Reads: Dropping EM Currencies, Of Mad US Housing, Apple Drops 8%, Aam Aadmi Airline Regulation

6 comments Written on January 28th, 2014 by
Categories: Readings

Via @palmerandrew: Chart of EM Currencies:

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51 million iPhones, 26 million iPads, in one darn quarter. But Apple’s $13 billion earnings was a tad lower than the previous year, and lower than street estimates (which nowadays are a bigger thing than reality, it seems). The stock is down 8% in after-market trade as a consequence.

 

Parag Parikh on why closed ended funds are becoming seriously popular:

For simplicity's sake, let's ignore the regulatory slabs for expense ratios and assume a fund can charge 2.5% as expenses per year. Say for instance a fund is closed end for 5 years, it can have 12.5% as expenses. The AMC of such a fund would offer anywhere between 7 to 8% to the distributors. Their job is to get an investor who would be locked in for 5 years. And for getting that money for five years the distributor is rewarded with an upfront commission. This has got the distributors active. Imagine getting paid for 5 years work today itself. They will sell anything to anybody.

 

The Government will sell wheat in the open market, says Hindu Business Line.

The State-run Food Corporation of India (FCI) had recently entered into an agreement with NCDEX Spot Exchange (NSPOT) to sell wheat in the open market.

“The first of the e-auction of wheat was successfully carried out on January 25, 2014 in Delhi and Hyderabad,” NSPOT said in a statement.

 

Chinese data is suspect again, says Bloomberg. Ooh.

Hong Kong’s December imports from China fell 1.9 percent from a year earlier to HK$176 billion ($22.7 billion), the city’s statistics department said yesterday. That compares with $38.5 billion in exports to Hong Kong reported earlier this month by China’s customs administration, up 2.3 percent, based on data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

Bloomberg reports that they’re stalling Air Asia using a 1937 law that allows the regulator to call for, in Aam Aadmi Party style, public opinion on whether we need another airline:

India’s aviation regulator invoked a a provision under its Aircraft Rules 1937, for the first time, asking for public feedback on an application by an airline to start services in the country. That delayed plans for AirAsia, which had aimed to start operations by the end of December and offer free tickets for some seats.

 

New York Times on the insanity that happened in the US housing market. Come a few years, and we’ll write this about India.

The story of 12204 Backus Drive is in many ways the story of the American housing market: first anodyne, then ruinous, then resilient. It is peopled with losers and villains, lucky winners and a young couple hoping for, but not counting on, good fortune. This house’s value peaked at $540,000, plunged to $215,000, and rapidly convalesced until, last year, it sold for an amount that might be considered auspicious.

 

No faith in India, actions of Indian retail investors show (WSJ). Confusing the DII numbers for MF? Or is this reality?

From the start of September through Friday, Indian mutual funds, a proxy for the behavior of individual investors, unloaded $1.6 billion of shares, representing an acceleration of selling from earlier in the year, according to data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India.

 

Finally, someone listens. Mish reports that Europe is dumbing its silly Global Warming and Climate Protection Goals. I believe that humans are not responsible for more than a very tiny amount of the warming out there and we’re not really warmer than the past, and that some scientists are motivated more by hatred of big-oil and the funding they get from creating the fear. This drives into very bad conclusions, and I’m glad Europe’s getting the picture.

At the request of Commission President José Manuel Barroso, EU member states are no longer to receive specific guidelines for the development of renewable energy. The stated aim of increasing the share of green energy across the EU to up to 27 percent will hold. But how seriously countries tackle this project will no longer be regulated within the plan.

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http://www.capitalmind.in
The man behind Capital Mind. Deepak is a co-founder at MarketVision, a financial knowledge company. Deepak also provides data research and consulting services, and now lives in Bangalore. Connect with him at deepakshenoy@capitalmind.in.

6 comments “Reads: Dropping EM Currencies, Of Mad US Housing, Apple Drops 8%, Aam Aadmi Airline Regulation”

I think the US housing market article is a NY Times article, not a WSJ article.

Thanks fixed!

Why do you think that earth is not warmer because of humans? How does human behaviour affects carbon dioxide production (and consumption)? How many trees are destroyed for dams and mining and agriculture?

Do you have any analysis over this or it is just your wishful thinking that everything is fine?

Oh no, this is seriously analysed. I don’t write in on the blog because it’s not really something about Money and Markets (other than the fact that economic policies are designed based on it, which is disturbing)

There are a number of issues. Is the earth warming? It’s not, in any significant way higher than the past. We were higher than this in terms of temps 1000 year ago in the Medieval Warm Period. We are coming out of a little ice age about 200 years back and the increase in temps is therefore normal for an exit (and 200 years is NOTHING in the realm of warming cycles).

Btw, just one big volcanic eruption can result in more warming than nearly everything humans have done, added up, in the last fifty years! And we’ve seen a lot lesser big volcanos erupt recently than earlier (which is an anomaly we should be afraid of).

We were MUCH higher in earlier interglacials, about 114,000 years ago. We are in a warming cycle. We will continue to warm and humans have VERY tiny impact in the whole system – we are not even 1 SD away from the mean temperatures if you consider ice-core data over large periods of time.

My other problem is CO2. It’s not a bad thing for us. We survive in offices where the CO2 concentration is 6 times that of the outside. The increase in the external CO2 hasn’t been very much in percentage terms. Plus, CO2 increase is normal, during a natural warming cycle, from the seas. While recordings show it’s light now, the CO2 increase from seas will be more as temps rise, because a fizzy drink fizzes over faster when you warm it. Secondly, the CO2 emitted by humans and caused due to humans is a FRACTION of what is emitted due to plant and animal decay!

I’ve done a lot of research in the statistics that were used to construct a “hockey stick” of temperatures. They are very very wrong. They use proxies to reconstruct the curve earlier to when they had good data. Those proxies (typically tree rings) have since diverged substantially from the actually measured temps later and are unreliable (i.e. they show much lower temps). So we use the proxies for earlier data, but real temps for later data, and the tree ring data shows us lower temps, so obviously the curve will look steep! There are statistical issues I won’t get into here, but my research shows me the curve is wrong, and that we are in very normal ranges.

Overall, I believe there is warming, but humans are not the cause of it, and that warming is actually beneficial for us because none of the bullshit like seas rising X meters etc. is true or will ever be in our lifetimes, or our childrens, or their childrens. We might go there in 1000s of years, and there will be nothing humans can do to prevent it, or increase its speed. It’s best to adopt to a warmer climate anyhow.

I’ll not post on this but I’ve been posting on mailing lists and sites about my views. I believe there will be more evidence in favour of my argument soon, and within 10 years we’ll get more clarity.

You’re correct – warming (and cooling as we’ve seen in North America this year) due to nature is more than all human activity put together. We should probably rethink our stance on global warming.

But deforestation and pollution are issues in their own right, impacting the quality of life across the planet. Amazon rainforests disappearing can lead to climate changes that affect monsoon cycles halfway across the planet. The Shanghai smog is leading to a lower quality of life for its citizens. We know that a volcano in Indonesia can cause more air pollution than anything humans can put out, but that should not mean we continue to put it out. Fossil fuels don’t just contribute CO2, they add many more chemicals in the air we breathe that are clearly harmful to life. Renewable energy should be pursued as a goal not to curb global warming, but to curb air pollution.

Our goal should be on what we can control. Deforestation and human pollution are two areas that we can. Global warming is probably not.

Thanks for your perspective, and for making us think.

My thought is that pollution is bad (CO2 is not pollution, but other stuff is) and we should stop it anyway. Deforestation is a very bad thing in general (recently major floods in UP/Uttarkhand were because people uprooted trees near banks to build houses, and the trees wer eholding the ground in, which caved)

There’s a different between climate and weather, so the really cold bit in NA might be a temporary anomaly.

Fossil fuels like natural gas have some of the absolutely lowest net-pollutants in the air, and favourably compare, on a cycle to cycle, per-unit-power basis, with even solar and wind (the creation of the solar cells and windmill fins has a lot of pollutants involved). In fact the best is nuclear – which is the least polluting of them all (on a net basis) especially if you see the new “breeder” reactors which can sustain themselves almost indefinitely because the output, when added to thorium, is the input :)

In fact if we moved to CNG itself life can be much much better. If we moved to CNG+Nuclear we’d probably be a much better place to breathe! (CNG was responsible for removing much of the smog in Delhi)