About Deepak Shenoy

Deepak Founded Capital Mind, which mines financial data and provides analytics. Deepak is part of the core team that helps build, grow and keep our data platform up to date. He lives in Bangalore. Connect with him at deepakshenoy@capitalmind.in.

Introducing The Modi Index by Capital Mind

Ever since Narendra Modi was appointed the PM candidate by the BJP, speculation has been rife that he would come in and change India dramatically. What he has done till now might be debated, but it’s a given that his arrival, and the sweep of the BJP of the elections, has charged the stock markets. With the Nifty nearly touching 9,000, up over 37% since Jan 1, 2014, it’s almost like a Midas touch.

But what if we evaluated his first speech and found the sectors he really liked, and chose stocks in them to buy? Our analysis threw up four sectors:

  • Power
  • Railways
  • Capital Goods
  • Tourism

We chose, in hindsight, of course, three stocks in each sector. For Power, we chose PowerGrid, NTPC and Reliance Infra.

For Capital Goods, L&T, Bharat Forge and BHEL.

For Railways, BEML, Texmaco Rail, and Container Corporation.

For Tourism, Cox and Kings, Jet Airways and Indian Hotels.  (We thought about […]

By |February 18th, 2015|Categories: DataViz|Tags: |2 Comments

The Food Corporation Of India Continues to be Overstocked by 2x

The Food Corporation of India continues to own stocks way above the required buffer limits. The redemption for us is that stocks aren’t really going up, they are slowly falling. Here’s the stock chart as of Feb 1:

 

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As you can see, we have, in the FCI,  530 lakh tonnes of Rice+Wheat, when the buffer requirement is only 250 lakh tonnes. (2x overstocked) This buffer norm has recently been downgraded to 210 lakh tonnes (for Jan, Feb, March) so the overstocking is even more. Here’s the new stock norms:

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(Multiply by 10 to get lakh tonnes).

We currently have 530 lakh tonnes in stock. This is greater than […]

By |February 18th, 2015|Categories: General|Tags: , |2 Comments

Premium: That New CPI Inflation Number Is Both Good and Bad

We write about what's good and bad about Inflation data this time out. This post is for Capital Mind Premium subscribers only.

By |February 18th, 2015|Categories: Premium|0 Comments

Greece Talks Fail, Grandstanding By All Involved, But We Think Greece Will Win This Round

There has been a lot said about Greece, but you have to give the new government one thing: They have guts. The Greece talks failed on Monday, mainly because Syriza, the newly elected government that came to power saying they will fight the austerity measures imposed on them, fought the austerity measures.

Syriza’s point, made by Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, was that the existing bailout package would not be honoured as is. The package requires harsh austerity imposed on the Greece government (i.e. government cannot spend, when it was responsible for 50%+ of GDP earlier). The 240 billion euro package expires at the end of February. Syriza doesn’t request an extension – which by implication means that the terms remain the same – but a completely new package that gives the Greek government time (and money) to recover its financial health, but without the austerity measures.

Germany, the leader of the pack that gave the bailout package negotiated […]

By |February 17th, 2015|Categories: Greece|7 Comments

Foreign Investors Pump In 44,000 cr. in Indian Markets in 2015

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continue to buy Indian stocks and debt like they’re going out of fashion. In the first 45 days of 2015, they have already purchased over 44,000 cr. of equity+debt, and that comes after the biggest year ever in terms of total foreign investments into the markets, 2014, which saw over Rs. 234,000 cr. enter via the FPI route.

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FPIs pumped in over 33,000 cr. in January 2015. February is marginally behind at about 11,000 cr. till Feb 13 but most of the money is in debt, not equity.

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The markets have been running hot on the scene with lots of money pouring in. There are […]

By |February 16th, 2015|Categories: FII|Tags: |0 Comments

Macronomics: State Wise Homeownership Shows The Rural Urban Divide

We analyze the data behind home ownership in India. This post is for Capital Mind Premium subscribers only.

By |February 13th, 2015|Categories: Premium|Tags: |0 Comments

Portfolio: Adding an FMCG Stock

We're adding an FMCG stock to the CAPM Portfolio on a momentum move. This post is for Capital Mind Premium subscribers only.

By |February 13th, 2015|Categories: Premium|Tags: |0 Comments

IIP for Dec at an Abysmal +1.7% Gives Us Four Years of Nothingness

India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for December 2014 came in at +1.7%, which continues the abysmal numbers in the recent past.

At 182, the IIP is at the same level as it was in December 2011, which means that as a country our industrial production numbers just have not moved.

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[…]

By |February 12th, 2015|Categories: IIP|Tags: |4 Comments

AAP and Congress Accused of Accepting "Dirty" Money, as Government Steps Up Action Against Laundering

After the destruction of the BJP in the Delhi elections, here’s an interesting move by the government:

Income Tax Department, Ministry of Finance, Government of India had initiated investigation into issuance of cheques by companies which are acting as entry operators to convert illegal cash into legitimate money. Recently in Kolkata, this investigation led to detection of substantial unaccounted income. In these cases, the unaccounted income was sought to be converted into legitimate money with the help of non-genuine companies which were acting as entry operators.

Similarly and based on media reports, enquiry was initiated in Delhi into issuance of cheques by companies which were alleged to be non-genuine and entry operators. The companies and their Directors could not be traced at the addresses given to Banks and Ministry of Corporate Affairs. Examination of the accounts of these companies revealed that they have issued accommodation entries to several persons and entities for substantial amounts. It was also found […]

By |February 12th, 2015|Categories: Frauds|2 Comments

Premium: MA20 and MA5 Right Two Times In A Row, Where Are They Heading Now?

This post is for Capital Mind Premium subscribers only.

By |February 11th, 2015|Categories: Premium|0 Comments

Sahara Gets Its Dose of Irony, Its Rescuer Mirach was just a Mirage

This Sahara thing is totally funny now.

So Sahara Chief Subroto Roy has been cooling his heels in jail for the better part of a year now. Because the courts will only let him go if he repays Rs. 10,000 cr. he owes investors. Roy had said he has the money, but was never able to prove it, so the court said bring us the 10,000 cr. and we’ll give you bail.

He’s probably not liking this jail thing so much, which is why he’s been negotiating with anyone, just about anyone who can give him the paltry sum of Rs. 10,000 cr. to get him out of there. What’s a few thousand crores between friends, he must be thinking after which he instantly realizes he has no friends.

But one turned out of thin air – California based fund Mirach capital is run by Saransh Sharma who said he’d lend the money to Roy, using the Sahara Group’s […]

By |February 10th, 2015|Categories: General|Tags: |3 Comments

60 cr. Fraud at J&K Bank Takes it Down

In the J&K Bank Results yesterday there was this little tiny footnote:

12. During the quarter ended December 2014, fraudulent transactions on account of discounting of fake LC’s were detected at two business units of the bank. Amount of Rs. 60.25 crores outstanding against such fake LC’s has been classified under loss category and fully provided for.

The results showed a massive increase in provisions to 220 cr. which is Rs. 60 cr. more than the last quarter (provisioned for the fraud above). Which is strange because it best the question: they haven’t seen any further NPAs in the quarter?

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The fraud, according to Kashmir monitor, is in two places: A branch in Ghaziabad and Rajender Place in Delhi.

As per reports the entire Delhi zone is under scanner for purchasing fake […]

By |February 10th, 2015|Categories: Banks, Frauds|Tags: |2 Comments

Bonus Stripping and the Impact of Arb Fund Unwinding on the Market

You gotta hand it to Manoj Nagpal (@nagpalmanoj). (He’s a great guy with excellent insights on mutual funds!) In a conversation on the impact of converting arbitrage funds to debt funds, potentially in the budget, he spoke of the strange happenings at JM Mutual Fund’s Arbitrage scheme.

The Massive JM Fund Inflow

JM Arb Fund was one of the big recipients of investor money, which according to Manoj came in even before the budget (which was on July 10 or so). This money amounted to Rs. 5,500 cr. (approx). The entire idea was to do bonus stripping. That is: […]

By |February 9th, 2015|Categories: Budgets, MutualFunds|Tags: |25 Comments

Portfolio: Lots of Stops Hit on Friday, and A Look At The Days Ahead

We make a few changes to our CAPM Portfolio. This post is for Capital Mind Premium subscribers only.

By |February 9th, 2015|Categories: Premium|Tags: |0 Comments