PersonalFinance

Can You Afford To Lose Your Job?

5 comments Written on November 15th, 2011 by
Categories: PersonalFinance

Subra from Subramoney.com talks about a tough situation with a person he knows:

He bought a house in Navi Mumbai for about Rs. 80 Lakhs, – of this about Rs. 55 lakhs was funded by a loan from the State Bank of India. Over the last 4 years he had paid a lot of interest, but the principal outstanding was still Rs. 52 lakhs.

He was also doing some SIPs which had seen an amount of Rs. 33 lakhs, but now in this market was worth Rs. 30 lakhs – not too bad, but the IRR was not too great. He does not have any debt investments except his LIC endowment policies – and all the policies are together worth Rs. 30 lakhs.

So far fine. He just lost his job with effect from December, 2011 or Jan 2012…..

He will have to find a new job, NOW and immediately.

What is at stake?

Household expenses (including children’s school fees) …….Rs. 100,000

EMI                                                         Rs. 52,000

His needs are as follows:

Rs. 1.5L x 12 = Rs. 18L – assuming he gets a job in 6 months, he will need Rs. 9 L.

The comments are interesting – asking him to sell his house, or to reduce his expenses and so on.

The main takeaway to me is: Can you afford to lose your job?

No one likes the answer and everyone thinks they’ll manage somehow. After all, one has a degree or experience or friends or close contacts like Dr. Vijay Mallya (“Viju, we call him”). But there are moments – too often to be an outlier – when a job loss comes and hurts everyone. I have some idea how it feels because being an entrepreneur can be equivalent to joblessness, in the sense that you don’t get a salary. I have fired myself – twice – and honestly I love me for it, no regrets.

I ask you to imagine, for a moment, what it would be like.

  • Your company has a huge problem – let’s just say some of its biggest customers went bust in some kind of market carnage. You’ve been asked to leave, with the general statement that “it’s not you, it’s the market”.
  • At first, you’re shocked. No one fires me. You wonder what you’ll say to other people. You justify it initially with the “I hated it anyway” excuse, which is probably quite true. But after a drink you admit it was on the cards. (hardly anyone ever gets fired that didn’t know it was coming)
  • Then you realize you have no idea what you spend, and how much you’ve saved. You gather together all of those statements and excel sheets and severance packages and take a good hard look.
  • Do you like what you see?

What have you done, to prepare for a job loss? How do you handle, specifically:

  • Stuff you absolutely can’t do without, like children’s school fees, food, rent/EMI for the 6 months it will take you to find a job.
  • Will you cut expenses? To the extent of dramatically changing lifestyle? (Like selling your car and taking public transport instead)
  • Given the emotional damage you’ve had, can you take a holiday? or are you leveraged to the point that even a month of no income will create a crisis?
  • How many months can you survive?

I’ll do a follow up post.

Inflation Adjusted Investment

1 Comment » Written on August 2nd, 2010 by
Categories: PersonalFinance, Retirement

Manish has an excellent article on Jago Investor: How Inflation eats your money. What I was thinking – yes, you could save a constant amount today to try and reach an inflated adjusted goal tomorrow. Like in Manish’s article, he talks about Ajay who needs to meet a 20 year goal to plan for his daughter’s education, which would cost 4 lakhs today, but 8% inflation would cost him Rs. 18.64 lakh after 20 years.

That will take a monthly investment of Rs. 2,046 per month, he says, assuming you can get a 12% return per year.

But if Ajay starts after 10 years, he’ll have to invest Rs. 8,400 per month. Much higher, you think? Yet, with 8% inflation, that is worth just 3,890 worth of today’s money. Not quite as much higher – and probably just as affordable.

But then, you are likely to get salary hikes, at least to the same level as inflation. If you don’t, you’re retired – in which case you’re not saving. So let’s assume that you save a constant percentage of your income – even though nowadays, you save a much higher percentage of your salary as you grow older. So the amount you save per month increases every year, by about 8%, the inflation rate you assume your expenses grow by.

That means to achieve this goal of 18.64 lakhs in 20 years, with an average increase per year of 8%, you need to invest just Rs. 1,100 per month.

And then you may decide that heck, I’ll pay in only for 10 years, and let the funds grow for the remaining 10 years. For that, you only need Rs. 1,826 per month.

Your burden increases every year, but so does inflation, and in that sense, your income. The question, rightfully, is: how can you calculate the total money you need to invest for a certain goal, with an “inflation linked investment” pattern? Stay tuned, I’ll post a calculator soon.

Reader Comment: PPF Interest Calculation

5 comments Written on January 21st, 2010 by
Categories: PersonalFinance

There was a doubt from a commenter:

One question regarding PPF.
http://www.rediff.com/getahead/2005/may/06ppf.htm

Please read "How to make it work to your benefit."
What they are saying is that interest is calculated only in the month of March. I find it very surprising if that is the case. And I typically put 70k in April itself so am I effectively losing money?

From the PPF Rules:

Interest - Interest at the rate , notified by the Central Government in
official gazette from time to time, shall be allowed for calendar month on the
lowest balance at credit of an account between the close of the fifth day and
the end of the month and shall be credited to the account at the end of each
year.

Meaning- the interest is calculated for every month. It’s only credited at the end of each year. So if you put in Rs. 5000 on the first of every month, the interest calculation will be:

April: Principal of Rs. 5,000 
May: Principal of Rs. 10,000
June: Principal of Rs. 15,000

and so on. The funda is that the interest in April will not apply as principal for May. Only next March, the entire interest for the year is calculated, and then is applicable for the principal starting the next April.

Sticky: Shenoy’s Investment Fundas

28 comments Written on October 17th, 2007 by
Categories: Futures, Gold, Insurance, MutualFunds, Options, PersonalFinance, RealEstate, Stocks, ULIP

This post contains an organised series of links to my blog posts about investing. I hope to write more as we go along, and update this post constantly. This "book" should help you learn about Investment avenues in India, and where to go.

If you want me to write on something specific, send me a comment (at the bottom of this post)

 

As usual, I request and appreciate suggestions and comments.

Birla Sun Life Tax Relief 96 – beware of dividend pushers!

9 comments Written on January 11th, 2007 by
Categories: MutualFunds, PersonalFinance
A number of mutual fund distributors and advisors are hard-selling Birla Sun Life's Tax Relief 96 scheme, saying that they will give 1000% dividend in the next four months! Check out one blogger who has mentioned it, and innumerable forums in Orkut and Online groups that peddle this information.

Beware of such dividend pushers. Let me tell you what is good and what is bad about this situation.

What are they pushing?
That this mutual fund will pay out Rs. 100 (1000% of the face value of Rs. 10) as dividend. The NAV on December 1 was about Rs. 194, which, after the dividend would come down to Rs. 94 or so. But the dividend was not a one-shot dividend: It would be given over four months. 1st 250% was in december, and then 250% over Jan, Feb and March 2007.

Promptly, Birla Sun Life announced a 250% dividend on December 4, 2006. The record date was December 8, so you could purchase the fund till that date and receive the dividend.

Now why is it supposedly a good buy?
Because if you need to save tax under section 80C, you can lock in Rs. 100,000 in a tax saving mutual fund for three years. To many people, this is a lot of money to keep locked in.

So if you invest Rs. 100,000 at an NAV of Rs. 194, and get back Rs. 100 as dividend, you are technically getting back Rs. 50,000, and enjoying the tax benefits on the full 100,000. That is good stuff, isn't it?

So how does the distributor benefit?
Simply by getting more commissions. Firstly funds offer commissions on the money invested (2.25%) and then they pay the distributor on every year that the money stays with them (minimum three years, usually 0.5% or so each year). Obviously, this is great news for distributors, so they will peddle this fund. The blog I mention even uses wrong mathematics, by assuming at the end that your initial investment stays the same, and you get dividends. The initial investment comes down by the amount of dividend paid, so net-net you are in the same position.

Why would Birla Sun Life do such a thing?
Before this announcement this scheme had only Rs. 59 cr. as assets. Now this is a very small amount, and fund managers get paid as a percentage of assets managed. Therefore the only solution to make more money is to increase the assets managed; So they can tap on the traditional Indian investor mentality of loving dividends regardless of what it means, and can announce such a scheme. In fact it has worked! From 59 Cr. on November 30, the fund size has grown to Rs. 194 cr. on December 31 - an increase of 134 crores!

Remember, making money is not at all a bad thing, and I encourage them to do so. In fact this scheme has certain good things about it which I will mention later. But there are some very bad things too.

Firstly, announcing dividend for four months later is ILLEGAL. SEBI rules state that you can announce a dividend only five days before the record date. Birla Sun Life has never revealed that they will pay such a huge dividend - only their distributors have - so technically, they are absolved of any blame.

Secondly, for you the investor, if you invest in this fund, you can never be sure that they will announce this dividend! If you are depending on the dividend to meet money requirements, you'll have to wait and hope and pray that they do make this announcement. Think about it, it's your own money and you are hoping and praying that they will give it to you. Not a good situation to be in.

Thirdly, dividends in mutual funds are not the same as dividends in stocks. Read my Introduction to mutual funds article to understand how dividends work. So advertising a fund as "great dividend" is no big deal, it's your own money they are giving back. Stocks on the other hand can give you money which is not factored into the price, so for stocks dividends do add value. Not so for funds.

Finally, the concept of 1000% dividend is ridiculous. You may think that this is 1000% of your money. It is not. It is 1000% of the face value, which is Rs. 10. The current price may be hugely different.

What is good about it?
Well, let's assume that they really do declare Rs. 100 as dividend. If you had invested before December 8, you'd get Rs. 100 back out of the Rs. 194 paid for the fund. That means you would have half your money back, but enjoy the full benefit of the 80C deduction. So let us say you have only invested Rs. 50,000 in 80C products, but have only Rs. 25,000 left. If you had invested here, you can borrow another Rs. 25,000 temporarily (from your friends or family), put it in this fund and by March you will get Rs. 25,000 money back and you can return it. But that rests on too much hope that they will surely declare the dividend and so on. Scary.

Also the remaining money is invested in the fund, right? So how is this fund? Is your money safe?

Birla took over this scheme from the erstwhile Alliance Mutual Fund. Therefore fund management has changed (in early 2005). In the last year, the fund has returned 31%, which is far lesser than the Sensex, but much better than most other tax saving funds. In fact, as of today Value Research Online's ranking check shows it as 3rd in the category for 1 year returns. So perhaps the management change has really helped, and I think your money will be in good hands.

So what do I do?
They have not yet announced any dividend for January. Let me ask you to only act when they announce a dividend, not earlier. You will get five days after that announcement (usually), to be able to buy - they will also announce the record date when they announce it.

If they announce a Rs 25 (250%) dividend in January, ignore it - do not buy. Current price is about Rs. 167, which will then fall to around Rs. 143 after the record date. Then in February, if they announce a 250% dividend, ignore again, do not buy. The NAV will go down to about Rs. 120. (Assuming there is no growth in the fund at all, for simplicity's sake)

Later in March, if they announce the last 250% dividend, then go ahead and purchase it. At a price of Rs. 120, you will get back Rs. 25, which means if you put in Rs. 100,000 you will get back Rs. 20,000. This is not as good as the distributors promised, but it is risk free, because you buy only after the last announcement and before the last record date.

But I wish Birla Mutual fund announced one big dividend, rather that four installments. It's stupid to do this four installment business, and very investor unfriendly.