Archive for September, 2010

Market-Cap to GDP: Nonsense, says Moneylife

10 comments Written on September 23rd, 2010 by
Categories: Uncategorized

Moneylife doesn’t like the market-cap to GDP indicator.

Consider for instance, the period between 1994 and 2003 when the economy grew every single year, clocking average GDP growth of 6.8% a year. What did the Sensex do during this period? Shocking, but during this very period, the Sensex was down a massive 39%! So the idea that you should hold on to your stocks, or buy some more since India’s GDP growth is going to be strong, is bunkum.

There are similar instances from other economies too. Asian economies like South Korea, Taiwan and Japan enjoyed some periods of scorching economic growth in the latter half of the 20th century. Surely, their stock markets were on fire too, as expert views would suggest. Not quite.

Taiwan clocked a GDP growth of over 5% between 1990 and 2008. How did its stock market fare during this period? It fell almost 50% from its level of 12,000 on January 1990. Taiwan’s economic growth story is one of great success but its stock market performance is one of the worst in the developing world. It pays to look at facts before peddling an opinion.

Can’t deny they have a point. Stock markets are hardly a barometer of the economy – consider that from Jan 2008 to now, the stock markets are FLAT – but on a nominal basis, our GDP has grown about 40% (from 49 lakh-cr. to 69 lakh-cr.).

Overall, the market-cap-to-GDP figure may not indicate that we are NOT in a bubble. But could a high figure indicate we ARE in a bubble? I’m not sure about that either. Look at a long term chart (thanks Kaushik, [Source])

Market Cap to GDP 1976-2007

and a chart I made for after that:

Mkt Cap to GDP

We’re still above the 100% mark – and historically, crossing the 100% mark has not lasted too long – about six months. But then the US has spent about 13 of the last 14 years above 100%! (source: Barry Ritholtz and The Chart Store)

Ritholtz/The Chart Store: US Market Cap to GDP

Other related posts:

Conclusion: Move along, nothing to see here. I doubt this is anything more than just a correlation – there’s not much weight in the idea that stock market capitalization relates to GDP in any meaningful way.  Of course, I would love to hear alternative thoughts.

At Yahoo: The Ministry of Mis-selling

No Comments » Written on September 22nd, 2010 by
Categories: Yahoo

I write on Yahoo: The Ministry of Mis-selling

Have you missold your ULIP today?

Dear Insurance Agent,

After the forced rejigging of ULIPs, you must be in dire straits in trying to sell insurance without gauging your customers' eyes out in the form of commissions. But do not despair. It is possible to make money in any situation, and this one is no different. All you need is appropriate verbiage. You will tell people about the current plans offering so much more - upto 30 times their annual premium! Omit of course that for someone who can afford Rs. 50,000 per year, the 15 lakh cover offered is woefully inadequate - if they don't know that, why should you educate them? Read the rest of this entry »

Auto-Debit on Credit Cards: Don’t Do It

3 comments Written on September 22nd, 2010 by
Categories: CreditCards

Subramoney talks about how his credit-card payment went for a toss, with ICICI Netbanking failing when he most needed it, and he had to pay a fine. A suggestion via a comment was to do auto-debit instead. But that’s a HUGE mess – I wouldn’t recommend it at all.

Why not?

Look at the terms. (ICICI and HDFC auto-debit forms are online)

I unconditionally and irrevocably authorize HDFC Bank Ltd. to debit my Savings/Current account for .. (minimum/total amount due).

Really? Unconditionally? Even if they decide to charge me some crappy fee for no reason at all. And don’t tell me that won’t happen – there have been so many dirty transactions at credit cards that I still have to proof-read all my statements in microscopic detail.

The Past Scandals

Remember the Citi-Credit Card scam? To those who don’t – read this article by Monika Halan – the funda was that Citi would charge about Rs. 99 per month as an “insurance premium”, after providing the first year free on the card. This became a big scandal because more people realized it and Citi refused to stop the practice initially, saying customers could cancel if they wanted to. Only much later after all sorts of media reports did they stop it.

Even now, I get calls about health insurance and other “Plat-5” schemes where they can debit your card by just your instructions on the phone. That means if you find something like this on your card bill, and it has an auto-debit, your card will get charged even if you dispute it! It can take months to resolve, and meanwhile, the money is gone.

Charged for even a temporary Lack of Balance

If for any reason you don’t have money in the bank on the day they decide to debit your card – remember, it’s not debited on the due date but a few days before, and you don’t know when – you get hit with the bank fees for “insufficient balance” and the card fees for “auto debit rejection”. These can add up to Rs. 1,000 after service tax. And now, you have to work with two entities – the bank and the card – to figure out what happened. Additionally, until you make the payment, you may be charged interest on the card balance!

Misaligned Incentives

Like @p0ppad0m said on twitter:

Makes it difficult to dispute charges, since the card company has no incentive to investigate after u've paid

Exactly. Once they have the money, it’s your problem.

Can’t take it back

The second worrying point is "irrevocably”. That means once you give your auto-debit instruction, you can’t take it back. They reinforce it later:

I further agree that the auto debit instruction cannot be withdrawn/cancelled without the written consent of <bank>.

Wow. That really clinches it.

So how do you pay your credit card bill?

  • Online transfer – now most banks allow credit card payments from other banks’ netbanking facilities.
  • Visa Money Transfer, Mastercard Moneysend – if you have a third-party transfer registered online you can use it to pay any credit card bill. (Check out Visa Money Transfer at HDFC)
  • Pay via a cheque. This was my preferred mode of operation until the netbanking facilities opened up. Sometimes banks play dirty and don’t cash the cheques until after the due date. This is a mess, because you need proof of having dropped something at an ATM.
  • Pay in cash at a teller counter – I’ve done this when the cheque would have been too late. But banks usually charge for this separately.

Keep a photocopy of your application forms

Atul Chitnis (@achitnis) mentioned that he was auto-debited despite not applying for it. But he raised hell and they said he had registered – he had to show them a photocopy of his application form to fix the problem. This is a great piece of advice – keep a photocopy of your application forms (not just credit cards, of mutual funds, or share broker accounts or such).

Conclusion

I wouldn’t go into an auto-debit with these onerous terms. Sure, once in a while I may have to drop a cheque if netbanking fails, but it’s far easier than hoping that these companies will continue to be honest forever. I’d rather keep the reins in my hands.

Munger’s Chutzpah, Overheating India, PMI

2 comments Written on September 21st, 2010 by
Categories: PMI, Readings

Mish is pissed at Charlie Munger’s Gall, Chutzpa and Unmitigated Effrontery when Munger thanked God Bailouts were given rather than handouts. I agree with Mish – this is rich, coming from a guy who benefited hugely from the bailouts. To tell the working classes to “suck it up and cope” is very very insensitive, and is the exact kind of argument that will provoke the average american to poke him with pitchforks if the tables turn violently. At this point, there is probably enough outrage to say that if there is another crisis, there will be zero public tolerance for a wall street bailout. Which, I really think, is a good enough reason for the people in power to do anything they can to prevent another crisis – precisely because next time, there will be no financial system to speak of. But I digress.

Niranjan Rajadhyaksha asks if India is overheating. The answer seems to be no – considering moderated scale of growth, M3 growth (only 15.1%), bank credit growth of just 20%, inflation comign down, lack of a credit bubble and the fact that our market-cap to GDP is only 104%. All the data looks good compared to Jan 2008, but I’m not sure that was the tipping point for “overheating” – that point was likely to have been a long time earlier (and remember, this is the time when the world economy was doing fairly well, in comparison with now). Are we reaching bubble territory – definitely, with market caps going higher than GDP (and wait, a good number of more IPOs are on the way) and P/E rations going through the roof. Niranjan does complain about current account deficits, but honestly that’s bound to happen because we are a net importer, and we won’t let our currency appreciate in any serious way. The fiscal situation seems worse than it needs to be, with the government doing the overspending rounds again. That is sad, and looking at the state of the Common Wealth Games, I doubt the government should be trusted with anything more complex than, say, sharpening a pencil.

Overheating or not, Cops are throwing migrant workers out of Gurgaon.

India’s September PMI shows a fall to 59 from 61 – but everything above 50 is expansionary so there.

Americans Are Not Deleveraging (Yet)

4 comments Written on September 21st, 2010 by
Categories: Readings

A guest post at Naked Capitalism talks about how American consumers are actually spending, not deleveraging.

  • 6 million homeowners are not paying their mortgages, and the $8 billion in cash thus freed per month is being spent.
  • The rest of them aren’t cutting down debt on their own – their banks are cutting it for them. Of the $610 billion in reduced household debt, $588 bn is a result of post-default write-downs!
  • The equity portion of real estate has fallen (due to falling prices) by half – but household debt is still at about the $12 trillion levels, not very different. In that sense leverage has gone up.
  • The overhang of debt and the banking system is slowly being transferred to the government (read: taxpayers), which is why deleveraging is simply not happening.

America has become dependent on debt, so much that it seems they can’t imagine life without it. For instance, in an Obama show on CNBC yesterday, there was a question about “what changes have you made?” – his reply was that if your kids need student loans we have kept them cheap, if you need credit cards, we keep them honest, if you need mortgage loans we make sure you continue to get the best deals. All about making sure people still get access to cheap debt; on the back of a crisis that was caused by cheap money.

We’re not in much better shape over in India – a lot of our economy is also debt, but a large chunk is not institutionalised – i.e. from friends, family, local moneylenders, gold backed borrowing and so on. Institutional lending has been easily available to people who don’t really need the money – large corporates, IPO financing and credit cards for the rich – and very difficult for those who really do, like the local shop owner, or a driver that needs a motorbike to commute, or a low-income household for their kid’s education. In a way, the Obama processes may make sense to people here, but honestly there is only talk and no real appetite to expand credit to where it’s really needed. Why? Because we can’t think about double digit NPAs in a highly leveraged system (i.e. if you can lever your money 10x, you can’t have 10% losses on your exposure, it wipes you out). And double digit NPAs will happen – because if you expand credit the unscrupulous people will find ways to grab the money and run, far earlier than the actually credit-deserving people understand their newly available access. There are no easy answers, though; the status quo will not be disturbed unless there is a shakedown, and there will be a shakedown from an area we least expect.

Going back to the US, read about nearly 7 million houses that aren’t currently in the market – the “shadow inventory”. That’s a lot of houses. They won’t all come on to the market at the same time, but they’ll keep prices from going up too much – as prices come, the houses will be listed. A large lender, GMAC, has stopped its foreclosure process because of a technical problem with the process (they’re not sure they can claim ownership of the mortgage with current paperwork,  and have perhaps filed false affidavits to foreclose) and the discussion is getting more and more interesting. If there’s a problem with ownership paper-trails, foreclosures might be stopped for longer, and the shadow inventory will only build up. Meanwhile, living rent-free is the in-thing, I imagine.

Macro Charts: Nifty near 6,000

3 comments Written on September 20th, 2010 by
Categories: Nifty

The Nifty reached a relative high today, closing just off the 6,000 mark.

Nifty chart

What I don’t like is the volume – typically we should see rapidly increasing volumes, but that has not happened.

Most of the volume has come from FII purchases, though:

FII net purchases cumulative for 2010

And look at the FII versus DII data for this year:

image

Recently, nearly all the DII Data is negative, while FIIs piled on. A look at valuations – the Nifty P/E ratio today crossed 25 – a sign of overvaluation? The last time the Nifty P/E crossed 25 was 11 Oct 2007, and in three months the P/E reached 28 before the Nifty crashed in Jan 2008. Prior to that, the Nifty crossed 25 P/E in Jan 2000, but a warning – that was based on earnings from annual reports, not quarterlies as the P/E is calculated now. Nevertheless, two things happened similar to 2007 – the Nifty P/E went to 28 before it crashed, and the subsequent crash took four months or so.

But in those days no one was expecting a crash – now, everyone seems to be doing so.

image

Also, EPS growth is now at a miniscule 6% compared to last year. A look at the Nifty normalized P/E and EPS growth:

 Nifty Normalized P/E and EPS growth

Obviously valuations are stretched, but they could get a lot more stretched before they fall. Unlike the last time, I’m paring down my longs – about 40% long right now, with trailing stops. I don’t care if I miss the rest of this rally, but I keep enough in there for it to be a meaningful ride.

I think we should see a new high, but all bets are off right now. Trailing stops, very short holding periods, and staying nimble is the call of the day.

Defending SEBI on Private Treaty Revelations

3 comments Written on September 18th, 2010 by
Categories: Uncategorized

Sukumar Ranganathan at the Mint writes – Should private treaties remain private?

By itself, a private treaty isn’t illegal or unethical. It is simply a barter deal where the media company gets a stake or an asset from an advertising client instead of money. In return, the advertiser gets airtime or advertising space. However, as some media firms have discovered, it is possible to talk up the value of this stake or asset using the media at their disposal. In effect, these media firms put out news that isn’t true (or isn’t entirely true) with an eye on their own finances and with little regard to readers and viewers. Some of them may also happen to be current or future investors in the advertiser whose story is being talked up. Things have now reached such a state that most people believe that private treaties, by their very nature, are unethical. In an ideal world, it is quite possible that private treaties won’t exist and media firms may be able to sell airtime or advertising space (and clients, buy air time or advertising space) without resorting to such arrangements. Yet, in the real world, there really are some advertisers who cannot afford to pay in cash for advertising. To be sure, there are also many large and well-heeled advertisers who prefer such deals with media firms. In such cases, media firms should ask themselves what the motives of this advertiser are. Few do this, given the competitive nature of the advertising business.

Again, in an ideal world, the Press Council of India would have addressed the issue. As that organization’s report on paid content (essentially advertising passed off as news), however, shows—the council put out an elaborate and strongly worded first report which identified many of the offenders, suggested remedies, and (this isn’t really relevant but I have to say it) made glowing references to Mint and its zero-tolerance code of conduct for journalists; it then buried this report and put out a smaller, weaker second report—that may be too much to expect. Last month, Sebi stepped in and dealt itself a hand in the private treaty phenomenon—it mandated that media firms that had private treaties with an advertiser would have to disclose this in every article about the advertiser.

Generally, disclosure, especially full disclosure, is a good thing. Every time Mint, published by HT Media, carries a story on Jubilant Organosys Ltd, for instance, it notes the fact that the promoters of the two companies are closely related. Yet, Sebi’s order would require all reporters to be aware of the private treaties their company has entered into and I am sure that this will change their behaviour. Remember, we are not speaking about reporters and editors being forced to say good things about an advertiser because it has a private treaty with their company. In Mint’s case, we are speaking about smart and honest reporters and editors and the effect that the knowledge that the subject of a story has a private treaty with HT Media will have on their behaviour. Knowing my reporters and editors, I can say with some certainty that while they will continue to do hard and critical stories on such companies, they will probably avoid doing objective good-news stories about them out of the fear that such efforts could be seen as plugs by their peers in other media firms.

In effect, the disclosure that Sebi requires will affect their behaviour and influence the news process—exactly the thing the disclosure was supposed to prevent.

(Emphasis mine)

Sukumar talks about the conflict between reporting what is otherwise supposed to be unbiased, with being careful about writing good things about companies the media company has a “treaty” with; writing bad things is okay because that gets perceived as unbiased, but good is looked at with suspicion since there’s now the REVELATION of an equity ownership, and that suspicion is bad because dammit, reporters are honest unless proven guilty.

But that’s not altogether correct. Let me tell you why.

Reporters have conflicts all the time even without such treaties being in place. A reporter writing on the oil and gas industry can’t really diss Reliance – doing so will slowly remove his “sources” within the company or indeed, within the sector. (Reliance in particular has been known to favour journalists that write well about it, from now to way back in the 80s – to the extent that it took a tough Goenka to stand against them, and he wasn’t entirely unbiased in the whole game either.)

This conflict is resolved by doing stupid things like writing in a very abstract or roundabout manner, so much that no one except some insiders or journalists know what is really meant, and they all slap the back of the author congratulating him on his bravery and subtlety, while the rest of us reading the paper wonder if writers get to smoke some really interesting material before they write. Or by simply not writing bad news about these companies, unless it’s already public information.

Regardless of media “treaties”, readers are now aware that they aren’t likely to hear unbiased NEGATIVE news from mainstream journalists – that will probably have to come from either unknown people (think http://www.footnoted.org) or by people who have a vested interest in the negative news. Indeed, the news about Enron was revealed by a short-seller even though the discovery was made by a journalist, and even now, the best negative information about the random US public announcements comes from bloggers and traders.

Now add treaties to this mix. When we’re already suspicious that journos write only positive stuff, will the information that the parent company has a treaty and thus an equity stake make a difference? In a way, it will. When I write about a company I must disclose if I own a stake in it; that will tell you if I have reason to be biased. But you are an intelligent reader, and if I present my case appropriately, you can judge for yourself if I’m being honest or talking my book. If I were to write without the disclosure of my interest, that is simply being dishonest to you, and you would surely think I am dirty if you got to know of this interest later. That is exactly the feeling now – that these treaties have compromised the news, and the only way they can redeem themselves is to reveal, completely, their interest; and let us decide if they’re dirty. If some of us will choose to colour them biased because of their equity holding, so be it.

To truly be unbiased, they should not have private treaties, period. It’s a disgusting form of media ownership in what they write if they purport to be unbiased. A blogger like me never started off saying I will be a reporter, or that I will be unbiased – everything I write is opinion, and by nature that is subjective. Plus, I trade. But mainstream media aims to report in an unbiased manner; that is their stated goal, their own claim. How they can claim that and yet own stakes in companies they report on is simply beyond the realm of imagination; if anything, they must be like Caesar's wife – do whatever it takes to be beyond suspicion. Or at least, not be obviously biased, as an equity stake will make them appear to be.

One of my senior colleagues tells me that I worry too much and that Sebi’s order is fine even if it changes the behaviour of the reporters because all this will mean is that we don’t do good-news stories on such firms but continue to do bad-news ones.

But doing that wouldn’t be fair, and Mint is a fair paper.

Another of my senior colleagues tells me that Sebi’s order is good because it will eventually discourage media firms from entering into private treaties.

Again, that doesn’t seem to be right because such treaties are a form of commerce and Mint prides itself on being for free markets.

So what should we do?

If Mint is for free markets, then Mint should really not concern itself with the regulation – reveal what they have to, and let us the readers decide if they’re being biased. It’s a test which gives them no benefit of doubt in any argument, if they own an equity stake on one side – but to report without the benefit of doubt simply makes reporting what it should be, an exercise backed with as many facts as possible. There were those days in which using one data point and throwing on a pile of opinion made for a great report – but those days are gone. (and honestly, those were the Goenka-Ambani fight days, and we should be glad they’re gone)

On the other hand, the need for Mint not to get into such private treaties is not an assault on free markets – no, not at all. It’s an indication of a truly free press, a press that stands behind the ideal that it is important, above all, to appear unbiased. Would you believe a positive review about a hotel if you were told that the journalist got to stay there free, and the hotel gave her free food as well? That happens too – and due to the bad taste it leaves, some revered review publications go to extremes to ensure they will never even take a single favour from the hotels they write about. Why wouldn’t a Mint or a Times group take on the same route? Exit the treaties or reveal what they own – that’s really all that’s being asked of them.

But why do I rant against Sukumar’s point of view? There is as much or worse that is already happening in the world of markets – analysts may not own stakes, but get paid by companies (either directly as “consultants” or by sponsored junkets and such). These aren’t required to be revealed – and SEBI should have done that as well. Analysts aren’t required to state if their families (spouse, children, parents) own a stake in the companies they write about – and more importantly, if that stake went up or down in (say) the past month before the report. Routinely people say “it is safe to assume we have an interest in this stock” as a disclaimer – that is not enough, they should reveal if they’re long or short. SEBI needs to not just act on these issues, they need to reveal what will happen to violators – even with the current SEBI media order, I don’t see what will happen if a publication conveniently forgets to mention its ownership.

Having said all this, let me state that I find Mint the most refreshingly honest of all the reporting channels out there. If they were to tell me they owned a stake in a massive number of companies, it wouldn’t change my opinion of the writers I love to read, who I think will go beyond the petty issues of who’s a Bhartia-best-friend. Even though the grapevine suggests that they ended up having to let go of a very senior journalist because he got on the wrong side of a certain ex-finance minister; even if that’s true, I blame the abuse of power by the minister. For someone from Mint to raise questions about this SEBI rule is borderline justifiable because they appear better than the rest – but in the same vein, I would say that if there’s nothing to hide, there’s no need to fear. Go ahead, tell us what you own about what you write.

Two sites: Subramoney and JagoInvestor

7 comments Written on September 18th, 2010 by
Categories: Uncategorized

Gotta mention this – was reading http://www.subramoney.com again today, and this guy is good. As much as he focusses on the negative side – which I like, because I think there’s a scarcity of skeptics in the markets – he writes short and succinct articles. For the last few months he’s been writing regularly, and has a fairly good connection with industry. It turns out he lives just a few minutes away from where I used to live in Navi Mumbai, but I didn’t know him then! Do read.

Another site I’ve been itching to mention is http://www.jagoinvestor.com – on personal finance. Manish Chauhan decodes elements of personal finance, from ULIPs to tax-saving funds to what-not.

I have absolutely no hidden reasons to recommend the above sites. Of course if they were hidden reasons, I wouldn’t be telling you, but still. I will warn you though. They’re darn addictive for the first-time visitor.