Bonds

HUDCO and IRFC Bonds With Tax Free 8%+ Interest

9 comments Written on January 25th, 2012 by
Categories: Bonds

When you invest in a fixed deposit, the interest you receive is taxed as income. At the highest tax bracket, you pay 30% on that interest. That means a bank FD that gives you 10% really only gives you 7%. Even if you a a longer term investor in the FD, you pay interest every year. (And the bank deducts 10% as TDS before you even see it)

The government has allowed certain entities to give you tax free interest; if you are an investor for the long term, 10 to 15 years, in certain infrastructure companies. Two of them have already issued bonds (PFC and NHAI) and if you missed those, you can subscribe to the next two coming up from Jan 27: HUDCO and IRFC.

Issue IRFC HUDCO
Size Upto 6300 cr. Upto 4685 cr.
Interest Rate    
10 yr bond    
Retail * 8.15% 8.22%
Others 8.00% 8.10%
15 yr bond    
Retail * 8.30% 8.35%
Others 8.10% 8.20%
Minimum Rs. 10,000 Rs. 10,000
     
Opens 27-Jan-12 27-Jan-12
Closes 10-Feb-12 6-Feb-12

* Retail applications are for individuals, for under Rs. 5 lakh, and the higher interest rate is only for the first allotment. Any sale of the security will drop the interest down to the “Others” level.

The bonds will list on the NSE and BSE, and if you can’t get in now, you can buy them off the exchange. (PFC and NHAI bonds will list soon) and the interest will still be tax free. However, in the above two issues, the “coupon” rate paid on the bond will drop, for retail investors.

Since the bond interest is tax free, this is equivalent to a high interest yielding fixed deposit based on the tax bracket you are in. That is, if you had an interest rate of 30% at your highest tax bracket, a coupon rate of 8.35% means an equivalent FD of 12.08%.

But this is a silly comparison. There is no liquidity – of course the bonds are listed but there’s no guarantee that there will be someone willing to buy. Even if there is, the price someone may be willing to pay could be far lesser – in terms of effective yield – than the price you want (An FD can always be returned early with no loss of principal and perhaps a little penalty on the interest) This is like a 15 year FD.

You needn’t invest in an FD to get a similar return, of course. If you’re thinking of exiting in a few years, you may be better off with a longer term FMP, where the post tax returns are around 9-10% nowadays. These mutual funds lock you in similarly, and are listed, but the interest is not taxed till maturity; they tend to yield between 9-11% (this is the rate for long term commercial bonds nowadays) and the fact that you get an indexation benefit will make much of the gain non-taxable.

(A 9% return with inflation at 8% means only the excess 1% is chargeable to tax – even at the highest bracket you’ll make 8.70%)

The comparison, for those who are thinking of this bond as a 1 to 5 year investment, is better off with a similar tenure FMP, or if you choose to be a little creative, with a bond fund.

I strongly believe that we have overcomplicated our options. Thinking in terms of “you can’t compare this with a gilt fund” etc. are simply skirting the issue. People like to think in terms of “debt” versus “equity”, and then long versus short term. FD is debt, as is a bond fund, as is a HUDCO bond. If interest rates fall, a bond fund and the HUDCO bond will increase in market price, but nothing changes with the FD. If you are in for more than five years, and believe that interest rates will fall to below current levels, the HUDCO or IRFC bond is a good idea.

If you’re in for less than five years, consider a longer term FMP or a bond fund instead.

If you’re retired, these bonds are fabulous, because they give you cash flow on which you need to pay no taxes. And for fifteen years!

And finally if you’re a short term investor with the idea that you’ll speculate on these bonds, the trade will clear itself when the PFC/NHAI bonds list either Friday or Monday. Wait to see if there’s a listing gain available.

Chart Of The Day: The 10 Yr Bond Crosses 9%

10 comments Written on November 14th, 2011 by
Categories: Bonds, ChartOfTheDay

Data from CCIL shows that last Friday, the 10 year bond yield inched above 9%, which is inching towards the high of 9.35% set in July 08. (Note: that was just one month before it reversed)

image

The spreads are incredibly tight, but they’ve been that way earlier, in 07-08 as well. For yields to fall, there needs to be either a rate cut or a crisis (when people will run to the safety of government bonds).

Chart Of The Day: Bonds Vs Stocks in India

1 Comment » Written on November 4th, 2011 by
Categories: Bonds, ChartOfTheDay, Nifty

Much has been made of the US 30 yr bonds now returning more than stocks. India is new in terms of data, and I acquired 20+ year bond index data from CCIL (only since 2004) and I plotted the five year returns, since November 2006, of the Total Returns Index in both cases. You need to take total returns – which includes interest paid for bonds and dividends for stocks.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cherry Picking 30 Year Bond Data?

2 comments Written on November 1st, 2011 by
Categories: Bonds, Stocks

Bloomberg posts an article about how in the last 30 years, bonds have beaten stocks. But turn the clock back 30 years ago, and what do you find?

image

In 1981, the Volcker move had taken interest rates – and thus yields – to big highs. The 30 year was available at 15% yields, which means a return of 15% per year (sure, not compounded).

(Higher yields = Lower prices)

Given that, wouldn’t the 30-year bond have outperformed in any case? Equities in the US have returned around 12% compounded since then, I think. Perhaps a case of appropriately fitting data, one thinks?

In India, I don’t have enough data, but stocks have done better over the last 10-15 years.

Inverting Yield Curves in India and Brazil

No Comments » Written on June 9th, 2011 by
Categories: Bonds, InterestRates

From CNBC:

Brazil's and India's government yield curves are inverting, a condition in which short-term rates rise above longer yields. Historically, such an inversion almost invariably precedes a recession, as investors temporarily accept lower long rates in anticipation of the decline in yields that typically accompanies an economic downturn.

(HT: Deepak Singh) Read the rest of this entry »

T-Bill Auctions at 8.1%+, Indian Yield Curve Inverts

No Comments » Written on June 2nd, 2011 by
Categories: Bonds

The short-term government Treasury Bill auctions, conducted every wednesday, have dramatically increased the interest rate that the government is paying for short term borrowing. In the 11,000 cr. auction of the 91 day T-Bills (8,000 cr.) and 364 day T-Bills (3,000 cr.) the cost now beyond 8.1%.

Look at the yield charts over 10 years:

image image image Read the rest of this entry »

Inverted CD Yield Curve

2 comments Written on March 30th, 2011 by
Categories: Bonds, FixedIncome

Quick post about CD yields today. CDs are Certificates of Deposit, trade in the fixed income markets at sizes of a crore or more, and are issued by banks. Think of them as big fixed deposits. This data is for 29 March 2011.

CD Yields 29 March 2011

(Legend - size of the circles is the total amount traded, X axis is days to maturity , and Y Axis is the yield in % to maturity, annualized)

CD trades are short term (<365 days) and are quoted as discount to maturity (there is no coupon interest rate). So you buy at 99.5 and get back Rs. 100 in N days.

Importantly, the last few days have been been seeing heavy and high yield trades at the low end of the game - look at the top left, there are a number of trades above 11.5% in the <20 day range.

People are willing to pay more (and therefore get less yield) from a 1 year CD, where yields are around 10%, than for a 15 day deposit where it's 11%+. In general that would mean an inverted yield curve (basically lack of near term money, but people expect that in the long term, rates will come down). That situation has been a negative for equities the world over, and while it hasn't yet shown up in bonds (where the yield curve is between the 1 years and the 20 year bonds) the CD market is showing signs of stress. It could be a March 31 effect, since strange things happen near the end of a financial year.Or it could be more deep and systemic - we'll see in the first week of April. In my view it should ease up in April, but my view is not important.

SBI Bond Yield Calculator

4 comments Written on March 23rd, 2011 by
Categories: Bonds, SBI

SBI's four bonds listed today. First question: Why are there four bonds? Well, each of the two types - 10 and 15 years - had two options: for retail (individuals, 5 lakhs or less) and the rest.

Also see: "SBI Will Sell Bonds at 9.95%"

 

How do you work this sheet?

Interest Payment: The coupon rate that is paid out every year. It's on the face value of Rs. 10,000 - so 9.75% means Rs. 975 per bond per year, regardless of the current market price of the bond.

Redemption Date: If everything works out and SBI doesn't go bankrupt or something, you will get Rs. 10,000 (the face value) back on this date.

Current Price: What the bond is currently trading at in the market.

Call Option: SBI retains the right to, after a while, call back the banks and tell you, "Listen, here's your Rs. 10,000 per bond and Rs. X as accrued interest. We redeem these bonds". For some bonds the "call option" is after 5 years, for others its after 10.

Embedded Interest: SBI bonds pay out interest once a year (record date is usually 17th of March every year) So as the days go by, the interest gets added up - the Rs. 975 per year in the above example is about Rs. 3 per day. The subsequent calculation of the yield needs to remove the accrued interest, which is part of the price. (This is also why you will see the price DROP by Rs. 975 or so every March 16 for that bond).

(Thanks to @lukkha for pointing me to this article that confirms we have to reduce the accrued interest)

Yield: I've split this into two parts.

SBI Takes Call: Means that on the call date, SBI returns you the money. They will only do this if the market rate of interest is less than the coupon rate - I'd assume they will exercise the call option only if rates go below 9% for them. What you see in this row is the return if SBI decides to exit early.

SBI doesn't: Let's say interest rates are higher than 9-10% and SBI decides to carry on. You get a longer period of holding, so your yield changes.

Yield is simply what you make as a return, expressed in a way that is understandable as a compound interest return over time.

Cut out the bullshit

If you're thinking - dude, get to the point, did I make money or not? Well, if you bought in the IPO you probably got about Rs. 50 per bond as interest till now. You'll get another 15 days of interest after April 2, which is another Rs. 42. (even if you sell the bond today) That's interest of about Rs. 90.

Look at the prices: Three bonds are quoting at a loss (less than 10,000). There, you've lost money, but if you include the interest you are still okay.

But then, if you consider that you could have put the money in the bank, which could have gotten you some interest, and adjust for that, you might still have lost money. But since this is "cut out the bullshit" mode, I won't go into that.

The N5 bond - the 9.95% retail bond - appears to be doing the best, in terms of yield it's actually the N4 bond that's done well. The best buy remains the N3 bond.

Remember, they're all SBI, and the difference between 10 years and 15 years to most people is "way too far away to bother". So the rates should be fairly close by - to give you an equivalent example, the 10 year Indian bond (okay, 11 year) is trading around 8.08% while the 15 year bond is at 8.34% - the difference is a narrow 0.26%.

Will I buy this? Er...no. I'm getting fairly good returns, post tax, through debt mutual funds for my debt exposure. All interest is fully taxable, which post tax is a return of 7% or less; I get a far better deal on short term debt funds which are giving me around 8% post tax (if I hold). The risk remains that interest rates will fall - but honestly, I don't expect that to happen.

Also see: A 9 minute Video on the Concept of Bond Yields, as a MarketVision Short Take, recorded by me.