MutualFunds

Horrendous Performance of IDFC Infra Fund

3 comments Written on April 3rd, 2013 by
Categories: MutualFunds

I had featured a “new fund offer'” by IDFC AMC, for it’s IDFC Infra Fund on this blog two years ago and I’m honestly very embarrassed to note its terrible performance over this period. It was the worst performing fund in its category in 2012, and it has done worse than the category average, and indeed, even the CNX Infra Index. From Value Research:

 

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If you look at the bar chart above, you can see that it has underperformed the category on the way up, and done worse on the way down. Overall returns are substandard.

From Moneycontrol:

image

The fund hasn’t beaten CNX Infra in any timeframe, expect the 2 year one (where the infra index went down 1% more than this fund)

It is true that infra stocks have taken a beating, but it is also true that this fund, even with a star fund manager like Kenneth Andrade, has grossly underperfomed.

In the post I made, I did take some positions on infra stocks like Elecon Engineering, which have fallen substantially – luckily, I was able to exit with a 15% stop loss (the stock has fallen over 50%).

In the comments, many people mentioned that it’s a great time to buy infra stocks (though I had maintained that the worst was yet to come). It was not a great time to buy infra stocks, apparently. Now may sound like an even better time to get in but here’s my deal: I won’t. I have to wait till prices show strength. Money can be made by betting on bottoms, but there is no “trigger” for these stocks to move up – government spending will need to be controlled, the economy has starting its down move, and infra stocks are hugely overleveraged (so every delay costs them in bank interest). If you’re going to be a vulture, at least wait for them to die.

However, what I have learnt is:

  • Sector funds, even when run by star managers, can be a sheer waste of time and money.
  • Do not review NFOs just because the fund management team did a phone call with you.

SEBI Makes Mutual Funds Show Risk in Colours

6 comments Written on March 19th, 2013 by
Categories: MutualFunds, SEBI

SEBI has gone from seeing things in black-and-white to now, colour-coded mutual funds. It has, in a circular, asked all mutual funds to colour code their funds blue, yellow or brown according to their risk levels (low, medium or high respectively).

This is a great source of revenue for all the printers that currently print their brochures, memorandums and information booklets. This is not a good day for trees.

Much as I may joke, a concept like this can actually be useful. Once, while filling tax returns, the forms were colour coded, and it made life very easy for all of us. Individuals got one colour, companies another, those with business income in a proprietorship yet another, etc. But that made a difference only since the ENTIRE form was that colour. I doubt having a little square box will make a meaningful difference.

All funds should have a single box with three attributes:

  • long term growth or short term income (or any other combination of the term/goal)
  • objective of the fund like we intend to mortgage your children to pay for our beer, or more realistically “ investment in equity and equity-related securities including equity derivatives of
    top 200 companies by market capitalisation.”
  • The “risk” with the colour box (Low risk, Medium Risk, High Risk) )

My notes:

  • The products will still be mislabelled. Is an FMP that invests in short term corporate debt low or high risk?

  • Investors understand risk in mutual funds. In fact they overestimate it. People tell me mutual funds have high risk, even those that invest in short term g-secs, the lowest risk product available) So I’m not sure who will benefit.

  • I would recommend that such labelling be carried over to all fin products. Insurance, bank deposits and even ETFs (on their web pages). What’s the point of doing this only for Mutual funds?

  • Who prints the stationery really? Are they public?

STT Gets Slashed, CTT Comes In

1 Comment » Written on February 28th, 2013 by
Categories: Budget2013, MutualFunds

Securities Transaction Tax (STT) is something traders seemed to expect would go away (Read my last post about why I thought it would not be taken out), and it has indeed been reduced. From the finance memorandum:

image

Mutual Fund STT Cut

STT for Delivery transactions – that is, where you purchase but do not sell intraday – of an equity mutual fund , bought on a stock exchange (so, an Exchange Traded Fund, effectively) – is currently 0.1% each way (buying and selling).

From June 1, you will not pay STT for purchasing Equity ETFs. And you’ll pay just 0.001% for selling them.

What about regular equity mutual funds (not sold on the exchange)? The STT has been cut from 25 basis points (0.25%) to a miniscule 0.001%.

Why even that? Because as I have argued in a detailed post, taking it to zero means that long term capital gains taxes will apply – and that is not desirable.

Futures STT cut to 1 basis point

STT for futures was 0.017%, or Rs. 1,700 per crore. For a single Nifty Lot, that worked out to Rs. 51 per lot (at Nifty of 6,000). That will now come down to Rs. 30 per lot at 0.01%. (Only on the sell side)

Commodity Derivatives Taxed

The FM has introduced a Commodities Transaction Tax (CTT) at 0.01% of the total contract value, for all non-agricultural commodities. A contract to buy 100 grams of gold (costing Rs. 2.8 lakh today) will pay Rs. 28 in taxes (paid by the seller).

This can be a bummer, since most contracts are highly levered (you pay a margin of just Rs. 8,000 or so per contract) and therefore people make trades that get them Rs. 100-200 per contract in profit. Of that, this CTT is a significant number.

Dividend Distribution Tax on Debt Mutual Funds Hiked to 25%

14 comments Written on February 28th, 2013 by
Categories: Budget2013, Debt, IncomeTax, MutualFunds

From 1 June 2013, any dividends paid out by debt mutual funds to individuals will have to deduct Dividend Distribution Tax (DDT) of 25%, regardless of the type of scheme. Equity mutual funds (>65% in equity shares) will not pay such a DDT, as earlier.

As of now, non equity mutual funds have to pay the following Dividend Distribution Tax when paying out:

 

Individual or HUFNon-individual

Type of Fund

Money Market /Liquid Fund

25%

30%

All other non-equity Funds

12.5%

30%

The 12.5% is now being changed to 25%.

This dividend is not taxed in the hands of the fundholder, but then the NAV will come down that much. For example if I hold a fund with an NAV of Rs. 11, and it decides to pay out Rs. 1 per unit as dividend, it will pay a DDT of Rs. 0.25 and the NAV will fall down to Rs. 9.75. Effectively, that tax is paid by you.

The relevant extract in the memorandum is:

Under the existing provisions of section 115R any amount of income distributed by the specified company or a Mutual Fund to its unit holders is chargeable to additional income-tax. In case of any distribution made by a fund other than equity oriented fund to a person who is not an individual and HUF, the rate of tax is 30% whereas in case of distribution to an individual or an HUF it is 12.5% or 25% depending on the nature of the fund.

In order to provide uniform taxation for all types of funds, other than equity oriented fund, it is proposed to increase the rate of tax on distributed income from 12.5% to 25% in all cases where distribution is made to an individual or a HUF.

This is a bummer for all those that have bought the dividend option of any non-equity fund, including:

  • Gilt Funds
  • Bond Funds
  • Income funds
  • Balanced funds (where equity is less than 65%)
  • Fund of Funds
  • Gold Funds

Solution: Buy the Growth option instead. You can set up a systematic withdrawal plan (SWP) that simulates dividends, and not have to pay this tax in whatever form. Since the change in DDT applies from 1 June 2013, so you have the time to now move your debt investments to the growth option.

Note: Uma notes that you may actually pay more - there's a 10% surcharge that applies, so the real tax including cess is a little above 28%. However a switch to growth option may involve an exit load (if you shift before the exit load term). Also, if there are any capital gains, you will have to pay short or long term taxes on them.

An Exception: However if you are a non-resident investor and buy a mutual fund designated as an “infrastructure debt fund” (IDF) then the applicable tax is just 5%.

Note2: The above "exception" may not be true. After Uma's note, I checked the actual finance bill, it seems to say that a 5% tax will apply BEYOND the above distribution tax. 

They told us DDT was toxic. Now we know it applies to anything that forms that acronym.

Links: Direct Plans Win, Be-Sahara, ESOP Disclosures …

5 comments Written on February 14th, 2013 by
Categories: KFA, Links, MutualFunds

Links for today:

Direct plans garner 56% of new inflows in Jan, says ET. Out of 60,000 cr., of fresh investments, nearly 33,000 cr. has come into direct plans. This should happen, as corporates shift their debt investments into direct plans. Why? Because debt plans are seeing about 0.2% to 0.5% better performance by direct plans, and on a corpus of Rs. 10 crore, that translates to Rs. 2 to 5 lakh per year, a very reasonable sum of money.

Update 19/2/2013:  Reader Neerav says  Wealth Forum post points out that ET has issued a corrigendum, saying that there was an error in their data, mixing up both direct and regular flows. However, I couldn't find the admission on the ET site, so I'm keeping both the original link and this other post as is.

SEBI has attached assets of Subroto Roy and two Sahara Group companies that were supposed to refund more than 25,000 cr. to investors. After a long supreme court battle, when the SC allowed SEBI full reign to attach assets or bank accounts to recover the money, SEBI has acted and attached everything it knows, including properties, mutual fund holdings, bank accounts and equity holdings. This is a confident sign for governance – now they have to investigate properly and find if Sahara has been involved in fraud as well.

Zee has made a disclosure about what it’s ESOP trust will do – sell off the nearly 11,000 shares it holds. Remember that SEBI has barred ESOP trusts from buying from the market, and has asked for a disclosure of what they will do with existing holdings.

Kingfisher Airlines’ assets may only fetch Rs. 1,500 cr. out of the Rs. 7,500 cr. debt it owes. Oh, well.

Damodaran says $100 bills are hard to come by. A must read, HT @CupLord.

Mutual Fund Mis-Selling is now Fraud: SEBI

11 comments Written on December 15th, 2012 by
Categories: MutualFunds, SEBI

SEBI has made misselling a fraudulent practice by adding a clause into the "Prevention of Fraudulent and Unfair Trade Practices" Regulations, via a notification:

(s)  mis-selling of units of a mutual fund scheme;
Explanation.- For the purpose of this clause, "mis-selling" means sale of units of a        
mutual fund scheme by any person, directly or indirectly, by─ 
(i) making a false or misleading statement, or 
(ii) concealing or omitting material facts of the scheme, or
(iii)concealing the associated risk factors of the scheme, or
(iv) not taking reasonable care to ensure suitability of the scheme to the buyer.

At first glance this appears to be a far reaching addition because you can hardly prove (or disprove) such an allegation when it occurs. Did the agent conceal a material aspect of a scheme? How can you prove it if he said he did reveal it?

The last bit (ensuring suitability of the buyer) seems even more subjective, but I suppose it could be on a "reasonable effort" basis where you can only get rapped in a very extreme case.

Having gone through the rest of the "fraudulent" practices, it seems we do have a framework of subjectivity. For example:

(b) dealing in a security not intended to effect transfer of beneficial ownership but
intended to operate only as a device to inflate, depress or cause fluctuations in
the price of such security for wrongful gain or avoidance of loss;

You could easily state that most intraday "strategies" of a large size will qualify. However I believe the framework is subjective because it needs to be so: given the range of appeals available (SAT, courts) it is better to have a law that is broad and subjective, rather than create a tight and restricted rule which the big and bad jokers will easily find a way around.

So overall, I don't find it such a bad deal to not have a strict definition of what misselling is. What I would like to see, however, is that SEBI investigates cases, and has HUGE penalties on extreme forms of fraud of any sort, including jail time.

Today, fraudsters get away with small fines and a small period of a ban on trading. That should not be the case. If we want to deter other people from a crime, the punishment should be huge and visible. That means when they catch the big frauds, those people need to go to prison. We need to see people banned for life from the markets. We need to see fines that are so heavy they will leave the fraudsters with nothing - I mean, for a fraud of Rs. 100 cr. we should see fines of Rs. 500 cr. as punitive damages.

In this respect, if a bank is found to be selling equity mutual funds to old women who come in looking for a deposit, I think the bank should be fined a minimum of Rs. 10 cr. as a deterrent. Banks seem to have the most serious offences of misselling agents who pose as "relationship managers".

Misselling may be provable only in an extreme case, and with respect to mutual fund selling I think it's difficult to prove either side. Online players need to be careful; they must provide all information available (risk factors etc.) and have some defence available to state that they tried to provide "suitable" products for a buyer. For others, agents have to be careful to reveal such information pro-actively.

I don't believe this regulation changes much: misselling in mutual funds has been cut down since SEBI removed entry loads and the new offer frenzy died. But I would welcome something similar in insurance and banking.

SEBI Notes: MFs, Direct Investing, Brokerage Caps

4 comments Written on August 26th, 2012 by
Categories: MutualFunds, SEBI

In the latest SEBI board meeting, a few norms have been discussed that will change the world of mutual funds and personal advise. Note that the actual circulars to implement these changes will follow. (I waited a week, then I decided this post had to be made) A few points that make the grade:

Mutual Funds To Have More Flexible Expense Ratios

Asset Management Companies (AMCs) have complained that they are restricted in how they can use their expense ratios. SEBI has now allowed "total fungibility" in such expenses; only the total number can't be greater than 2.5%. Earlier they had fees of about 1.25%, other charge

And it *can* be greater than 2.5%. Upto another 0.30% is allowed if funds flow in from beyond the top 15 cities. Note that this doesn't mean expenses will go to 2.8% - if funds have to remain competitive they must not load the expenses too much; so they will likely still stay around the 2% level which they currently are.

There is a problem - in that the top 15 cities account for over 85% of assets in the MF industry. But it's further skewed than that. Nearly 45% comes from Mumbai, and more 70% comes from Mumbai and Delhi.

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Further, the top 15 cities keep changing every quarter. Gurgaon was #16 in terms of total AUMs in the Jun 2012 quarter. However, one quarter earlier, it was 14th. I wonder how these things get taken care of. In the 6-monthly disclosures, AMCs need to mention what they are doing to broaden geographical penetration.

Finally, Any service tax charged to the AMC for the scheme was borne by it. Now that can be transferred to the scheme (meaning, investors will pay).

Exit Loads to be Ploughed Back

If you exit a fund early, you may be charged an exit load (usually 1% in equity funds within a year, lesser in debt funds). This money was used by the AMC however they wanted; for paying distributors commissions (an upfront commission could get adjusted this way) or for extra fees.

Now, such loads must be credited back to the scheme. So as an existing investor you will benefit when other people leave early! Bad for the AMC and for agents - they will get compensated lesser.

The Lower Expense Ratio Plan - Direct

All plans of the same scheme (Institutional/Retail etc) will now have the same expense ratios. (So there's no lower expense ratio for institutional etc.) But there's one difference: DIRECT plans - where there are no distributors - can be created with lower expense ratios.

This makes sense. Where an investment is directly done by the investor - either by studying the market himself or after following advise or buying online - there is no need to compensate a distributor at all. Agents in equity funds get upto 0.5% per year as "trailing" commissions - if you consider that you make 10% a year, Rs. 500,000 today will grow to Rs. 25.93 lakhs in ten years. At a lower 0.95% per year, you will make 24.78 lakhs - a difference of about 1.15 lakh.

Distributors are crying hoarse that this will hurt their business as investors will choose to go direct. And that this does not benefit the industry. I strongly disagree. Firstly, most distributors - even those I have interacted with - provide very little value addition beyond the initial transaction. They take the cheques, fill the forms and might call you once a year. For that, you don't pay them 0.5% a year. Some say they provide advice - but they should charge separately for that advice, and this is the concept of why entry loads were removed in the first place. And if they do provide advice that is of at least some value to an investor, the investor should be happy to choose a "non-direct" scheme with slightly higher charges. Come on - if the value you provide gives no perceptible benefit to the investor, then you should not be compensated in an underhand way through higher expense ratios and trailing fees.

Second, there is an obvious benefit to the industry. Most of the corporate money into liquid and debt funds is placed directly with fund houses. Boards will likely dictate that money goes only into direct-only schemes. Of the total 6.89 trillion rupees (689,000 cr.) in mutual funds as of Jun 2012, more than 4.7 trillion (68%) is in income and debt funds; and corporates account for 43% of mutual fund assets. If you consider Rs. 2 trillion on which just 0.1% trail loads are paid which can move into a DIRECT scheme, that's a saving of Rs. 200 cr. Most of this money, today, goes into the pockets of large banks who are distributors. 

The other benefit is that you have lesser issues with direct schemes - that is, investors can't complain that distributors misled them or such.

What should happen now is that to make things easier, CAMS and Karvy should come up with a single customer login/password so they can buy any fund directly. That will make things really simple. (And then, most money seems to come from the top few cities, which can easily use the internet and migrate to direct).

Anyhow, this is a sour point for distributors (who will lose the argument since it's good for investors) and for AMCs who will now have to directly service customers.

Brokerage Capped at 12 bps and 5 bps

Brokers will be unhappy. From earlier charges of 0.20% (20 bps), mutual funds can't pay more than 12 bps (0.12%) for stock transactions and 5 bps (0.05%) for derivatives.

Regulated Advisors

People who provide financial advise for a fee will have to go through registration and provide information to SEBI. The regulations aren't yet out (there were drafts earlier) but it seems like people will have to prove they are capable of providing advice, track their customers etc. Such people cannot get paid from Mutual Funds (for trail fees etc.)

There are exemptions - people who give free advice in a broad media (so this blog author will be exempt), stock brokers, AMFI agents (who don't charge a fee for advice), insurance agents etc.

Other Changes

  • AMFI Fees for distributors will be reduced
  • Upto 20,000 investments in cash will be allowed
  • IPOs can have less than 20% owned by promoters, if the rest is contributed by VCs or PE funds.
  • A new format of disclosure like the 20F form by SEC will be created. This is great - the layer of disclosure in 20Fs is much much more than currently given.
  • Non Retail investors can't withdraw or change their bids in an IPO. Ooh.
  • ESOPs can't buy shares in the market. (See My Article)

Making Sense of Dividend Announcements

6 comments Written on July 9th, 2012 by
Categories: MutualFunds, Stocks, Yahoo

I write at Yahoo: Making Sense of Dividend Announcements:

"1860% dividend announced", goes the headline. You're excited. But the question isn't, "Where do I sign?", but "1860% is great, but a percentage of what?"

The number is a percentage of "face value" which is as relevant today as a rotary-dial telephone. When a company is created, the founders distribute the initial capital into shares. A company started with Rs. 100,000 could be split into 10,000 shares of Rs. 10 each (the "face value" per share).

This company can, over time, earn enormous profits without any further capital requirements. Or, it might borrow money from a bank to fuel expansion and as it profits from growth. The capital could remain unchanged, with the original shares changing hands in a stock market. If the company grows to earn, say, Rs. 10 crore (Rs. 100 million) in profits, and decides to distribute half of it as profit, what happens?

You have a distribution of Rs. 5 crore (50 million) divided over 10,000 shares, or a dividend of Rs. 5,000 per share. The "face value" is still Rs. 10. So this is, effectively, a 50,000% dividend.

But the face value is irrelevant if you bought a share at Rs. 100,000 per share; for you, it's a 5% dividend! The "50,000%" number has no significance.

Most companies insist — and some say there is a rule for it — on providing dividends as a percentage of face value. Mutual funds are mandated to provide both the value of dividend they offer (rupees per unit) and the percentage of face value which is usually Rs. 10.

For listed companies, a better way to represent dividend is the "yield" — or the percentage of the stock price). But there is a practical problem: the dividend is proposed (and announced) as a number per share, by the board, and approved at a general shareholder meeting a couple months later. And then, it takes another few weeks to actually pay out the money. In this time, the share price could have moved substantially away from the time when it was first announced. A Rs. 10 dividend on a stock priced at Rs. 500 is a 2% yield, but if the price moves down to Rs. 200 due to a global crisis before the dividend is paid, the yield is actually 10%.

The other problem is that face values are different. Some companies have a face value of Rs. 100, others "split" their face value down to Rs. 2 or Rs. 1. You have no idea what a "170%" dividend will mean if you don't know what the face value is.

Some companies issue bonus shares, a process of converting retained earnings into share capital. So a 1:1 bonus will effectively double the number of shares in existence (each shareholder gets to double his holding). But since it's the same company whose profit is now being distributed over a larger number of shares, the market price per share will go to half. If the company paid "100% of face value" as dividend earlier, it might only pay "50% of face value" today — yet, a shareholder will get the same amount!

The simplest way to represent a dividend is to state what percentage of profit is being paid out. A company making Rs. 10 per share as a profit could pay out Rs. 2 as dividend — the dividend distribution percentage is thus 20%. Even this has a disadvantage; since a company can pay dividend from both current and past profits, it might just turn out that some companies pay out 170% of their annual profits, which might confuse investors. (How do you pay out more than you earn?) But it is substantially better than the current "of-face-value" method.

Face value has lost relevance as companies in India have grown without the need to add more capital, and retained most of their earnings for future expansion. Paying out dividends means an extra dividend distribution tax, so companies will retain more profit back. Most times you won't even know what the face value of a stock is — for instance, Infosys, which trades at a price of Rs. 2,500, has a face value of Rs. 5, while Reliance Industries (which trades at Rs. 735) has a face value of Rs. 10.

If you'd still like to chase a high number, Hero MotoCorp has just proposed a dividend of 2,250%. What that means: It's a Rs. 45 dividend on a share that's priced at Rs. 2,000+. You just can't take dividend announcements at face value.

ULIP Underperformance: Stunted By Guarantees

7 comments Written on June 11th, 2012 by
Categories: Insurance, MutualFunds, ULIP

Unit Linked Insurance Policies tend to be very complex and highly loaded with costs. But some policies have looked good in theory, but they turn out to be dud performers anyhow.

In an email conversation I was referred to an excellent analysis of ULIP costs by RRK which talked about how ULIP costs could actually be low. He used the analysis of an IDBI Federal Dreambuilder Plan, which offers just a first year allocation cost of 3%, and fund management charges of just 1.35%.

Over a 15 year period, the return on the policy beats the return on the mutual fund+Term plan method, according to RRK; the return on the ULIP comes to 30 lakhs while the MF+Term approach gives you just 28.5 lakhs.

(35 yr old, 10 lakh sum assured, 1 lakh per year premium, 15 year policy, 10% returns assumed).

In theory, awesome policy. With low allocation charges which apply only in year 1, the difference is that mutual funds charge an average of 2% as charges every year, and the ULIP In question had only a 1.35% charge. Over the long term, the difference works out to be a gerat

Sadly, the devil is in the details. The fund outperforms because of two “guaranteed” loyalty additions of 3.15% – one at the end of the first 10 years, and the other after 15 years. Without these guaranteed additions, the ULIP would underperform, giving just 28 lakhs after 10 years.

How does the guarantee work? Does IDBI Federal give money out of the goodness of their hearts?

This guarantee is available across most of their ULIPs. Which means that they must bake in the cost somewhere. The answer is: Fund Performance.

Let’s look at the IDBI Federal Equity Fund performance since inception, compared to HDFC Taxsaver and HDFC Top 200, two funds that aren’t the best today but are something that I have used as benchmarks over the last five years. (The IDBI Fund Starts 17-Mar-2008)

image

In the last four years:

HDFC Top 200: 53% (Annualized: 10.60%)

HDFC TaxSaver: 45% (Annualized: 9.25%)

IDBI ULIP’s Equity Growth Fund: 26% (Annualized: 5.7%)

The IDBI fund has underperformed by over 3% per year.

We assume that a ULIP fund and a mutual fund will perform at the same level – both after all invest in the same assets. But mutual funds have no such “guarantee”; does the guarantee hurt the performance of the fund?

The cost of this guarantee seems to be hidden inside the fund management strategy. If you assume that the ULIP will do about 2% lesser every year, then the net return, after 15 years is:

Term Plan Plus MF: Rs. 28.5 lakhs.

ULIP: Rs. 23.5 lakhs. About 5 lakhs lesser.

What’s the Point?

That ULIPs are terrible investment vehicles. But you know that.

That there are two kinds of costs: a) stated and b) hidden. Hidden costs are not just shrouded in complexity, they are invisible unless you do the kind of analysis I did above. And who has the time for that?

Needless Complexity

If you’re still here, I consider myself lucky. It’s very boring, complex and unnecessary. Why bother with “guaranteed” loyalty additions? How does an investor know that this gives you a small guarantee but takes away hugely from your return? Why should anyone bother investing in such a policy unless they are excel wizards with too much time on their hands?

If you don’t have the time, invest where the proposition is simple.