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Charts & Analysis

Jan and Feb Positive For Stocks: What Does March Look Like, Historically?

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The Nifty went up 1.1% in Feb 2015, taking the 2015 return to 7.5%. With two consecutive months of gains, this looks like a good month. March has a negative average, and a negative median return (a new measure we add this month).

If you look at the years in which Jan and Feb have been positive, what does March Look Like?

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In the seven instances (since 1994) that we have seen positive returns in Jan + Feb, we have:

  • Five negative returns (from -1.1% to -12.8%)
  • Two positive returns (+10.7% and +9.9%)

Just seven points don’t make for any useful statistics. But what they’re saying is: if March is positive, it’s blockbuster; but it’s more likely to be negative.

Note: Don’t draw this inference as a recommendation – with just seven past instances, you are quite likely to be wrong.

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