 15K cr. auctions every week. The long end is not getting too much bhaav. Or ijjat. Or "importance".

So then there must be people willing to sell, one might think? Let's look at the Open Market Purchase - again by a reverse auction - by the RBI on Thursday for a total of 7500 cr. Results:

  • 2019 Feb 10 year bond, cut off yield 6.91%: 926 cr. below cut-off yield.
  • 2032, 23 year bond, cut-off 7.7967%: 735 cr. below.
That's a total of 1662 cr. where the RBI wanted to buy 7500 cr.

One could argue that the long bond cut-off yield was too low. Still, there is no desire to dump longer term bonds either - otherwise this repurchase would have been flooded.

Next week's auction is 12,000 cr. - are we going to see a falling trend here?

But let's look at where the money is: Reverse repo. the latest reverse repo situation shows 1.47 lakh cr. parked in there, at 3.25%. There is ZERO demand for repo, meaning there is enough liquidity in the banking system. Repo is what RBI lends out at 4.75% - so no demand for repo means banks have enough funds. Reverse repo is what RBI takes in at 3.25%.

Looking at banking credit totals over the last month: Total bank credit has gone up by 31K cr. in a month; deposits are up 11k cr. Then how come reverse repo is up? (They should be using up money, 20K cr worth, to fuel the 20k cr. gap, one thinks)

Banks will soon have to make a decision - continue to keep huge amounts in reverse repo or start lending; if they lend aggressively, we will have to see if they lower lending standards. And it will fuel inflation and growth in the short term, with a likelihood of a blowup in the longer term. Why do I say that? Simply because in my opinion we haven't had the worst of the slump - there is still a huge build up in premium real estate waiting to blow up, and any aggressive lending will move money only there. Exports have collapsed all over the world, and the shipping index shows signs of weakness - exports is another big sector for aggro-lending. There has been overleveraging in retail, which has seen some destruction (Subhiksha, smaller players) but not anywhere near enough to say it's over.

What if lending growth does not happen? The 3.25% isn't likely to satisfy the banks - they can't be getting their money at less than that rate, and the current situation is not scalable.

It's a fork in the road for banks, and equity markets are dipping again. Will this lead to a reversal of fortunes and the "green shoots" theories, which to banks mean the dreaded words: "Restructuring" and "Defaults"? Will they go aggressive on lending or will they go frigid and jump into safety - government bonds? The next course of action will determine where bonds go. Oh, it will be visible the other way around.

ULIP Strikes Again

12 comments Written on July 11th, 2009 by
Categories: ULIP
Jago Investor, which has become an excellent site, has a post on misselling ULIPs.

The story: A family that had 10 L to invest, gave it to someone they knew in an investment bank, who considered all possible investments and chose the one that made him the maximum commission: the dreaded ULIP. It turned out the ULIP in question had 48% allocation in the 1st year, 24% in the second and 1% after that.

The advisor asked them to invest Rs. 3 lakh as premium. That's 1.44 lakhs into his pocket in year 1, and another 72K in his pocket in year 2. In two years, that's 2.2 lakhs gone, out of a given 6 lakhs.

Luckily this ULIP has a surrender value of 90% after year 1 and the family stopped further premiums, so they will get back 90% of whatever is left, after waiting for another two years. That still sucks - they will only see half their money while their investment advisor "friend" enjoys his share of the other half.

With entry loads banned, can you imagine any reason why ULIPs are useful? NEVER INVEST IN A ULIP, PERIOD. How can smart, intelligent people get suckered so easily? Buy term insurance and an equity or debt mutual fund, much much easier.

More Inflation (or the lack of it)

No Comments » Written on July 10th, 2009 by
Categories: Inflation
The latest inflation report has inflation at -1.55%. This is WPI inflation but the slope of it is doggedly positive. At 234.7, the index is at the highest level since 15 November 2008:

What's also interesting is that the revisions of two month past number is substantial. This time the index has moved from it's original reported number of 231.6 to 233.9, which is a substantial increase (looks like a little upward blip in an otherwise smoothish curve, around May 2009). That could mean that the index even now could be even higher.

The other thing to note is that the "primary articles" index has been going up consistently. I will need to do a separate analysis of that (another post!).

At this rate we should be out of the "deflation" cycle by November. I'm not sure how to call it, but to me the high dependence on food makes the WPI very skewed. My urban-level expenses have been fairly constant or dropped - rent, fuel, eating out, holidays etc. But then that's me - may be different for others.

Goldman’s high-frequency code stolen?

2 comments Written on July 7th, 2009 by
Categories: Goldman
Reuters has it, and an analysis from Zero Hedge:
on Friday, one Sergey Aleynikov was arrested at Newark airport by FBI agents, as he was coming back from a trip to Chicago (maybe visiting his new employer), on what are basically industrial espionage charges. Sergey, or Serge as his Linked-In account identifies him, was VP of equity strategy over at 85 Broad (or maybe 1 New York Plaza, his detailed Bloomberg Bio page has disappeared) had the following responsibilities at Goldman Sachs according to Linked-In:

• Lead development of a distributed real-time co-located high-frequency trading (HFT) platform ..

In the 5 days immediately preceeding his departure from "Financial Institution" (potentially GS), Sergey allegedly downloaded 32 megs of ultra top-secret quant trading proprietary code, that, according to Special Agent McSwain's affidavit, he then proceeded to encrypt and upload to a website in Germany, with a UK owner. One can only imagine the value of this "code" not only to Goldman but to the highest bidder. After all, from the affidavit: "certain features of the [code], such as speed and efficiency by which it obtains and processes market data, gives the Financial Institution a competitive advantage among other firms that also engage in high-volume automated trading.The Financial Institution further believes that, if competing firms were to obtain the [code] and use its features, the Financial Institution's ability to profit from the [code]'s speed and efficiency would be significantly diminished." Needless to say, many others are now also likely hot on the trail of the code.

To those that don't think ZH is a worthy source, the NY Times has it as well. (HT: Anil Shenoy)

A quick recap: Programmer at Goldman's High Frequency Quant trading division decides to quit for 3x his salary, and transfers source code out of the US. 32 megs of it. They figure it out but take a month to do so, and have him arrested. Now, the code's been out there for a month, presumably looking for a buyer. It's likely someone already knows about it - and despite Goldman's "security" claims, it could have been a potential [failed] buyer that raised the alarm.

If it's true, it might be a volatile time for the high freq trading programs in the US. (In India, the high freq traders are all human. You should see the speed they can type orders.)