Archive for September, 2010

Inflation Linked Investments

10 comments Written on September 30th, 2010 by
Categories: Retirement

Are retirement websites (and retirement calculators like mine) overdoing it? A 35 year old, with an expense of 8 lakhs a year today, will need to build up a corpus of Rs. 4.84 crores just in order to get the same quality of life, assuming retirement is at age 60 and a person is expected to live till he’s 80. This makes sense – because at 6% inflation, the 800,000 you spend today will go up to 51 lakhs (5.1 million) per year in 25 years.

The next part is tricky. Assuming a 12% long term return, you then need to invest 25,000 per month to get there, is what most calculators tell you. But is that really true?

No. Not in real life.

With inflation, your income is likely to go up as well, and therefore the ability to save increases at least at the same level as inflation. That means if I can save 25,000 per month today, I can save 26,500 per month in 2011, and 28,000 in 2012 and so on.

If I put those savings in, a quick excel table tells me I will generate a corpus of more than 7.35 crores in 25 years. That’s way more than I need.

Saving 25,000 a month for 25 years: 7.35 crores 

Inflation linked savings

To generate the 4.84 crores I need at age 60, with a saving increasing with the same 6% inflation, I need just Rs. 16,500 a month. That’s a whopping 34% lesser!

Saving 16,500 a month for 25 years: 4.85 crores 

Consider Different Retirement Costs

Consider also that costs are lower when you’re retired. You probably don’t have a home loan (or rent) to pay. Your kids are out of home and won’t need your support. You can’t digest heavy food or too much alcohol, so your restaurant bills will be lighter. On the flip side, you’ll travel more, your medical bills will be higher, and you’ll want to splurge on your grandchildren. And, you might even have an income at retirement – royalty from something you’ve written or patented, dividends from companies you’ve bought, rental income from a second house or even consulting income.

You don’t need that much

Chances are you don’t need to save all that much today – remember, I haven’t even considered the possibility of your getting promoted and getting a salary hike higher than inflation. The chances of that, in a growing economy like ours, is almost 100%. So if you get really conservative and save a lot today it may be utterly useless – saving too much is just as stupid as saving too little, because you give up today’s pleasures to enjoy life when you’re 60; what’s the point of lending to the future unnecessarily?

So go on, spend that money

I just saved you 34% off your retirement plan. Go on, spend it and buy that Nintendo Wii or Beach Holiday you’ve been putting off till retirement.

Also read:

On Yahoo: Here Comes The Rally

5 comments Written on September 29th, 2010 by
Categories: Yahoo

I write at Yahoo: Here Comes The Rally:

For a stock market that is nearing all-time highs, it is indeed surprising that most retail investors have missed the rally. And the rally in the indices has only just happened; smaller stocks (mid-caps and small-caps) have had a stellar run, returning about 200% in the last year. Before I continue, let me admit that I am one of those that has, for the most part, missed it, and have continued to lower stock allocations to the point where I have less than 50% equity in my portfolio. Read the rest of this entry »

Commission Oriented Advise

16 comments Written on September 28th, 2010 by
Categories: MutualFunds

A Jagoinvestor Forum user asked this question:

One agent suggested to invest lumpsum into Reliance MIP (say abour 3 lacs) and choose the growth option.  After one year, go for a SWP from the scheme ( of about 3000 rs) investing the same as SIP in an equity fund to get a balanced mix of debt/equity.  Your comments on this is most welcome

I answered, but I think the answer needs elaboration:

(SWP=Systematic Withdrawal Plan, SIP: Systematic Investment Plan. You either put in or take out the same amount of money every month, automatically)

If you do this, you will pay commissions twice – once while getting into the MIP (REL MIP btw, currently is giving 1-1.5% upfront commissions) and then again when getting into the equity fund (again, 0.5% to 1%). You don’t see these commissions in your fund NAV but it is something that is being paid through the management charges, so you pay them indirectly.

The agent wants you to do this so it gives him:

  • Upfront commissions on the 3 lakhs (of say 1%, Rs. 3,000)
  • Trailing commissions of about 0.5% on the MIP for a year (0.5% or Rs. 1,500)
  • After a year, say you withdraw and invest Rs. 25,000 per month. He makes 1% on each equity entry as commissions (Total in 2nd Year: Rs. 3,000) and an additional Rs. 1,500 as trailing commissions (same for equity or MIP).

Effectively you pay 1.5% as commissions in both years. Had you SIPed only into the equity fund, you would pay 1.5% in year one, and 0.5% from year 2 onwards.

Awesome Commission Deal

Never transfer (STP) from MIP plans to Equity plans. Why? The MIP already has about 20% equity exposure! Why would you transfer from a part-equity plan to a full-equity plan? It is much better to STP from a Liquid fund or a floater fund into an equity plan.

Also note – why is he asking you to do this after 1 year? Reliance MIP has an exit load of 1% if you leave earlier. If you want to do something like this consider buying a Reliance Short Term plan (no exit load) and transferring slowly into an equity fund starting now (why wait a year). This is something your distributor will not like, since commissions are lower, but it’s far better for you. 

I wouldn’t advice throwing in a lumpsum into the equity markets – if you have a ton of cash you need to invest, just buy a short term fund and let the money flow into equity regularly.

(Note: This is still lesser than what you would pay for an insurance plan.)

Video: The Money Masters

3 comments Written on September 28th, 2010 by
Categories: Video

This is an extremely interesting video series (more than 3 hours) that I’ve gotten on to a single YouTube channel. (Don’t you love the internet?)

 

You probably need to write off the conspiracy theories, but the idea of a non-fractional reserve system could indeed work. (No government debt, just issue currency, ditch the Fed). In India, too. Gotta get more views on this!

The New ULIP Regime

9 comments Written on September 27th, 2010 by
Categories: Insurance, ULIP

(This is an article I wrote recently, so here you go!)

The new ULIP regime is here, and insurers must be balking in fear. The changes? Spread commissions over the lock-in period of the scheme, the minimum of which is now five years from the earlier three; a cap on surrender charges to a maximum of 6% (or Rs. 6,000); a guaranteed 4.5% on pension products and forcing investors to buy annuities on exit; and higher minimum sums-assured on ULIPs.

The one aspect that must trouble insurance companies the most is the cap on surrender charges. For many insurers, this has been a significant source of revenue, since these fees directly line insurer pockets. Prior to September 1, a significant number of ULIPs would charge huge amounts as surrender charges – from 100% of your fund value if you exited in year 1, grading down to 5% in year 5 and so on. The idea was something like:

Phase 1: Entrapment

“Sir, you should invest in this ULIP. All you have to do is pay for three years, and you’ll get a tax-saving, and a fantastic deal! Just 20,000 a month.”

Phase 2: Realization

“Mr. Agent. It’s been a year now, and I’ve paid Rs. 240,000 in premiums. The Sensex has gone up 20% in the last year. So why does my account balance show just 120,000?”

“Well, there was 60% first year premium allocation charges, which meant only 96,000 was left; that grew to 120,000 which is pretty good growth!”

“Good? What good? I pay 240K and am left with 120K and that’s good?”

Phase 3: Exit!

“Get me out of this plan now.”

“Sir, if you stop paying your premium you will lose another 50% of whatever is left, as surrender charges”.

“Oh. Wait. I don’t care. I’ve been cheated!”

People still surrender their policies, sometimes choosing to pay two or three more years of premiums before doing so – and primarily because they had been sold a “three-year” policy, which turned out to be a much longer, 20 year product instead. The surrender charges they paid after three years may be small – of the order of 5% or so - or massive, in some cases losing whatever little was left after commissions. When you’ve lost 90% of your money, you’re unlikely to pay more for a few more years just to recover what’s left (and pay even more commissions).

Insurance companies are seeing tremendous amounts of money leave through surrendered policies. Look at the L-7 (“Benefits Paid Schedule”) of most insurers (eg. ICICI, Birla Sun Life) and you will find that more than 90% of money going out is on account of surrenders. A further look at L-22 (Analytical ratios, Persistency) shows that only about 1/3rd of customers choose to continue policies after the 36th month.

We don’t know what the average surrender charge is – but for most policies before September 1, these charges were pretty hefty – let’s say the average is around 10-20% when you consider all surrenders. When this drops to a maximum of 6% (or Rs. 6,000) for policies above Rs. 25,000 premium, this will impact all insurers. The three insurers I checked – HDFC, Birla Sun Life and ICICI – had surrenders of 430 cr, 330cr and  2,400 cr. respectively; the surrender fees are likely to be above 50 crores for each insurer, just for the last quarter.

Consider now that the high salaries in the sector have largely been justified by the high fees. Salaries are sticky – no one likes to take a pay cut – so the obvious impact will be to retrench; and going by the grapevine, that retrenching is already happening. The impact of the Direct Tax Code is also negative, starting 2012, with the loss of tax-saving status of most existing policies (the DTC provides tax-saving coverage to policies with a premium of less than 5% of sum assured – most ULIPs don’t qualify). Plus there’s a tax deduction at source for insurance maturity payments, making them less attractive.

What about agents? They complain that commissions are now sub-10% which is very less. Well, the point is this – no other financial product offers even half the “lower” insurance commissions. So there is really nowhere to run anymore – insurance still provides a multiple of what they would get otherwise.

Why is this relevant to you?

What is important to understand is how the dynamics of the industry changes – and therefore what new spiel you’re going to receive, and how to decode it.

Endowments: We’ll get to hear about traditional endowments – non-unit-linked – as a great way to invest. I wouldn’t even bother – endowments are opaque products with very high but hidden charges. Additionally, surrendering the policy early costs a very large amount – usually you would be happy to see even 1/3rd of what you’ve paid should you want a premature exit. Endowments might have their uses (for example, a “waiver of premium” rider helps continue a policy in case of disability, or a cheap way to transfer wealth when you die) – but for the purpose of investment, it is a fairly useless product.

Why sell them, you ask? Agents continue to get great commissions and the non-transparency of the product and high fees ensure you get stiffed without your realizing it.

The sales pitch of the ULIP might change – to force you to pay higher premiums, or to disguise the product as something it is not. With bankers who would gleefully sell you a ULIP when you ask for a fixed deposit, you have to be careful! So here’s a set of steps

First, don’t sign a document if it contains the word “insurance” unless you receive the complete detailed brochure for the investment.

Second, check for phrases that steal your money away from you: Premium allocation charge means they’ll take that much away. Policy Administration Charge is another premium stealing measure; earlier it used to be miniscule but now they have “tweaked” the policies around. “Administration” charges can add up to 5% of your fund value per year and what you will see is 0.4% per month, another dirty way to hide theft. Fund management charges apply at about 1.5% per year, which is okay – this is charged even by mutual funds. Mortality Charges are, again, okay because this is what the real charge of insurance is – what they take to give you the sum assured in case you die.

Lastly, add up the charges (other than mortality). Most policy charges will add up to 10-15% in the first year. Then, throw all these documents away.

I would invest in a long-running, diversified mutual fund instead; because paying 10-15% for investing your money is financially stupid, when you’ll pay only management fees in a mutual fund. (For funds like HDFC Top 200 or HDFC Equity, the total recurring fees, including trustee, registrar and other fees, adds up to 1.8%)

Yes, you will ask me about insurance – for that, I would buy a term plan; online term plans are available from ICICI Prudential and Aegon Religare for extremely low premiums. (A policy of 1 crore for a 35 year old will cost less than Rs. 25,000 per year) More insurers will offer low cost term plans, and as our life expectancy grows with better medical care, we will find premiums coming down over the next few years. I don’t like ICICI and Religare Claim payout ratios are horrible so I’ll wait.

My method does not help the profitability of insurers either, especially those who wanted to make money stealing it from us. The good old method of making profits from the practice of insurance must take center stage; the method of making money without killing us in the process.

OT: Indian Internet Broadband Subscribers at 97 lakh

3 comments Written on September 26th, 2010 by
Categories: Mobile, Telecom

Grabbing data from TRAI, I managed a few quick graphs on what I’m really looking for.

First, a generic look at the Telecom growth in India. Phenomenal, with telecom penetration at 58% in July 2010 compared to 24% in Jan 2008. The recession has been kind!

Total Indian Telecom Subscribers

(Source: TRAI)

According to TRAI, we have 68 crore (688 million) telecom users, of which 65.2 cr. are wireless. About 3.6 cr are wired connections, but the number of wired connections has been falling:

Wired Subscribers

The unfortunate part about that is that broadband connections are currently only possible through a wired connection. Yet, the broad band growth is highly impressive!

India broadband subscribers

India broadband subscriber growth

That might not mean much to most of you – but when I did my last startup (Moneyoga) the data was truly disappointing with less than 40 lakh (4 million) broadband subscribers in 2008. But since then growth has kicked in – today, we seem to have about 97 lakh broadband subscribers. This probably reflects the total number of Broadband connections in India (at 97 lakh) not just users – so there are likely to be many more users.

Wired connections should pick up too – unless the 3G and BWA connections make broadband available without a wire running into your house. I had a WiMAX connection in Mumbai which gave me a 1 Mbps connection with a simple antenna, but that hasn’t scaled to the rest of the country yet.

Broadband means video is accessible, and that hopefully this growth story will continue and push broadband users into 2-3 crore (20 to 30 million) soon, which should help the Great Indian Internet Startup Story which currently seems to have a lot of interest, but not many serious exits.

This is quite exciting for me because my next venture will be in online video, specifically for the Indian market. Details are sketchy. I’m not in “stealth mode” – I currently don’t have anything to show, which is why talking about it is futile, would much rather show you!

Deepak Shenoy Talks: Nifty EPS

8 comments Written on September 24th, 2010 by
Categories: Video

A quick video – excuse the date, and the background noise – that’ll help you understand how to calculate the Nifty EPS (Earnings Per Share):

 

Would love your comments! I’m going to do this much more often now.

Primary Articles Inflation at 16.8%

No Comments » Written on September 23rd, 2010 by
Categories: Inflation

Primary articles inflation goes to 16.8%, increasing slightly from the 16.2% last week.

Primary Articles Inflation: 16.80%

Last year, the month of September was benign, so expect a high headline figure in the next two weeks as well. With potential floods, we aren’t going to have a great food supply situation in October – perhaps the rains stop now and help.

Not plotting revisions now – the index data is changing as we step into a new base year, so I’ll let revisions be for a couple months.

Posts on Inflation: