311, 2014

Nifty’s 4.5% Move in October takes 2014 returns to 32%, Best Year Since 2009

By |November 3rd, 2014|Categories: Charts, MonthlyMoves, Nifty|2 Comments

October went up a brilliant 4.5% on the indexes, taking the Nifty’s 2014 returns to 32%. The surge since Diwali has been over 500 points on an index that now promises to be the best year since 2009. The month had a number of trading holidays, including one for Maharashtra elections, but still, markets went up (mostly in the last 10 days). Japan’s QE announcement took markets up another 2% on the 31st, the last day of the month.

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2810, 2014

Chart: India’s Stock Index Does The Best YTD Performance In The World (Oct 2014)

By |October 28th, 2014|Categories: Charts, Nifty|Comments Off on Chart: India’s Stock Index Does The Best YTD Performance In The World (Oct 2014)

You could be bullish for India: it’s been doing well. In fact, in 2014, the returns on the index have been ludicrously oversized in comparison. The Nifty is really the only index that has a huge double digit return, among the big guys around the world. The US, even with all it’s new found growth, saw the S&P 500 up only 6% for the year.

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(This is each index, in its own local currency)

And India is […]

2710, 2014

Election Fever: Auto, Pharma, IT Stocks Outperform Nifty; Metal, Realty Stocks Underwhelm

By |October 27th, 2014|Categories: Charts, Nifty|Comments Off on Election Fever: Auto, Pharma, IT Stocks Outperform Nifty; Metal, Realty Stocks Underwhelm

The markets have seen quite some euphoria over the last few months. Since May this year, the Nifty has been hitting unprecedented levels, touching an all-time high of 8173.9 at the close of the day of 8th September.

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Ever since Election results came out in May, the markets seem to have taken very kindly to the mandate. The Sensex too saw an all-time high on the same day, hitting 27,354.99.

Since the Nifty is representative of all the industries put together, it would be interesting to see, sector-wise, which industries […]

1810, 2014

Inflation Ensures Nifty is Nowhere Close to All Time High In “Real” Terms

By |October 18th, 2014|Categories: Charts, Inflation, Nifty|4 Comments

You know how much inflation eats into your returns? This much: Adjusted for inflation, the Nifty is 10% lower than the highs we saw in 2008. Although the Nifty has moved 30% higher than the 2008 levels in “absolute” (i.e. not inflation adjusted terms). We take the Nifty (including the impact of reinvesting dividends) and show you how inflation has made all the difference:

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Turns out that despite the recent drop in Gold price, the best […]

1810, 2014

Nifty Snapshot: At 5% From Peak, We’re Not In A Correction Yet

By |October 18th, 2014|Categories: Charts, Nifty|Comments Off on Nifty Snapshot: At 5% From Peak, We’re Not In A Correction Yet

The Nifty continues to “correct”, although it did rise marginally today.  The recent Nifty “peak” about 8173 has come after a long ride up.

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(Click for a larger image)

This chart maps all the retracements that are 10% or more. You can see here that we haven’t had a 10% retracement in the last full year – and we have had at least one a year since 2007. It’s really a very non-volatile market.

The […]

2509, 2014

Premium: The “Crash” is Not Yet One. The Data Isn’t Yet Bad Enough.

By |September 25th, 2014|Categories: Nifty, Premium|Tags: |Comments Off on Premium: The “Crash” is Not Yet One. The Data Isn’t Yet Bad Enough.

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As we write this, the US Markets have fallen 1.5%, with the S&P going considerably below 2,000. The Indian stocks listed in the US markets too have fallen between 1% (IT) and 5% (ICICI Bank)

109, 2014

Monthly Moves: 4 Consecutive Wins as Nifty Moves 3% in Aug, 26% return in 2014

By |September 1st, 2014|Categories: Charts, MonthlyMoves, Nifty, Sensex|1 Comment

In another fantastic month, August gives us a 3% return on the index, which closed near 8,000 (Nifty). This is now four consecutive up-months.

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On the Sensex, the streak runs to 7 months, with only January showing a negative number.

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The indexes have moved 26% in 2014 till August. Such great times!

2508, 2014

Nifty EPS and P/E Chart: EPS Growth Dips to 10%

By |August 25th, 2014|Categories: Charts, Nifty|Comments Off on Nifty EPS and P/E Chart: EPS Growth Dips to 10%

Nifty EPS Growth drops suddenly to 10% in the last few days. The trailing 12 month P/E (non consolidated) is at 20. This kind of thing happens a lot; but it’s remarkable that for the last seven years, our P/E ratio never went below our EPS growth rate (trailing).

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Even the five year compounded growth rate on EPS is still at 11.4%, which is quite low considering these are the top companies in the country.

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1108, 2014

Adjusted for Inflation, Nifty Still 15% to 35% Below All Time Highs

By |August 11th, 2014|Categories: ChartOfTheDay, Charts, Nifty|Comments Off on Adjusted for Inflation, Nifty Still 15% to 35% Below All Time Highs

When you adjust the Nifty for inflation, you might see how high the Nifty really is in comparison with the past. That is, even with today’s Nifty value at all time highs, is it really an all time high if you considered the value of the rupee has fallen due to inflation?

Looking at the Nifty (with reinvestment of dividends) since 1999, we can use a single reference point and adjust all numbers for inflation. If we look at the numbers, both raw and adjusted, here’s what the graph looks like:

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3006, 2014

Monthly Moves: Nifty and Sensex do 5%, YTD Return Crosses 20%

By |June 30th, 2014|Categories: Charts, MonthlyMoves, Nifty|1 Comment

June turned out to be a pretty good month for markets. The Nifty went up 5.3%, and ended above 7600.

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This takes 2014 to a +20.7% year to June, the second best in the last 15.

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And the Sensex did pretty well too, with a +4.9% in Jun 2014

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1606, 2014

Lack of -4% Moves Makes For Calmest Nifty in 5 Years

By |June 16th, 2014|Categories: Charts, Nifty|2 Comments

How volatile markets were and how little they are today is visible on a graph of large moves. How many times has Nifty fallen 4% in a single day? 66 times.

How many times since 18th August 2009? Twice.

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There has been calm. And this is true of world markets.

The storm, though, is ahead of us, and when it comes, it will seem to be a “black” swan. But if you are a student of history, the volatility is just about waiting […]

1306, 2014

Two Events That “Shook” Markets but FIIs Bought 1100 cr. of Stocks Today

By |June 13th, 2014|Categories: Nifty|2 Comments

Two things have happened recently that have produced a small scare.

One, that Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, has said interest rates could rise sooner than markets expect. British rates are 0.5%. But they have a housing bubble going on, even as the economy is recovering. These point to the fact that rates will have to be increased as things continue to improve, and to avoid asset bubbles – and sooner than anticipated.

Second, that militants in Iraq are advancing dangerously, taking over entire towns […]

206, 2014

Sell in May and Go Away Except When It’s A Darn Good Year Already

By |June 2nd, 2014|Categories: Nifty|Comments Off on Sell in May and Go Away Except When It’s A Darn Good Year Already

The Nifty, Year to Date, till May has had the second best return since 1999, eclipsed only by the stellar return in 2009.

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Will it sustain?

In most earlier years that have seen more than 10% returns YTD in May, the momentum has sustained – 2009 ended up 40%. The years  1997 and 1999 ended up even higher than their May returns. 1996 was the outlier, starting at +20% in May and ending up -1%.

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206, 2014

Monthly Returns: Best Month of 2014 at 8% in May

By |June 2nd, 2014|Categories: MonthlySummary, Nifty|Comments Off on Monthly Returns: Best Month of 2014 at 8% in May

Great Election month on the Nifty. Nothing like 2009, of course, which has a 28% green number that might not be repeated in the near future. But still, 8% for the month, and a +14% number for the year.

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And on the Sensex too:

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