Reader Shyam requested a post on the CPI index in the style of the WPI posts. Here’s a quick post of such a graph:
If you see the index last year it went up substantially in slope from May to November. So we might see a higher inflation figure in May (released in June). But after that, if our current slope continues, we will see a drop in inflation. The main issue will be the monsoon - will it be an El Nino year that causes a drought?
Remember though that last year, prices of food went up despite a fantastic monsoon. More forces will come to play than the plain old rain.