Consumer Price Index based inflation for November 2013 is at 11.24%, based largely on rising food prices.
The WPI (wholesale price) data will be out on the 16th.
Food inflation is at 14%, while many of the other components seem to have mellowed down. Clothing, Fuel, Medical and Transport are all lower than they used to be. However this is temporary, because diesel price hikes had been stopped and they have been resumed now.
The housing price increases continue at 10%.
Rural inflation has overtaken urban CPI inflation, with prices going up 11.74%.
Impact: Should we expect a rate hike when the RBI reviews monetary policy on December 18? I wouldn’t jump the gun just yet, give the bad IIP numbers and the fact that food prices have come down in December already. Onions are much cheaper.
The high inflation, though, does its damage through mistrust, a taste of which the government got in state elections. While food prices may come down, the non-food elements still carry around about 8% inflation in them, and that will need action to control.
We’ll have to wait and see which way the RBI thinks, and even the recent Rajan speech hasn’t cleared the air.