The trade deficit for Jun 2014 was at $11.7 billion, the most in 11 months (since Jul 2013).
Imports at $38.2 billion were lower than the May number of $39.2 billion (but June had one less day, remember). Exports too, were lower at $26.5 billion versus $28 billion in May.
On an annual basis, imports have risen.
This doesn’t augur well. Business Standard says that imports of gold in Jun 2014 were $3.12 billion, much more than Jun 2013’s $1.88 billion.
Import restrictions were set up in Jun-Aug 2013, first setting up curbs on imports, then removing all credit facilities for buying or importing gold and eventually raising duty to 10% on gold imports.
This ended up in rampant smuggling. As the rupee settled at 60, the RBI has been easing curbs, slowly, on gold imports. It seems that the demand, largely latent, has begun to show in gold imports in June.
Watch the trade deficit figure carefully. Capital Mind will keep presenting the data as it arrives.