Archive for August, 2010

Oil Bill up 51%, Trade Deficit at $43B

No Comments » Written on August 31st, 2010 by
Categories: Uncategorized

India’s Oil Bill is 51% higher than last year for the April to June quarter. Sure, the average oil price has moved up from $60 average last year to about $70 average today. There is also the fact that since oil payments may have been hedged at lower levels (remember oil was in the $30s in December 08).

The oil bill for this quarter is about $25 billion; at $70 per barrel that’s 4 million barrels per day! Even if we presume $75 per barrel, we are at 3.7m barrels per day. Imported, remember – we produce around 700K barrels per day. Now 4 million barrels per day is a lot of barrels – we consume about 3 million barrels of crude per day, and of that we import about 2.3m. If you take last year Q1’s imports that comes to about 3 million barrels per day – meaning the extra must be what we refine and export?

With that assumption do we now import more than a million barrels a day to refine and export? That’s very interesting, because the stuff we buy and refine is largely the heavy forms of crude which is cheaper and has slightly higher margins.

The trade deficit for June was $32 billion and July has gone to $43 billion – at this rate we’ll have about $100 billion as the trade deficit (which is as much as our oil import bill, really). It should be interesting to chart this.

India Direct Tax Code Bill Tabled in Lok Sabha

18 comments Written on August 30th, 2010 by
Categories: DirectTaxCode, IncomeTax

The Government introduced the Direct Tax Code Bill today. After some serious amount of searching, I found the bill online, after struggling with pages timing out, debugging communication messages and guessing IP addresses. (Read: It was darn easy in the end, but I had spent so much time I needed to make it look like it was a bloody difficult job).

What matters is not that I found it. What matters is what is in it.

First, this bill of the DTC applies from 1 April 2012, so heave a sigh of relief.

For salaried income: Deductions are Employment Tax, Travel allowance (currently Rs. 800 a month), actual reimbursements, employer’s contribution to pension [upto 10% of salary], retirement or provident fund [upto 12%].

Housing rent allowance is fully exempt, without the complex formula – now it is limited to the rent actually paid. Nice.

Property income: Only rent actually received is taxable. You get to deduct local taxed and 20% of the gross rent, plus all interest paid on a loan for that property. If you take on a loan before the property is ready, you get to amortize the interest paid before possession over the subsequent five years, equally.

Securities Transaction Tax stays. We will now pause for a minute to pray for the arbitrageurs that died after that sentence.

Capital Gains: First calculate the gain as selling price minus cost price minus all intermediate costs. For shares and equity mutual funds on which STT is paid and held over a year, ZERO. Rejoice.

Shares and MFs with less than one year of holding – 50% of the gain (or loss) is “ditched” and the rest added to income.

For debt MFs or shares transferred off-market or Gold ETFs or things like that: To qualify for LTCG (Long Term Capital Gains) you have to hold the asset for “one year from the end of the financial year in which the asset is acquired”. If you buy on April 1, 2012, you have to hold it till after March 31, 2013 – that’s two years at the extreme. Then, you get to index the costs to inflation. If you’ve bought the asset before 2000, then you must assume indexation from 2000, but you get the option – and I mean it’s your choice to do this if it works in your favour – of using the price on April 1, 2000. This is incredible, for me, because my family owns shares held for over 20 years.

Any other short term capital gains are simply added to income.

There will be a Capital Gains Deposit Scheme where you can dump the proceeds (not just the gains, the entire proceeds) of capital asset sales (long or short term) and not pay tax. You can buy a house or agricultural land to offset cap gains taxes, within a year after the sale or use the Cap Gains Deposit Scheme, to park money upto three years to invest in such a tax-offsetting asset. You get to do this for max two residential properties for a person.

Deductions: Everyone gets a Rs. 100,000 deduction for money put into “approved funds”. What we don’t know – are ELSS mutual funds “approved”? Are "ULIPs” approved? Most likely no to both. They do mention that approved funds are –

  • PF, retirement or gratuity funds
  • Pension funds
  • Any thing else specifically approved

An additional Rs. 50,000 is deductible under 3 heads – 50K is the limit for all of them added up.

  • Pure life Insurance – defined as any policy where the premium is less than 5% of the sum assured for ALL years of the policy,
  • Health insurance
  • Two children’s tuition fees (including pre-school fees). But no donations or “development fees”.

Housing: This gets interesting. First, no principal deduction. Second, interest is only deductible if the house is completed within three years of the loan commencement. (And the pre-completion interest is amortized forward over five equal yearly installments. You don’t get the deduction during the pre-completion phase) The interest deduction limit is Rs. 150,000.

Higher Education loan interest is deductible for seven years, but it’s gotta be from a bank or FI (not relatives) and for a course the govt. recognizes. (Sorry, IIPM. Perhaps even ISB will not qualify!)

Medical expenses get a 40K deduction if you actually spend the money on medical treatment. 60K for treatment of senior citizens. Oh, and if you get insurance, that much is not counted.

Tax slabs: Upto 200,000 a year, no tax.
Rs. 200,000 to 500,000: 10%
Rs. 500,000 to 10 lakhs: 20%
> 10 lakhs: 30%.

It’s progressive, and slabbed. For senior citizens (65+), the first slab is 250,000. For companies, the rate is 30%, and Minimum Alternate Tax is 20% (but you can claim it back within 15 years)

Dividends and Insurance income distribution from “Equity Oriented Insurance Schemes” (ULIPs) get taxed – at 5%. The 15% dividend distribution tax stays. That means to go through equity mutual funds you actually pay a lot – first companies pay 15% tax on dividends, then the mutual funds get a tax hit of another 5%.

Wealth tax: 1% of whatever’s above 1 crore rupees, every year. But not including the house you live in. This is just horrible, but amounts to just 1% more income tax, if you look at it. But if someone has money in illiquid assets like multiple houses, or equity, they’ll find the going tough. Think of the promoters of Indian companies!

With about 35 lakh crores under private sector ownership, that alone will give the government more than 30,000 cr. of wealth tax revenue.

But the section actually doesn’t count assets like shares and bonds! This needs lawyer input but it seems like for wealth, they consider land, farm houses, cars/yacht/aircraft, jewellery and bullion, antiques and paintings, expensive watches, cash, and shares held in foreign companies. Nothing about Indian company shares, or bonds, or mutual funds.

EEE or EET: NPS goes Exempt on withdrawal – commutation of pension (lumpsums) upto 1/3rd or 50% of the amount in different cases.

Life insurance paid on death is exempt. This is still a great way to transfer assets without a will.

All exemptions for donations to non-profits, political parties etc. stay.

Nothing much changes, really, other than a few exemptions gone, and wider tax slabs. Retaining LTCG at zero for equity markets is good, of course, but it won’t last that long. Wealth tax can be a huge issue or a non-issue, if there is clarity on whether it applies on share/bond holding.

To me this is no big deal – just business as usual. But the equity markets have reason to rejoice.

SEBI allows Mobile Trading, Smart Order Routing and More…

No Comments » Written on August 30th, 2010 by
Categories: SEBI

In a sudden flurry of announcements, SEBI changes the technology game.

  1. Mobile trading will be allowed. Meaning, you will soon be able to trade directly from your mobile phone. I believe this is useful for people that travel a lot in the day. Mobile trading may be possible using “mini” sites like Sharekhan has recently provided, but the functionality is limited (can’t easily see order book changes, modify orders etc.). A mobile app will be more useful and can easily piggy back the current layers that brokers use online (SSL, web service layer). Plus mobile charting, screeners etc. are useful in that you can use them to actually place trades. The mobile operators, though, are of no use – brokers don’t even need them other than if they will cut costs dramatically.
  2. Smart Order Routing. When you place your order it has to go on a specific exchange. With Smart Order Routing the broker can check the pricing on different exchanges (currently BSE/NSE but MCX-SX is coming soon) and place the order appropriately. Divided into chunks, this makes a lot of sense for automated order routing for which complex algorithms have already been designed; institutions like mutual funds or pension funds can use such a facility to auto-route orders appropriately. It’s strange that this needed “authorization” from SEBI – brokers should have been able to do it already, or provide the programs to the client to do it. Strange, indeed.
  3. Call Auctions at market open: Brokers allow investors to place orders outside market hours, and these are placed into the exchange at 9 AM during hte market open. If there are a lot of orders at “market” there is a problem – the “market” hasn’t yet been discovered for the day, and prices can go haywire (they indeed do, as noted in many stocks, and brokers/punters take undue advantage). Call auctions help streamline the price discovery process – the original circular was a July 15 one.
  4. Private treaties to be disclosed by media. Many press entities like Times of India own stake in certain businesses as part of “Private Treaties”, in return for (partly) advertising real estate and coverage. This skews incentives in that sometimes negative news about the entity is held back or is spun around because the equity ownership may otherwise be in danger of losing value. In India selling editorial space is considered okay – that is, you buy an ad, and they’ll write a column about your company; I have been offered this kind of deal at multiple times. SEBI along with the Press Council has decided that such private equity ownership must be revealed on the media web sites. [I think this is a good rule, though our media companies will continue to act like hedge funds until they can.]

 

Food Inflation at 14.75%, Scary revisions 2%+

1 Comment » Written on August 27th, 2010 by
Categories: Inflation

Primary articles inflation (mainly food) was announced at 14.75% but as usual what is worry is the restatement of past data. Primary articles inflation of 18th June was revised to 16.92% up from the earlier reported14.75%. Click the below figures for more.

India Primary Articles Inflation at 14.75% image

That just means the latest figure could be revised to as much as 2% higher. We’re inflating much higher than we’re being told? At least at the food level.

Direct Tax Code Bill Kinda-Sorta Happens

10 comments Written on August 26th, 2010 by
Categories: IncomeTax

The Union Cabinet has cleared the Direct Tax Code bill, which means nothing other than it will actually be cleared by December if it’s tabled on Monday, and that means sometime in the next decade it might actually happen.

The DTC simplifies tax slabs. Upto 2 lakhs, nothing, it seems. 2 to 5 lakhs, 10%, 5 to 10L, 20% and above 10L, 30%. Nothing earth shattering – the current limits are 1.6, 5 and 8 Lakhs.

Corporate tax goes to 30%. From 33%. That’s nice. MAT for those fellows not paying tax is 20% of book profits.

PF is exempt from tax, or so they say, but the rest get taxed EET. Dividend distribution tax stays the same. Life Insurance payments and  mutual fund income gets a 10% TDS. (10% of what? We don’t know).

I don’t know if STT is out. I don’t know what happens to various random exemptions. I don’t know I can’t really say until I see the full bill – everyone’s taking data from an interview of the Finance Minister, where it’s likely there weren’t enough questions asked or answered. Anyone have a copy?

On Yahoo: Survivorship Bias

6 comments Written on August 25th, 2010 by
Categories: Yahoo

My latest at Yahoo, on Survivorship Bias:

"If you had bought Praj Industries at Rs. 2 in 2003 for just 100,000 rupees, it would be worth Rs. 40 lakh today!"

We hear something like this, as advisors and brokers coo about the long term greatness of the stock market. If you bought Infosys in their IPO in 1993, you would make a gazillion rupees, so much that you would be reading this article in your holiday home in the Bahamas. Yet, in the early 90s , IT stocks weren't the darling of the markets - more popular was a stock called Arvind Mills, which still exists and has done fairly well for itself; but if you had plonked your hard earned money into Arvind, you would have seen a stock going from Rs. 400 down to a relatively meager Rs. 43 today, only 18 years later. And that was still lucky; a number of other stocks simply went to zero. Read the rest of this entry »

IFCI Infra Bonds: Saves You Tax Too

4 comments Written on August 24th, 2010 by
Categories: Bonds

IFCI has some infrastructure bonds open for purchase, and they give you a tax exemption on a limit of 20,000 per year.

Scheme: http://www.ifciltd.com/Portals/0/IFCI%20Infra%20Bond%20Series%20I_IM_web.pdf

10 year bond, with no exit till five years, but will trade on the BSE – but you can’t exit before 5 years are over. Purchasing these bonds on the BSE is unlikely to provide the same tax benefit (it probably only applies for a purchase directly from IDFC, a primary purchase – not secondary purchases). To be honest it all depends on when they list the bonds and whether on listing such bonds will still have a lock-in etc. 

Rates: 7.85% if you want to sell them back after 5 years, 7.95% otherwise.

Options: Cumulative (interest reinvested annually) or Annual Interest Payout.

Issue Closes: August 31, 2010. You have a week from today.

Issue details: http://www.ifciltd.com/IFCIBonds/InfrastructureBonds/Issue201011/tabid/212/Default.aspx

You need a demat account. Business standard says no harm waiting for other such bond offers for the 20K tax benefit.

Let’s now analyze the non cumulative schemes.

If you’re in the 30.9% tax bracket, investing 20K will save you Rs. 6,180 in tax in the first year, and give you Rs. 1570 in taxable interest, which means a net income of Rs. 1,085 per year. Over five years that’s a total return of 11,604 or about 10% a year, which is nice. Unfortunately the Rs. 20,000 cap on the tax exemption makes it uninteresting for the people in the 30% bracket.

At the 20% bracket the net return, calculated the same way, is 10,352 or 10.35% per year. For the 10% tax bracket it means about 9.1% net yield per year. (Net yield = total interest/investment)

At the cumulative option interest goes to 12.92% net yield per year, which is definitely very interesting. I might be tempted to wait for more as the year goes by, but to people in the 20% tax bracket this could be invested in immediately, with say 10K (leave the rest for a later offering).

Update: There is an awesome comment by reader Kaho Pyare, who specifies that the return is higher because you can reduce the tax from the investment amount. For someone in the 30% bracket, the cumulative option works out to a return of 13.77%, since your investment is about 13,820 (20K minus the tax benefit) and the return after five years post tax is 26,345. Just don’t overpay taxes.

The absolute amounts are small for the 30% bracket (>8 lakhs a year) and perhaps only marginally more significant at the 20% bracket (>5L). It does make sense at the 10% bracket, surely, even if calculated returns are just 9.5% net of taxes over five years.

This isn’t investment advice, just my opinion.

Thinking Aloud: SMS Spam

3 comments Written on August 23rd, 2010 by
Categories: Mobile

Reading about Spam SMSes I’ve realized that the reason spam is prevalent is that costs are low. [Warning: Long, rambling post]

From LiveMint:

Today, Singh sends close to 20 million SMSes per month, roughly half of them on behalf of real estate developers, who have become the most prolific and annoying spammers in this particular medium. It takes Singh just a minute to send 100,000 SMSes, for which he charges Rs4,000; for one million SMSes, the rate drops to 3 paise per message. “If you call 100,000 people, even at 30 paise per call, imagine how much more expensive it would be,” Singh points out.

This is incredibly cheap, and I like that. I remember the days when you couldn’t go under a rupee per SMS. It’s very useful for business, to send quick and non intrusive status updates. The email of the mobile phone, so to speak. But is it?

More business users are likely to use email anyways because 140 characters with no images doesn’t cut it, there is no way to properly “reply all” or even archive/search messages etc. But Email has a much slower delivery than SMS. In general, you would expect email to take longer than an SMS to arrive, plus people get obscene amounts of email and don’t bother opening them all. SMS’s non-archival is also very good in the Indian context where shady deals are being done, and people don’t want to discuss it over official email.

The economics works at the 4p or 3p per SMS at a small scale and 1p/2p at a large scale. And this is helpful. I get an update every time I do a transaction on my credit card, or do an online transaction from the bank account. I get SMSes from my broker for each transaction, plus an end of day summary of each market I trade. I get SMSes from NSDL if my shares are moved in or out. This would not be possible if SMSes weren’t cheap.

And SMSes are cheap because of the heavy amount of marketing on it. Which as we all know is a pain in the wrong place. I suffer email spam and instead of bothering to send legal notices  I simply delete the message. Or, I report as spam to my email provider, Google – which gets smarter and doesn’t allow such messages in again. No such luck with SMS. Additionally, when I’m out of town, I pay to receive such SMSes inspite of my not-wanting to!

We will probably benefit from something of that sort on the mobile. An app that sits in, uses (perhaps) J2ME so it can run on most mobiles, hooks in to the messaging API and automatically records as spam any message that says “TM-“ etc. which isn’t a known non-spam entity. I wonder if such apps exist.

Back to the SMS spam. The figures are immense:

The largest sender of such SMSes is ValueFirst Messaging Pvt. Ltd, and its chief executive officer Vishwadeep Bajaj estimates that 150 million marketing messages—of both spam and non-spam variety—are sent every day in India; his firm sends a full one-third of these. On a half-wiped whiteboard at his office in Gurgaon, Bajaj chews through the numbers; assuming each message costs, on an average, 3 paise, that would bring the industry’s annual revenue to Rs200 crore.

The article says the mobile operators charge a paisa per SMS, which means 40 cr. in net revenue. They plan to go public, as does One97, another such mobile messaging and VAS intermediary.

What happens now? Do people get sick enough of spam that TRAI announces blanket bans on marketing SMSes? Will that hurt these mobile businesses a lot? Time will tell; but the real story in SMS will be how it can be used for our benefit at this low cost, not to spam us.