About Deepak Shenoy

Deepak Founded Capital Mind, which mines financial data and provides analytics. Deepak is part of the core team that helps build, grow and keep our data platform up to date. He lives in Bangalore. Connect with him at deepakshenoy@capitalmind.in.

Chart: Foreign Investors Sell More Equity in Jun 2014, But Buy Debt

FIIs continue to sell equity as they sold about Rs. 3,300 cr. in June in equity. However, they have been net purchasers of debt with about Rs. 1,700 cr. worth of purchased positions.

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While they have sold equity positions in May and June, it’s still a big positive for the whole year. And in Debt too:

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Foreign investments might have slowed but it looks like domestic investments have come to meet them more than half way. In the near term there are two fears that will keep foreign money tentative:

By |July 1st, 2015|Categories: Charts, FII|0 Comments

Chart: Nifty Ends a Flat June to make it a Flat Year To Date

We’re done with half the year and the Nifty has returned….next to nothing. With a 1% return in 2015 so far, it’s almost been like you could have sold in January and gone away:

 

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It’s just the first half though, and the end of the year could be substantially different:

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Just a monthly summary.

By |July 1st, 2015|Categories: Nifty|Tags: |0 Comments

Portfolio: And Two More Additions To The Momentum Stocks

We add 2 stocks to the CAPM Portfolio based on Outlier analysis. This post is for Capital Mind Premium subscribers only.
By |July 1st, 2015|Categories: CAPM Portfolio, Premium|0 Comments

Hedge Funds That Recently Bet on Greece Include Paulson and Watsa

It’s seems some big hedge funds have set up positions in Greece recently that might become stressed (HT ValueWalk.com):

John Paulson’s firm acquired a 5.4% stake in Alpha Bank, the fourth largest lender in Greece and a 9.9% stake in EYDAP SA, the largest water supply and sewage company in the country with approximately 4.3 million customers.

Alpha Bank disclosed the investment of Paulson &Co., but did not provide further details about it. Based on Thomson Reuters Eikon data, the 5.4% stake in Alpha Bank has a market value of €407 million or $565 million on Tuesday at the Athens Stock Exchange.

And he’s not alone:

Some of the largest hedge fund managers  betting on Greek banks include, Daniel Loeb’s Third Point LLC and Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group, Farallon Capital, York Capital Management, QVT Financial, and Dromeus.

Also our friend Prem Watsa is part of this crowd:

Prem Watsa, chairman of Fairfax Financial Holdings […]

By |June 29th, 2015|Categories: Greece|2 Comments

Banks in Greece Shut on Monday as ECB Shuts Off Liquidity Tap; Rough Week for Markets Ahead

I would technically want to write something beyond Greece. But it beckons. Because:

Greek Banks to be closed on Monday after ECB freezes liquidity tap:

Greece will introduce capital controls and keep its banks closed tomorrow after international creditors refused to extend the country’s bailout and savers queued to withdraw cash, taking Athens’ standoff to a dangerous new level.

The Athens stock exchange will also be closed as the government tries to manage the financial fallout of the disagreement with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

Greeks can only withdraw 60 Euros a day after Tuesday. (As in, banks are closed, but ATMs will reopen)

The ECB won’t give any further liquidity (it stays at current levels). Greek people have already withdrawn 1.3 billion euros just over the weekend and only 40% of ATMs had any money in them before this call.

Also read: One third of Greek ATMs Emptied as Greece […]

By |June 29th, 2015|Categories: Greece|0 Comments

That Greece Endgame: One Third of ATMs Emptied As Greece Goes Political When Bailout Talks Fail

This might finally be the Greece Endgame. On Friday, the Euro nations gave Greece a proposal that allows it to repay its debt. On Friday, Greece rejected that proposal because it still contains too much austerity for the country to recover. And largely because the bailout proposal will effectively just do this to Greece:

(Note: Cat you see is Greek people. Cat you don’t see until it’s too late = the IMF, the ECB and all those other people)

Greece will hold a Referendum, And Whoa.

In what is a huge political coup, Greek president Tsipras announced a referendum on July 5, which is the next Sunday, for the Greek people to decide to accept (or not) the deal. Hugo Dixon has a good analysis of the situation […]

By |June 28th, 2015|Categories: Greece|5 Comments

60% of the Bond Auction Fails, RBI Cancels Three of Four Auctions

RBI has just cancelled 60% of the government bond auction today. With four bonds on sale, we had noted again on twitter that underwriting commissions has reached a scary point again and that there was likely to be an auction failure.

There was one today, of fairly significant proportions. RBI refused to accept any bids in the 2024, 2032 and 2044 bond auctions adding up to 9,000 cr. They did accept the 2030 bond at a whopping 8.13%.

 

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We have noted in Capital Mind Premium that banks stand to lose between 5,000 and 10,000 cr. this quarter as bond prices have fallen substantially (and yields have gone up).

The fall in bond prices means banks that hold bonds lose money which is “marked to market”. Only excess bond holdings are marked to market, but there are […]

By |June 26th, 2015|Categories: Bonds, RBI|2 Comments

Macronomics: Why Bank Results for the June Quarter Are Likely To Be Horrible

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Banks are going to see some really tough results this coming quarter, and we’re going to tell you why.

 

By |June 25th, 2015|Categories: Macronomics, Premium|0 Comments

You Might Not Believe It, But It is Greece Time Again!

Greece is back! We won’t bore you with the details but it seems there’s doing crisis level meetings (again) on the fact that Greece needs money, and it needs money to pay people it owes money, and they want Greece to die of starvation rather than not paying them, which is not acceptable to Greece, and so on.

So David Einhorn supposedly created this awesome graphic:

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If you want a “You are here” marker, imagine a red dot running round and round this little circle. Currently it’s at the point where “Solution has no substance or won’t work”.

The best thing for Greece is to walk away from the Eurozone, but politically they have be thrown out as if it was the last option, otherwise the blame will be on Syriza. They […]

By |June 24th, 2015|Categories: Greece|7 Comments

Optionalysis: Lessons Learnt From A Profitable But Silly MA20 Trade

We analyze the profits made on a trade based on our proprietary MA20 indicator. This post is for Capital Mind Premium subscribers only.
By |June 24th, 2015|Categories: Optionalysis, Premium|0 Comments

Portfolio: Another Outlier Company, This Time In The Engg IT Space

We add a company to the CAPM Portfolio based on our Outlier analysis. This post is for Capital Mind Premium subscribers only.
By |June 24th, 2015|Categories: CAPM Portfolio, Premium|0 Comments

You Could Get a Tax Cut For Paying Electronically, Says a Government Proposal to Help E-Payments Trump Cash

The government has proposed a policy to make Electronic Transactions more attractive. In the proposal, they say a number of things that sound like music to my ears. It’s just a proposal, of course.

The Government Will Not Charge You Extra

You typically stand in line to buy a railway ticket, but pay a fee to buy the ticket online. You pay a fee to the bank to get petrol at a pump. This obviously is a pain, so many people choose to stand in line instead of paying that 1% extra.

Utility service providers too (BESCOM for example in Bangalore) charge an extra fee to pay online. Even through a debit card. I have no idea why.

This might just go away. The proposal says get it will “examine” the feasibility of removing the charges.

On another note: What is the point of saying you will examine the feasibility of removing charges? Huh? So examine it […]

By |June 23rd, 2015|Categories: Government|Tags: |4 Comments

Learn TA: The MACD Indicator and How We Use It

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We resume the Technical Analysis Tutorial Series by visiting an indicator known as the MACD – the Moving Average Convergence Divergence Indicator.

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By |June 23rd, 2015|Categories: LearnTA, Premium|0 Comments

Conversations: Raghu Vohra Talks About What Risks Institutions See When Investing in a Country

Today we bring in a conversation with Raghu Vohra, founder at Blackstone Valley Group and an investor in Capital Mind. Raghu works closely with the fixed income investment space, and I ask him about how India figures in the global allocation scale. How do fund managers decide about whether or not to invest in  country, what risks they face and so on. Do take a look!

By |June 22nd, 2015|Categories: Video|Tags: |1 Comment