IIP for Nov 2013 Surprises With -2%, Manufacturing Badly Hit

3 comments Written on January 11th, 2014 by
Categories: IIP

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) came in at a shocking -2% in November 2013, despite a fairly strong showing by Electricity and Mining.

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IIP has been very shifty. Even October’s numbers were revised UP marginally, from a first reported -1.81% to a revised -1.57%.

The broad components are like this:

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The IIP actually follows the Manufacturing index (whose weight is 75% in the IIP). Though Mining and Electricity were positive, manufacturing has been hugely impacted at +3.5%.

In the use-based indexes, the worst performer has been consumer durables.

 

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Things are looking very tough for the manufacturing sector. If Inflation continues to be high we have the problem of low growth and high inflation, which is an issue that can only be sorted through very high interest rates, regardless of growth implications. If inflation were to ease off, then a cut in rates is likely to stoke inflation first and growth only later, because that’s the nature of the stagflationary beast.

At this point, any rate cut will be temporary, but this might provide a reason for RBI to not hike rates later this month.

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The man behind Capital Mind. Deepak is a co-founder at MarketVision, a financial knowledge company. Deepak also provides data research and consulting services, and now lives in Bangalore. Connect with him at deepakshenoy@gmail.com.

3 comments “IIP for Nov 2013 Surprises With -2%, Manufacturing Badly Hit”

Interesting. Economists say that electricity numbers are usually more reliable (say in the context of Chinese data releases, where most numbers are suspect) and reflect the underlying economic condition better. I wonder if there is any truth to that in the Indian context? But, it could just be a consumption or seasonal thing?

Maybe it also means that the rupee needs to find a lower level for manufacturing (exports) to pick up…

what about the contribution of rubber insulated cable in latest iip data?

Ha! Good point. Tehre’s no mention of it anymore!