PMI

Manufacturing PMI for Aug 2013 Contracts, Lowest Since 2009

2 comments Written on September 2nd, 2013 by
Categories: PMI

India’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in below 50 for August 2013, the first sub-50 level (indicating contraction) since 2009. The number came in at 48.5.

Manufacturing PMI for Aug 2013

Remember that in July the Services PMI had contracted. The Services PMI for August will be released on Tuesday.

The PMI has, in general, tracked the manufacturing sector a bit better than IIP. Even this one turns ominous now.

July PMI for 2013 Contracts, A Four Year Low

1 Comment » Written on August 5th, 2013 by
Categories: PMI

India’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July 2013 came in at 48.4 (composite of Manufacturing and Services) the lowest since 2009.

HSBC India Composite Output PMI Jul 2013

 

Numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and while we had a scare of contraction in 2009, we rebounded fast. In the face of scams, a diving rupee and tight liquidity we are likely to go down further.

Gold Shortage, Bad Rating Agencies, Services PMI , Low Auto Sales and the Fun in Greece

No Comments » Written on July 3rd, 2013 by
Categories: Auto, Gold, Greece, Links, MakeRatingAgenciesIrrelevant, PMI

Gold’s trading at a high premium. Get this, RBI. You can’t reduce the consumption of a product by restricting supply, when demand is high. Jewellers are now paying a premium for gold, because their customers want the darn thing. Soon, you will find banks and agencies reimporting gold, against “full margin” and the cost of gold in India will go up again, and so will the current account deficit.

Taibbi says the Rating agencies knew about the subprime damage and documentary evidence shows they purposely looked away. We need to make rating agencies irrelevant. (RBI are you listening? Please remove any “lower” provisioning requirements for “rated” bonds or loans)

India’s Services PMI for June 2013 comes in at 51.7 which takes the composite index to 50.9 from 52 last month.

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And Hindustan Copper has another offer for sale by the government, this time at Rs. 70. That’s a steep discount over the steeply discounted Rs. 155 that there was an offer for in 2011, and which was largely bought by LIC. I suppose policyholders can live with that.

The Brent-WTI premium is vanishing. From a near $11 spread earlier this year (and more than $20 earlier) we’ve seen it collapse to less than $5. This, says Walter Kurtz (at Pragcap) is due to easing Iranian tension:

Greece has three days to meet bailout conditions or face the consequences, says Reuters. The consequences are, says Mish, that either Greece meets the conditions or cribs and the conditions are lightened enough so Greece can meet them. Such fun.

Car sales have a depressing June. You should buy battery makers in a year or so. If no one’s buying cars, they’re going to have to change their battery soon.

July Manufacturing PMI at 50.3 (No-Change)

2 comments Written on July 1st, 2013 by
Categories: PMI

The HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is at 50.3 and stagnant from last month’s 50.1. Remember, the numbers above 50 indicate expansion (higher numbers mean a higher rate) and below 50 are contraction.

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What the big chief has said:

Manufacturing activity was broadly flat in June. Output continued to contract due to power shortages, albeit less so than last month. Moreover, new orders contracted led by weaker domestic demand. At the same time, employment firmed and stocks of finished rose. Despite the moderate pace of growth, output prices picked up slightly and input prices rose more notably, partly in response to the depreciation of Rupee.

So there’s both slowdown and inflation at the same time? Interesting.

May 2013 Manufacturing PMI Falls to 50 Month Low at 50.5

No Comments » Written on June 4th, 2013 by
Categories: PMI

The HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Manufacturing has fallen to 50.5 in May 2013, which is the lowest in over four years.

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Given this, and the dramatic fall in GDP, we might actually see the RBI cut rates some more very soon, perhaps even in June. However, bond yields rose about 7 basis points which might indicate the market doesn’t really think so.

Services PMI comes in on Wednesday – that’s been holding up the overall PMI. If that slows down too, it’ll be one more notch down for this indicator.

April 2013 Composite PMI Lowest Since Oct 2011

2 comments Written on May 6th, 2013 by
Categories: PMI

The HSBC Markit Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) was in for April 2013 today at 50.5, the lowest since October 2011. This composite index is an average of the Manufacturing and Services Indexes. The Manufacturing Index was at 51, released earlier this month and the lowest since Nov 2011.

India PMI for April 2013

What’s above 50 is still expanding, but a number closer to 50 means the expansion is at a lower rate.

What’s also not said but to note is that if the average is 50.5, and the manufacturing index is at 51, then the other component – the services index – is at 50. This means the services index is close to moving into contraction zone.

All indications seem to be of a slowdown, but even in the PMI releases there is a note of caution on prices – inflation’s cooling but wage growth remains high.

April 2013 PMI At Lowest Since Nov 2011

2 comments Written on May 2nd, 2013 by
Categories: PMI

The HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is at 51.0 for April, the lowest since November 2011. Remember that anything about 50 is “expansion” and below 50 is contraction – so we’re still growing at an increasing rate, just not quite as fast as earlier.

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While this sounds bad, the Nifty touched 6,000 again, +1.2%. This could be due to the feeling that the slowing down of the world economy might prod central banks to cut interest rates further – the Feb and ECB meet today, and the RBI meets tomorrow. Indications, from Markit, are similar:

"Manufacturing activity lost momentum again in April,
with output growth slowing further on the back of a
deceleration in domestic orders and continued power
outages. Export orders, on the other hand, picked up.
Encouragingly, input and output price inflation eased.
With the growth momentum slowing and inflation
receding, the RBI is likely to cut the policy rate this week.”

Interesting times indeed!

India PMI Falls to 54.8, Growth Pace Declines

No Comments » Written on March 6th, 2013 by
Categories: PMI

The HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) comes in at 54.8, with the service part of the index slowing down while the manufacturing pace increased.

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A number above 50 is still expansion but at a slower pace than earlier. Overall, the problem is that input price inflation continues to hurt.

I believe we should see slowing service output impact wages, and then, consumption. Coupled with inflation this is leading to stagflation in the economy. A rise in the stock markets might only be unbridled optimism, since these are macro headwinds which impact the economy in the longer term.

January PMI Continues Expansion; Services Jump

No Comments » Written on February 6th, 2013 by
Categories: PMI

The HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was at 56.3 in Jan 2013, indicating continuing expansion. The Index is based on both Manufacturing and Services inputs. The Manufacturing part the index expanded slower at 53.2 (from 54.7 in Dec), while the services part accelerated faster at 57.5 (from 55.6 in Dec).

 

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According to the release:

  • New (service) orders growth in the private sector at 11 month high 
  • Business activity in the service sector expands at fastest rate in 12 months
  • Private sector employment increases for eleventh month running

I wonder why I’m seeing things totally opposite. Recruitment’s down, orders are running lower. But I don’t have a formal survey.