ABAN’s Pearl Sinks, Stock Down 16%

14 comments Written on May 14th, 2010 by
Categories: General

Aban Offshore announced that Aban Pearl, a semi submersible ship owned by a subsidiary, sank in offshore Venezuela early yesterday.

Let’s look at some interesting data. Did someone know about this slightly before the NSE announced it? It was on the wire at 15:09.

image 

The Stock on the other hand started tanking a little bit earlier, around 2:50 pm.

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Obviously, people knew earlier or through other sources. And this kind of thing will never get investigated. So the people who speak of efficient markets might want to look at this. And worse, they didn’t even sell enough, it seems – the stock is now at 847, a good 16% below yesterdays closing price.  

Let’s now look at impact. The ship might be covered with insurance but it seems – and I don’t have anything but twitter notes to back this up just now – semi-submersibles aren’t in great supply so they’ll take time to get a new vessel. Pearl supposedly was 10% of revenues, and people are concerned it will hurt the Rs. 135 EPS they showed last year.

This is just a placeholder, let’s see how the news plays out.

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About the Author:
http://www.capitalmind.in
The man behind Capital Mind. Deepak is a co-founder at MarketVision, a financial knowledge company. Deepak also provides data research and consulting services, and now lives in Bangalore. Connect with him at deepakshenoy@gmail.com.

14 comments “ABAN’s Pearl Sinks, Stock Down 16%”

>Just to add to the information you have given, A semi-submersible, the associated risers (pipelines) will take years to fabricate and get to the oil-field. Unless they can get one on lease. So you can forget the gas/oil output from that given field in the near future.

>looks like venezuelan president hugo chavez broke the news by tweeting about it!

http://www.aolnews.com/world/article/venezuelas-hugo-chavez-tweets-news-of-gas-rig-sinking/19475847

>I think I saw the news as a Photo-News on the Economic Times Website much much earlier than around 15:00.

Also checked market at that time and ABAN was already 17% down.

>Yahoo reports http://yhoo.it/cAttsr : "President Hugo Chavez broke news of the accident at the rig at 3:11 a.m. (0741 GMT) from his Twitter account, @chavezcandanga." May be that explains :)

>I can’t stop myself positing a comments here..

See these insider-trading is rampant in less developed market like India. And I don’t see any hope in India which runs by the corrupt and for the corrupt. I was doing some analysis. I was astonished by the fact that most of the big up-down moves were followed by quarter result announcement in newspaper on next day.(I followed Times of India.)

Explanation is very simple. They must have sent these confidential results at least a day before publishing or announcement. I don’t think SEBI or Corporate laws are applicable to Newspaper Editors or the persons involving in printing these results. So legally they are beyond law and so they can act on these inside information or sell these inside information to outsiders.

I have only advice to retail investors …. STAY AWAY FROM STOCK MARKET…. The truth is retail investor doesn’t make money from stock market. (The hopping return some have got from long term investment is just because of overall economic appreciation (or I would say inflation). They would have got the same return if the money were put in Real-estate or Gold or anything non-perishable instead of stocks ….

So BEAWARE ….. stay away from STOCKS ….. If you have extra money to waste, put it in MF via SIP.

>Same kind of behavior was observed in RNRL just before the Judgment in the RIL_RNRL case was announced.

>Aban Semi submersible rig has been insured probably to the full value. So it may not have material impact on the Capital Loss. However production loss has to be figured out. Seems it is a good buy at these levels.

MK

>Bloomberg UTV (guess even cnbc) reported this at 8.30 AM and stated the source as twitter (either some Aban manager or Chavez). Analyst discussing this at that time stated that this rig contributes around 30% to EPS. Thus, stock opened more than 15%.

>So you say that there is a delay of 20 minutes before the stock price matched the available news.

Correct me if I am wrong, but the same people who talk about efficient market also say that the price reflects everything.

I really think these sort of incidents can not be controlled. Think of the time it takes for the news to flow from the rig to the regional office to the head office then to corporate communications and then to NSE who then publish it. I mean the reason no investigates these is because these cannot be effectively controlled or to use the word of the season "regulated".

The best that we can hope for is that there is a greater incentive for people to get information out earlier.

>You guys rock!

Rajsmusings: Thanks for the chavez link. Here's the tweet. Someone who knew spanish could've gotten the news at 1:08 PM, it seems.

Amazing development and since then the market's tanked again.

>Most of the retail investors enter the stock market to gamble rather than invest.. and then people like AYESHA advise them to stay away from stock market. I don't understand why retail investors can't have patience and let their investments grow. Stock market is not a money making machine.. you need to give time to your company to grow and perform…

>Check this out. It was on BSE at 1442 hours. abt 30 minutes before it came up on NSE

http://www.bseindia.com/stockinfo/anndet.aspx?newsid=a673d8ee-4b8f-4d37-9baa-f48d2f069a3c

>hi deepak

can we buy aban offshore now

>hi deepak

can we buy aban offshore now


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