THe Nifty is up nearly 8% in October and there are 10 days left! You might think housing prices have stagnated, or gone down. But October’s given a huge move to realty stocks, as they outperform everything else.
Yes, IIP was bad, and Inflation was high and GDP growth was low (announced on the 30th of Sep) and liquidity is tight and there was a US shutdown + debt limit + everything. But that was a wall of worry that stocks climbed, and climbed fast.
In 2013, we’re now up 4.8% on the Nifty, and the outperformer of the year is IT, followed by Pharma and FMCG:
The worst performer is realty - which tells you that an October is merely lesser pain if you invested early in the year.
Banks too, have underperformed, as have metals and infra.
The horrible situation is that Midcaps are down 13%. The Junior (the 50 stocks after the top 50) is down 3.8%. The move is essentially a large cap move.
This kind of move was seen in 2007 when foreign money started to come in (India was upgraded to investment grade in early 2007). The foreign investors would buy the large caps because honestly there was no real liquidity in the rest. Now too, this seems to be a foreigner driven rally. More stats in other charts.
Here’s another way to look at things - how the month progressed, comparatively: