About Deepak Shenoy

Deepak Founded Capital Mind, which mines financial data and provides analytics. Deepak is part of the core team that helps build, grow and keep our data platform up to date. He lives in Bangalore. Connect with him at deepakshenoy@capitalmind.in.

Is the New Kisan Vikas Patra Creating Holes to Store Black Money?

The Finance Minister wants Indians to save more. The press release from the fin ministry says:

The Finance Minister said that in last few years due to slower rate of economic growth, the rate of domestic savings had come below 30 % while it had once touched the peak of 36.8%. He stressed the urgent need for raising the domestic rate of savings.

This has led them to relaunch the “Kisan Vikas Patra” (translates to “Farmer Benefit Bond”). These will be issued by the Postal department. The product is simple, and the gazette notification states:

  • You buy them for Rs. 1000 (minimum), and no maximum exists (each certificate has a max value of Rs. 50,000)
  • Your money doubles in 100 months (8 years, 4 months) – the annualized rate of return is 8.7%. (this is the maturity of the KVP)
  • You can pledge the certificates for a loan
  • You can exit partially after 2.5 years, rates […]
By |November 19th, 2014|Categories: Government||10 Comments

The CAPM Portfolio: Two Stops on Lousy Results and Consequent Moves

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By |November 19th, 2014|Categories: Premium|Tags: |0 Comments

Optionalysis: The CAPM MA20 Shows Another Outlier Trigger

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By |November 18th, 2014|Categories: Premium|Tags: |0 Comments

Macronomics: From Green Shoots to “Yellow Leaves”

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By |November 18th, 2014|Categories: General||0 Comments

Indian Exports Contract for First Time in Seven Months in Oct 2014

Export data for October 2014 shows a stunning drop in goods exports by 5% this month. This is the first time we’ve contracted in terms of exports, year or year (both dollar and rupee terms) in seven months.

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The only saving grace: Our trade deficit wasn’t as wide as it was last month. It still is among the highest since May 2013 (second highest month, in fact)

What happened to our exports?

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This is totally going awry now. We have a new, stable government. We have much lower oil costs now that crude has fallen about 20%. And […]

By |November 17th, 2014|Categories: Macro|Tags: , |5 Comments

Q2 Profit Growth for Nifty Companies Shockingly Low After a Vibrant Q1

In our last post we spoke of how the Nifty companies show very Q2 growth (YoY) of 3.7% on revenues and 5.17% on Net Profit. Q1 on the other hand was excellent with both revenue and earnings growth about 18%.

That was with only 37 Nifty companies announcing results. Now, we have all of them. And the sight isn’t any prettier:

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This is using consolidated data where available.

The Sep 2014 quarter looks like the worst, just when markets seem to be making new highs on a regular basis. There’s cheap money doing the rounds, clearly. Apparently, it’s helping stocks, but isn’t exactly helping earnings…

By |November 17th, 2014|Categories: Nifty||0 Comments

Japan Shocks With Negative GDP Growth

Tokyo, just as we speak, has fallen prey to another recession. Japanese GDP came in at -1.6% despite their efforts in flooding the world with a lot of money. Here’s the Nikkei:

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Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe wanted to increase a recently increased sales tax to perk up GDP. What a sales tax should do do is make things more expensive and in some random way impact inflation. But it will increase GDP too, or so they hoped. But apparently it did not, so further hiking it may be out of the question.

Japan’s become a basket case in economics. No GDP growth, no inflation, the stock market refuses to hit new all time highs no matter how much money is printed, protection of the top houses, the central […]

By |November 17th, 2014|Categories: Macro|Tags: |4 Comments

The CAPM Portfolio: Q2 Reviews and Revised Stops

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The CAPM Portfolio has done well, and it’s nearly a year since we started (We started in December 2013). The portfolio now has a reasonable number of stocks, and here’s a quick review of where they stand.

By |November 13th, 2014|Categories: Premium|Tags: |1 Comment

IIP Hits 2.5% in Sep 2014, Manufacturing Stages a Comeback

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for September 2014 is at a three month high of 2.5%. I know, even 2.5% sounds low, but it is indeed better than earlier. IIP for Jun 2014, which was first announced at 3.4% has been revised up to 4.3%.

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Mining and Electricity are both benign, while Manufacturing (the heaviest weight in the index) recovered to be up 2.5%, the highest in three months.

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If you’re keen on the use-based indexes, here you go:

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By |November 13th, 2014|Categories: IIP||0 Comments

Macronomics: The Really Scary Part Of CPI Inflation Today

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By |November 12th, 2014|Categories: Premium|Tags: |0 Comments

CPI at Record Low in Oct 2014, But There’s Something Scary About the Inflation Data

CPI Inflation for October 2014 is at a record low of 5.52%, the lowest we have ever seen in the new CPI (which has only been collected since Jan 2011. Last year the same month showed inflation at over 10%, peaking in November 2013 at 11.16%.

 

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You can see the light blue line (last year same time) sloping strongly up, while the dark blue line (current inflation index) is flattening out. Note however that the upslope will end in November (when inflation peaked last year). That means November inflation will be okay, but will December follow through?

Every component looks good. Food inflation has fallen to 5.8%, which is on the back of a very high index last year. Fuel inflation too has fallen (but that might […]

By |November 12th, 2014|Categories: Inflation|Tags: |3 Comments

LearnTA: Pivot Points and Their Range Implications

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By |November 12th, 2014|Categories: Premium|Tags: |1 Comment

RBI Trades the Dollar: Buys More in Sep, and Likely Even More in October – Will this cause Inflation?

RBI returns to buying dollars as they reveal in their November bulletin, with a purchase of $1.4 billion in September. This time, they added about $3 billion in forwards as well.

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Including forwards, the total RBI purchase of dollars is the highest in 2014 since 2007-08 at over $56 billion, and the second highest in the last decade.

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More recent data on currency reserves (which increase when the RBI buys dollars) show cash reserves at $316 billion, ($324 bn including forwards). This has now reversed trend since September.

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By |November 11th, 2014|Categories: RBI|Tags: |3 Comments

Taibbi Again: The Witness That Cost JP Morgan Chase $9 Billion

Matt Taibbi brings you a story of JP Morgan Chase and a witness who, he says, cost the bank $9 billion. They were willing to pay that much just to keep Alayne Fleischmann from giving her testimony in court.

Fleischmann is the central witness in one of the biggest cases of white-collar crime in American history, possessing secrets that JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon late last year paid $9 billion (not $13 billion as regularly reported – more on that later) to keep the public from hearing.

Back in 2006, as a deal manager at the gigantic bank, Fleischmann first witnessed, then tried to stop, what she describes as “massive criminal securities fraud” in the bank’s mortgage operations.

In late 2006, not long after the “no e-mail” policy was implemented, Fleischmann and her group were asked to evaluate a packet of home loans from a mortgage originator called GreenPoint that was collectively worth about $900 million. […]

By |November 11th, 2014|Categories: Crisis2008|Tags: |1 Comment