Bonds

SBI Bond Yield Calculator

4 comments Written on March 23rd, 2011 by
Categories: Bonds, SBI

SBI's four bonds listed today. First question: Why are there four bonds? Well, each of the two types - 10 and 15 years - had two options: for retail (individuals, 5 lakhs or less) and the rest.

Also see: "SBI Will Sell Bonds at 9.95%"

 

How do you work this sheet?

Interest Payment: The coupon rate that is paid out every year. It's on the face value of Rs. 10,000 - so 9.75% means Rs. 975 per bond per year, regardless of the current market price of the bond.

Redemption Date: If everything works out and SBI doesn't go bankrupt or something, you will get Rs. 10,000 (the face value) back on this date.

Current Price: What the bond is currently trading at in the market.

Call Option: SBI retains the right to, after a while, call back the banks and tell you, "Listen, here's your Rs. 10,000 per bond and Rs. X as accrued interest. We redeem these bonds". For some bonds the "call option" is after 5 years, for others its after 10.

Embedded Interest: SBI bonds pay out interest once a year (record date is usually 17th of March every year) So as the days go by, the interest gets added up - the Rs. 975 per year in the above example is about Rs. 3 per day. The subsequent calculation of the yield needs to remove the accrued interest, which is part of the price. (This is also why you will see the price DROP by Rs. 975 or so every March 16 for that bond).

(Thanks to @lukkha for pointing me to this article that confirms we have to reduce the accrued interest)

Yield: I've split this into two parts.

SBI Takes Call: Means that on the call date, SBI returns you the money. They will only do this if the market rate of interest is less than the coupon rate - I'd assume they will exercise the call option only if rates go below 9% for them. What you see in this row is the return if SBI decides to exit early.

SBI doesn't: Let's say interest rates are higher than 9-10% and SBI decides to carry on. You get a longer period of holding, so your yield changes.

Yield is simply what you make as a return, expressed in a way that is understandable as a compound interest return over time.

Cut out the bullshit

If you're thinking - dude, get to the point, did I make money or not? Well, if you bought in the IPO you probably got about Rs. 50 per bond as interest till now. You'll get another 15 days of interest after April 2, which is another Rs. 42. (even if you sell the bond today) That's interest of about Rs. 90.

Look at the prices: Three bonds are quoting at a loss (less than 10,000). There, you've lost money, but if you include the interest you are still okay.

But then, if you consider that you could have put the money in the bank, which could have gotten you some interest, and adjust for that, you might still have lost money. But since this is "cut out the bullshit" mode, I won't go into that.

The N5 bond - the 9.95% retail bond - appears to be doing the best, in terms of yield it's actually the N4 bond that's done well. The best buy remains the N3 bond.

Remember, they're all SBI, and the difference between 10 years and 15 years to most people is "way too far away to bother". So the rates should be fairly close by - to give you an equivalent example, the 10 year Indian bond (okay, 11 year) is trading around 8.08% while the 15 year bond is at 8.34% - the difference is a narrow 0.26%.

Will I buy this? Er...no. I'm getting fairly good returns, post tax, through debt mutual funds for my debt exposure. All interest is fully taxable, which post tax is a return of 7% or less; I get a far better deal on short term debt funds which are giving me around 8% post tax (if I hold). The risk remains that interest rates will fall - but honestly, I don't expect that to happen.

Also see: A 9 minute Video on the Concept of Bond Yields, as a MarketVision Short Take, recorded by me.

SBI Will Sell Bonds at 9.95%

9 comments Written on February 15th, 2011 by
Categories: Bonds, SBI

State Bank of India has a new bond issue out (Shelf Prospectus).

Size: Upto 10,000 crores from retail, but official issue size is 2,000 crores.
Listed: Yes, on the NSE/BSE.
Interest rates:

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9.95% for retail on the 15 year bonds, and 9.75% for retail on the 10 years.

Call Option: SBI has the right to buy back the bonds and pay you back the face value of the bonds. The call option is after five years for the 10 year bonds and, after ten for the 15 year bonds.

Tax Deducted at Source: Yes, before annual interest payments.

NRIs, Overseas Corporates, PIOs: Cannot apply.

What about tax: Tax is payable on the interest in full - i.e. the interest gets added to your income. That will pull the net yield down. You can choose to buy and sell on the exchange between interest payments, but the profit is added to your income (as short term capital gain).

What do I think?

This is a great issue for someone looking for a locked fixed income instrument for a long time. Given that fixed deposits are now yielding 10% you may want to think twice, but the 15 year lock-in is fantastic. Sure, they have a call option, but that will only impact the market value of the bond in later years, if interest rates are lower. (Different discussion)

But the cynical me is thinking - why is SBI doing this? They don't need to. They're really smart people. Let me reiterate that. SBI has extremely smart people. If they could have offered a lower rate, they would have. That means this is actually a low rate compared to what they expect rates to go to. Meaning, there will be more rate hikes, and the 9.95% that looks good now, won't look so great if you can get, say, 12% outside. (Don't tell me 12% is out of reach, please. Even 10% was out of reach a couple of years ago) So that's the risk - the feeling of regret if rates go up to 12% - in fact, you will think of it as a "loss" because the market value of the bonds will be below par, in that case. But if you have a different view on interest rates or can swallow such regret, go ahead.

The full prospectus and application forms etc. will be available shortly. More info then.

L&T Infra Bonds – Upto Nov 15

1 Comment » Written on November 10th, 2010 by
Categories: Bonds

On the lines of the IFCI Infra Bonds , Larsen and Toubro have Infra bonds out for subscription too, which save you tax upto 20,000 per year. This is separate from the 100,000 limit on 80C investments. (Technically, it’s the 80CCF deduction, if you want to search and read more)

Details: (http://www.ltinfrabond.com/)

  • Rs. 1,000 per bond. Min: Rs. 5,000 invested.
  • Interest: Annual payout, or reinvested.
  • Maturity: 10 years
  • Interest rate: (A) 7.5% to (B) 7.75%.
  • Closes on Nov 15, 2010
  • Buyback: (A) option has a 7 year buyback option, and the (B) bond, 5 year.
  • Lock-in: 5 years. Post that, traded on stock exchanges.
  • Where can you buy? Download form online, fill it and put in a cheque, and deposit it at the collection centers.

You’ll only get 20K per year on this, by the way, so if you’ve already invested in the IFCI bonds this is not available to you.

The interest is taxable. If you invest Rs. 20,000, and you’re in the 30.9% tax bracket, you save 6,180 in taxes, meaning you’ve invested 13,820. On the cumulative 7.75% option you make Rs. 42,200 in 10 years, but you would have paid about Rs. 6,850 in taxes, so your net return is 35,350. That is not too shabby really – about 9.84% as yield.

Of course the actual amount isn’t all that great – nets you around 1,000 per year as interest, and that doesn’t go too far for the person in the 30.9% interest bracket.

Buyback: L&T Infra can buy the bonds back in 5 or 7 years, but you can’t ask them too. Effectively it’s a call option they have. The yield then increases substantially – net of taxes (saved and paid on the interest), the yield on the 7.75% 7 year cumulative bonds goes to 11.44%. (Don’t bother with what the prospectus says – they don’t cut the amount you pay in taxes on the interest)

In comparison the net tax yield of an 8% Fixed deposit for the highest tax bracket investor is about 5.6%. So this is very nice. Only pain is that amounts are tiny. Will I invest? I don’t know yet. The yield is nice, but will there be better yields coming along? Are stock markets simply better, regardless? Very undecided. Also the debt equity ratio is scary – L&T infra has 340 cr. in debt till now and they’re absorbing 700 cr. in this issue; perhaps I shouldn’t be worried, after all, everything is too big to fail now.

IFCI Infra Bonds: Saves You Tax Too

5 comments Written on August 24th, 2010 by
Categories: Bonds

IFCI has some infrastructure bonds open for purchase, and they give you a tax exemption on a limit of 20,000 per year.

Scheme: http://www.ifciltd.com/Portals/0/IFCI%20Infra%20Bond%20Series%20I_IM_web.pdf

10 year bond, with no exit till five years, but will trade on the BSE – but you can’t exit before 5 years are over. Purchasing these bonds on the BSE is unlikely to provide the same tax benefit (it probably only applies for a purchase directly from IDFC, a primary purchase – not secondary purchases). To be honest it all depends on when they list the bonds and whether on listing such bonds will still have a lock-in etc. 

Rates: 7.85% if you want to sell them back after 5 years, 7.95% otherwise.

Options: Cumulative (interest reinvested annually) or Annual Interest Payout.

Issue Closes: August 31, 2010. You have a week from today.

Issue details: http://www.ifciltd.com/IFCIBonds/InfrastructureBonds/Issue201011/tabid/212/Default.aspx

You need a demat account. Business standard says no harm waiting for other such bond offers for the 20K tax benefit.

Let’s now analyze the non cumulative schemes.

If you’re in the 30.9% tax bracket, investing 20K will save you Rs. 6,180 in tax in the first year, and give you Rs. 1570 in taxable interest, which means a net income of Rs. 1,085 per year. Over five years that’s a total return of 11,604 or about 10% a year, which is nice. Unfortunately the Rs. 20,000 cap on the tax exemption makes it uninteresting for the people in the 30% bracket.

At the 20% bracket the net return, calculated the same way, is 10,352 or 10.35% per year. For the 10% tax bracket it means about 9.1% net yield per year. (Net yield = total interest/investment)

At the cumulative option interest goes to 12.92% net yield per year, which is definitely very interesting. I might be tempted to wait for more as the year goes by, but to people in the 20% tax bracket this could be invested in immediately, with say 10K (leave the rest for a later offering).

Update: There is an awesome comment by reader Kaho Pyare, who specifies that the return is higher because you can reduce the tax from the investment amount. For someone in the 30% bracket, the cumulative option works out to a return of 13.77%, since your investment is about 13,820 (20K minus the tax benefit) and the return after five years post tax is 26,345. Just don’t overpay taxes.

The absolute amounts are small for the 30% bracket (>8 lakhs a year) and perhaps only marginally more significant at the 20% bracket (>5L). It does make sense at the 10% bracket, surely, even if calculated returns are just 9.5% net of taxes over five years.

This isn’t investment advice, just my opinion.

RBI – Banks Selling “Hold To Maturity” Securities

No Comments » Written on August 7th, 2010 by
Categories: Bonds

RBI’s latest notification:

In terms of our Master Circular No. DBOD.BP.BC.18/21.04.141/2010-11 dated July 1, 2010 on ‘Prudential Norms for Classification, Valuation and Operation of Investment Portfolio by Banks’, securities acquired by banks with the intention to hold them up to maturity may be classified under Held to Maturity (HTM) category. Banks are, however, allowed to shift investments to/from HTM with the approval of the Board of Directors once a year. Such shifting is normally allowed at the beginning of the accounting year and no further shifting to/from HTM is allowed during the remaining part of that accounting year.

2. In this connection, it has been observed that many banks are resorting to sale of securities held under HTM category, that too frequently, to take advantage of favourable market conditions and to book profits. It needs to be reiterated that securities under HTM category are intended to be held till maturity and accordingly are not required to be marked to market.

3. In view of above, it has been decided that if the value of sales and transfers of securities to/from HTM category exceeds 5 per cent of the book value of investments held in HTM category at the beginning of the year, bank should disclose the market value of the investments held in the HTM category and indicate the excess of book value over market value for which provision is not made. This disclosure is required to be made in ‘Notes to Accounts’ in banks’ audited Annual Financial Statements.

Funda – banks buy stuff and can say listen I won’t mark these to market because I will hold them to maturity. Why? If you buy a 6% bond at Rs. 100 when interest rates are 6%, but soon interest rates spike to 12% then your bond will probably trade for Rs. 50 in the market (to provide a 12% yield). You have basically “lost” Rs. 50.

Note: The calculations are slightly more complex, so the price won’t exactly halve; the above example is simplified for clarity.

But you can say that boss, I lost nothing – my hundred rupees will come back because I’m not selling right now. That is, to an extent, true – a bond price will not matter if you hold till the end, because you’ll get your money back. (Caveat: the bond seller should not default). Here’s a demo – imagine the 7.46% bond expiring in 2017, at different yields today:

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In 2008, From a price of Rs. 110 at 6%, if the yield were to rise to 9% the price would drop to 90. At 12% , the price would have been 74.42; but you notice that as the years pass by the difference in prices due to the yield changes gets smaller and smaller, and by 2017, it disappears completely – the price converges to 100.

Technically if you hold to maturity (HTM) there should be no need to “mark-to-market” – each bond can be said to be worth Rs. 100 (face value).

Banks move securities to HTM to take advantage of a rising yield market – where in a trading bond portfolio they would have to mark the bonds to market, and the market prices fall as yields rise. A HTM portfolio doesn’t need to be marked, so banks would move bonds from a trading portfolio to HTM – yet, when interest rates softened, even temporarily, they would sell the bonds from the HTM portfolio. What RBI has said is – you can’t trade bonds and still “hold to maturity”, so if you sell too much of the HTM portfolio, you have to report it separately.

Inflation at 16%, Falling Bond Yields

1 Comment » Written on May 13th, 2010 by
Categories: Bonds, Credit, Inflation

The wholesale price index is on fire yet again. The latest data – for May 1 – shows primary articles at 16.76% inflation, with the index widening 2.5% from just the week earlier to 299.5.

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(My earlier reports had some incorrect data for the middle of 2009, apologies)

This isn’t very good because WPI’s overall index – released only once a month now – is hugely dependent on primary articles inflation. The Monthly index (till March):

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Plus, remember, fuel prices are up and are likely to go up some more. Credit growth has now crossed 17%, and that’s again reaching territory where it could fuel even higher inflation.

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And strangely, in this process, the 10-year bond yield has been going down! Meaning, more people are buying bonds. In the last one week, the 10 year bond has actually increased in value (which brings yields down)

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The new benchmark 7.8% 2020 bond was only introduced two weeks ago, so there might be a flight to move from the old 10-year (6.35% 2010) to the new one, thus increasing the price of the new benchmark bond artificially as people buy it after selling the old bond. Still, the last two weeks have been seriously turbulent abroad, as government bonds got battered – seems like it had little impact on us.

And, looking at this it seems the market expects no interest rate hike despite high headline inflation numbers.

First Government Bond Auction Fails

4 comments Written on April 11th, 2010 by
Categories: Bonds, Gilts

On friday, the new financial year’s first government bond auction for 12,000 crores failed; about 448 crores devolved on primary dealers. (101: Auctions are underwritten. So if there’s not enough demand, the dealers, who get a commission on the bond sales in the auction, are supposed to buy what’s left)

That might not be much but here’s the thing – what devolved was the ultra liquid 10 year bond, of which 5,000 crores were supposed to be sold. The two year and 17 year bonds, of 5,000 and 2,000 cr. each, sold completely. The 10-year had a cutoff yield of 7.96%, which does seem pretty high considering they closed Thursday at 7.75% – and yet, not enough demand.

In the market yields went up to 8%. Is it too much supply, inflation fears (interest rates will go up, why buy now) or simply a wait-and-watch approach (so much being issued, lets hang on for a while).

At 8% the yields are already very good compared to insurance annuities and have next-to-zero risk. Financial Express says the FII investments in government securities are close or already at the $5bn limit. They can’t buy more than $200m apiece anyway. We’re in the funny situation of domestic investors shunning government bonds while foreign investors are desperate, but can’t invest because of limits. We really need to open this up to FIIs to a much higher extent – I’d say $100 bn for starters.

Next week’s 13,000 crores. Let’s see how that goes.

Govt. to borrow 287,000 cr. in next 6 months

2 comments Written on March 30th, 2010 by
Categories: Bonds, Gilts

RBI has put the borrowing calendar of GSecs for April-September 2010. The total borrowing is slated to be 287,000 cr. with 11,000 to 15,000 crores borrowed every single week. The current 10 year yield is about 7.74% and with the kind of supply coming up, will it cross 8% again? (It briefly crossed 8% and then went back down)

Note for people who want long term income at 8.5% to 9% buying a longer term government bond direct from the government is probably a great option, better than buying an annuity from any insurance company. (More: Low Annuity Returns in India)

RBI has also noted they’ll be selling treasury bills – securities which are between three months to a year in maturity – of 109,000 cr. The interest on this is obviously lower (order of 4%) and is usually bought by banks and FIs. There’s nothing unusual about this – standard short term operations.