India’s Oil Bill is 51% higher than last year for the April to June quarter. Sure, the average oil price has moved up from $60 average last year to about $70 average today. There is also the fact that since oil payments may have been hedged at lower levels (remember oil was in the $30s in December 08).
The oil bill for this quarter is about $25 billion; at $70 per barrel that’s 4 million barrels per day! Even if we presume $75 per barrel, we are at 3.7m barrels per day. Imported, remember – we produce around 700K barrels per day. Now 4 million barrels per day is a lot of barrels – we consume about 3 million barrels of crude per day, and of that we import about 2.3m. If you take last year Q1’s imports that comes to about 3 million barrels per day – meaning the extra must be what we refine and export?
With that assumption do we now import more than a million barrels a day to refine and export? That’s very interesting, because the stuff we buy and refine is largely the heavy forms of crude which is cheaper and has slightly higher margins.
The trade deficit for June was $32 billion and July has gone to $43 billion – at this rate we’ll have about $100 billion as the trade deficit (which is as much as our oil import bill, really). It should be interesting to chart this.