PMI

The HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has moved substantially up to 57.5. Numbers above 50 indicate expansion, and below 50 are contraction.

While demand has recovered, inflation remains high, according to the press release. This can only mean that we are going to need further measures to curb inflation. The impact of a strong dollar hasn’t quite hit us as yet, it seems. (Either that, or it’s the exporters that are buying!)

Markit has released the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Dec 2011, which is up to a high value of 54.2 (remember, lower than 50 is contraction, above 50 is expansion).

This comes after three tough months of touching close to 50; interestingly, they say:

All in all, these numbers suggest it's premature for the RBI to replace inflation with growth
as the main concern.

Inflation still remains stubbornly high - and I'm sure the dollar situation with the rupee will show up in inflation numbers for Dec or Jan.

Note that this is only manufacturing. The true picture will come only after the services PMI is released, which will be on the 4th.

The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is out for October, improving to 52.

This could just be the Diwali impact, in terms of a resurgence of expansion. Let’s wait for the services and Composite PMI data, out tomorrow.

India’s HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers Index have been released for September.

The Manufacturing PMI fell down to 50.4 from the August’s 52.6, which is the lowest in 2.5 years.

Above 50 is expansion so we are still growing, but at a considerably lower pace. Noteworthy is that export orders were contracting due to “weaker global economic conditions”, and that inflation pressures remain firmly in place.

The Composite PMI (includes Manufacturing and Services) declined to 50.2 from August’s 54.5, a very big drop and the lowest since November 2008, which was a pretty horrible month if you remember. Services by itself went to 49.8 down from 53.8, suggesting some contraction.

We’re slowing. It now needs to show in decreased inflation figures over the next six months – the RBI will be careful to not reverse their moves unless they see a sustained drop.

The HSBC Markit India Purchasing Managers Index PMI for July 2011 recorded another decline, moving down to 53.6. This is a 20 month low. The index above 50 is still expansion, and 53 means a lower pace than earlier but at least we're expanding.

But of the BRIC countries, we're doing the best on manufacturing. China, Russia and Brazil are, in comparison, what's the word, screwed. (All July Data)

The HSBC Markit June Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) shows some level of deceleration in growth. It's fallen to 55.3 from last month's 57.6, to a nine-month low.

Above 50 is expansion (growth) and below 50 is contraction. This is a monthly change, seasonally adjusted.

Last month's PMI was kinda sorta slowing but the slower piece was the Services PMI (June data releasing in two more days). The manufacturing PMI has finally gone a little bit lower..

I don't know how much we'll see actual economic data follow up. PMIs are only interesting in that they tell you how much more fuel we're putting into the system. There's a long way that momentum can take you anyhow. The commentary is:

These numbers confirm that tight capacity and monetary tightening is constraining growth. However, inflation pressures are still firmly in place, calling for further policy rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations."

Ooh. Fun, more rate hikes.