Results

Reliance Q4 2012 Results in Charts

4 comments Written on April 23rd, 2012 by
Categories: Reliance, Results

Reliance Industries posted its results last weekend, and they weren't quite as good as the street imagined. Let me talk less and chart more.

(See also: Dec 2011 results in graphs)

Flat Revenues, 21% drop in net profit

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While revenues have flattened, margins have gone down considerably, as inflation seems to have hit their bottomline in a big way. And if you're wondering, the big impact is not high interest rates. (More on that later)

Profits contract everywhere

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Gas and Oil production continues to go down

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Well, the picture says it all.

Of course, this is a hugely regulated sector and Reliance has to sell its output at government mandated prices ($4.2 per BTU for gas, for instance). So if the international price is higher, Reliance doesn't have the incentive to try really hard to get much gas out. (Courtesy an interesting discussion with a friend today)

Gross Refining Margin Rises

Even with the bleak profit picture, refining margins grew.

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Petrochem production remains flat

The lowest margin business - petrochem - has seen flattening production with next to no rise.

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Cash is now higher than Debt

With a debt of 68,000 cr. (680 bn) and a cash hoard of over 70,000 cr. (700 bn), Reliance is debt-free if you look at things that way, but that is only for the "I-was-born-yesterday" kind of people. A company is only debt free if it has no debt. If Reliance is earning more from its cash than it pays on the debt, then that is arbitrage which honestly is what banks do and a bank will NEVER be called a debt-free business.

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There is a good chance that these loans are borrowings from abroad or long term bonds which can't be bought back easily. Also debt is useful to have if you can service it. Interest costs were about 768 cr. (7.68 bn) which isn't really quite that much. You shouldn't think of this as "debt-free", but more like "cash greater than debt", which clarifies valuation.

Overall, this is a disappointing result but the stock continues to stay strong at 740. They are buying back shares from the market  - upto Rs. 10,000 cr (Rs. 100 bn) at a ceiling price of Rs. 870 - of which they have now done about 400 cr. worth, and bought back 52 lakh shares (5.2 million shares). This might be the reason the stock held up, but we'll have to see how this pans out over time.

They've declared a dividend of Rs. 8.5 per share.

Not looking good, Reliance. But you've shown in the past that it's not a good thing to go against the behemoth that you are, will you do it again?

Disclosure: No positions.

Chart: Infy Result Impact, Worst in 5 Years

5 comments Written on April 13th, 2012 by
Categories: ChartOfTheDay, Infosys, Results, Stocks

Infosys is a big player on results day, though mostly downwards, it turns out.

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With an underperformance this quarter (a drop in QoQ results) the fall wasn't surprising. But it is the worst in five years.

And in other good news, I have found a house in Bangalore, and hope to close the deal in a couple days. Hopefully, I'll be writing from my new place next week. (Renting. I can't afford to buy!)

Reliance: Dec 2011 Result in Graphs

3 comments Written on January 20th, 2012 by
Categories: Dec2011, Reliance

Reliance Results in Graphs. I think this is the best way to view these things.

Revenues are up, Profits are down.

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Read the rest of this entry »

PIRHEALTH Q2 At 52.93 cr.

5 comments Written on October 23rd, 2011 by
Categories: PIRHEALTH, Results, Sep2011

Piramal Healthcare announced Q2 results and they’ve made about Rs. 53 cr. in profits in the quarter.

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Click for a larger image. All amounts in Lakhs except EPS and Face Value.

I know, hardly anyone gives you eight or nine quarters but honestly that’s how you need to look at a business (quarterly) or longer term (yearly – many years).

The Cash

In Q2 last year they got a fantastic payout of 16,000 cr. for the business they sold to Abbott, so we can’t easily compare results.The operational profit was 51 cr, versus a 57 cr. loss last year. They have a net interest earning of 30 cr. and nearly 33% tax rate. Interest seems awfully small for a portfolio of over 10,000 cr. now – but it could be deployed in debt funds (rather than fixed deposits) which means they get it as a lumpsum if they exit. Of concern is the balance sheet though, which shows:

a) Investments: 3,917 cr.
b) Other current assets: 6110 cr.
c) Cash and bank: 735 cr.

This is scary because all that money needs to either be in Fixed Deposits (FDs) – which one might call “other current assets”. But in that case interest income should be huge: At 9% rates, the minimum they’ll earn in a quarter is Rs. 130 cr. – they earned just 50 cr. And if it’s in short term debt funds, the figure should show in “investments”. This needs further investigation.

Update: I was mistaken about 10,000 cr. in cash. They are getting about 1850 cr. per year, but they got an upfront amount of 10,000 cr. Since they've got one tranche, the amounts they have is:

Upfront: 10,000 cr.
1st Tranche: 1850 cr.
Vodafone deal: (2900 cr)
Buyback: (2500 cr.)
Taxes: (3700 cr.)
Indiareit buy + dividend payout : (400 cr.)

That should leave 2,500 cr. or whereabouts with them, for which the quarterly interest will be just Rs. 50 cr or so, at 9% an annum. So that bit has been clarified.

Thanks to sharp reader Jagadees for the heads up!

On the business front

They grew pharma solutions (CRAMS) to 305 cr. from 230 cr., (32%) the critical care business to 92 cr. from 64 cr. (64%), and OTC/Opth products to 57 cr from 36 (59%)  Overall

But most of the profit is from forex gains, which is a gain of Rs. 103 cr.in the quarter, due to receivables from Abbott. Abbott is paying them around 1,900 cr. per year (they’ve got one). That means the operational business is largely loss making to the extent of about 50 cr.

Taxes are 33% – the highest in 8 or 9 quarters. They’ll buy losses soon, so that will taper down. But they’ve taken on more debt (why?) scaling up to 1090 cr. from March’s 757 cr.

Prospects

They will soon merge the R&D division of Piramal Life Sciences, which is also loss making, but should improve prospects for deploying cash in the future. They’ve bought about 5% in Vodafone and are making forays into financial services, on which I don’t currently have an opinion. They have received approval to sell Sevoflurane (which is for general anaesthesia in surgeries) in Europe – note that this may not be a huge market.

With that they still have a EPS of 3.1 and a TTM EPS of about Rs. 20 – putting the share at Rs. 355 at a P/E of about 18. But remember they own cash of around 10,000 cr. which is more than Rs. 500 per share, apart from the business itself.

Disclosure: I own shares. The share’s at 350 (my purchase price is around 400) and I was hoping to buy more, but I’m not too impressed with these results. There are areas where I am concerned about transparency and figures don’t match between their own presentations and what they send to exchanges.

HDFCBANK Q2 Through the Roof, 30% EPS Growth

1 Comment » Written on October 19th, 2011 by
Categories: HDFCBANK, Results, Sep2011

In another magnificent display HDFC Bank takes its EPS up 30% in what others would call a tough environment.

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The stock was up 3% on a very smart rally in the markets, and ended at Rs. 492, for a P/E of around 26.

Net NPAs are just 0.2% of assets, they say, at Rs. 355 cr. And their Capital Adequacy is at 16.5%, a decent number. Most profits (957 cr.) came in from retail banking (lending plus fees minus deposit costs, plus any credit card numbers I guess) Wholesale banking adding 670 cr. and treasury pitched in with 39 cr. (though higher than the 18 cr. last quarter and a loss of 52 cr. last year).

There’s not much about losses from loans out there; so interest rate increases are getting passed on (I suppose). There are no relevant subsidiaries (HDFC Mutual fund and Insurance are owned by HDFC Bank’s parent, HDFC Limited). Will add more to this post after them interviews.

TCS Q2 EPS Up just 6%, Revenues up 25%

1 Comment » Written on October 19th, 2011 by
Categories: Results, Sep2011, TCS

TCS Results yesterday were not spectacular and the stock went down more than 8%. A quick look at the financials:

TCS Financials

In comparison with Infosys, TCS has a higher revenue growth curve while profits have fallen:

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And then, their EPS Growth

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TCS which was doing so much better till the last quarter, has noticably dipped below Infy.

The TCS stock at 1040 is at a 21 P/E, which is about the same you pay for an Infosys at 2723 (P/E of 21.5).

(See the Infy result analysis – a far more detailed one)

Hero MotoCorp Q2 EPS up 19%

No Comments » Written on October 19th, 2011 by
Categories: HeroHonda, Results, Sep2011

Hero MotoCorp (earlier Hero Honda) has announced decent results with a revenue growth of 28%, and EPS growth of 19.39%.

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After a slowdown of sorts in the 2010 timeframe, growth has come back. The company is reasonably valued – at the price of Rs. 2085, they get a  P/E of 20, which is close to their EPS growth. The trailing twelve month (TTM) EPS hasn’t grown much though, a matter of concern.

Disclosure: I have long positions.

Reliance Q2 Results: Good, Not Great

8 comments Written on October 16th, 2011 by
Categories: Reliance, Results, Sep2011

After a reasonable performance by Infosys, Reliance has provided a decent set of numbers. Reliance has the highest weight of any stock in both the Sensex and the Nifty.

I’ll do this through a lot of charts. Not only is text less intuitive, the graphs provide a far better frame of reference.

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