Macronomics: Decoding GDP and the Scary Drop in Personal Consumption

No Comments » Written on December 2nd, 2013 by
Categories: Macro, Premium

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This week, we have a piece on the Indian GDP and its implications to us. On Nov 30, we had a GDP Data Release and in there were statistics that contained, among other things, lots of little numbers. We try to make sense of those numbers.

A Summary
  • GDP growth seems to have reversed at a headline level, but the inflation impact is very high.
  • The rupee depreciation has caused the trade deficit to shrink which is a large contributor to this GDP number.
  • Consumption and government expenditure are growing at treacherously low numbers.
  • Agriculture contributes to GDP in a big way, relative to its past.
  • A small trading and portfolio allocation strategy follows the analysis.
  • As usual, we try to talk less and demonstrate more in charts.
The Indian GDP Growth Story

At Capital Mind, we wrote a piece on the Indian GDP which hides a couple things that are temporary:


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http://www.capitalmind.in
The man behind Capital Mind. Deepak is a co-founder at MarketVision, a financial knowledge company. Deepak also provides data research and consulting services, and now lives in Bangalore. Connect with him at deepakshenoy@gmail.com.

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