16 01, 2012

Back From Holiday, With Notes…

By | January 16th, 2012|Categories: Readings|2 Comments

Bangalore was fantastically refreshing, with mentionably better weather. Much  has happened in the last few days, so I’ll use this post to link-comment.

Europe was downgraded (WSJ) by S&P – France is no longer AAA, and Italy is BBB-, just above junk. Portugal is junk. Step back and think about this a bit: The US is no longer AAA, and their stock market, their bonds and their currency […]

19 12, 2011

Readings: Bank Risk, Carbon Credits, Kingfisher

By | December 19th, 2011|Categories: Readings|1 Comment

Nine Lakh Cr. stuck in risky sectors, says Firstpost. Even a 10% loss on that will hugely hurt bank capital, but the figure is exaggerated.

There is an enormous difference between a market opinion and a market position”, says Peter Brandt. A great post by an experienced trader. Lose your opinion before you lose your money; it’s silly to tell traders how they were wrong a month […]

13 12, 2011

We Need More Equity Investors: McKinsey

By | December 13th, 2011|Categories: Readings|3 Comments

The coming shortage of equity investors by the Economist, quoting a report by McKinsey. 80% of the world’s financial assets of $157 trillion are held in developed economies, where people are ageing. Pension funds are maturing and they withdraw from equities. Emerging market investors hold most of their assets in debt, very little in equity. The crash in recent years – 10 years of nothingness in the US, […]

9 12, 2011

Random Reads: The Big Fight, Social Media, UID Kaput?

By | December 9th, 2011|Categories: Readings|2 Comments

The Big Fight between Ma-Mu and John K about the demise of Taggle, the kamikaze (or not) act of Air Deccan, and how we should not do things. I think it’s good that we do proper post-mortems of companies without looking at the ego lifting parts of the pieces involved (“I said Air Deccan wouldn’t work”, “Not till after it was dead”, etc.)

The story is of […]

2 12, 2011

MV Chronicle: Pivot Points

By | December 2nd, 2011|Categories: MarketVision, Readings|Tags: |2 Comments

In last week’s MarketVision Chronicle, I wrote about Pivots, a useful technical level indicator. (Registration required, free)

Pivot Points

When you trade a market you sometimes have no basis for what the stock is supposed to be doing in the short term. An interesting way to look at levels on a chart is to look at points of support and resistance. We’ve seen trendlines and support lines, […]

19 10, 2011

MV Chronicle: Not about “More Winners Than Losers”

By | October 19th, 2011|Categories: MarketVision, Readings|Tags: |Comments Off on MV Chronicle: Not about “More Winners Than Losers”

In the MarketVision Chronicle, I speak about focussing on the right metric.

Registration required, free. You’ll get the newsletter on email once a week, and can opt-out as well.

It’s Not About "More Winners Than Losers"

As a trader, you need to understand what your goal is:
a)      Making more successful trades than losing ones.
b)      Making money […]

15 09, 2011

Rogue Trader Loses $2 Billion

By | September 15th, 2011|Categories: General, Readings|1 Comment

“Unauthorized” trading by a trader in London caused UBS, the large Swiss bank, to lose $2 bn .

UBS management aims to “get to the bottom of the matter as quickly as possible, and will spare no effort to establish exactly what has happened,” the bank’s group executive board, led by Chief Executive Officer Oswald Gruebel, said in a memo to employees today. “While […]

12 09, 2011

The Last Week in India: Sep 5-9 2011

By | September 12th, 2011|Categories: Readings, WeeklySummary, Yahoo|Tags: |1 Comment

I write at Yahoo about the previous week in Indian Business, in a commentary piece designed to entertain as much as inform:

The week of September 5 to 9 has been a week of high expectations but very disappointing delivery, much like everything else in the country, with the honorary exception of Delhi rains. People in Delhi overloaded web sites with mobile-phone photos of water and cars and trains, jammed till kingdom come, while people in Mumbai wondered what the outrage was about. Let us ignore this and turn to the world of business, markets and economy.

Headed by the suave Montek Singh Ahluwalia, the Planning Commission suggested that India build a $10 billion sovereign wealth fund, to invest in energy and mining assets abroad. Perhaps the thinking is that after the mismanagement of energy and mining assets in India, our government has mastered the art enough to mismanage such assets abroad as well.

On Tuesday,  a horrific blast in the Delhi High Court at the peak hour of 10 AM, killed 13, and injured many more while an outraged nation watched condemnation, excuse and promises from the government. Parliament shut itself down for the whole day in response, while the high court, the very place the blast had occurred, resumed work after two hours. […]

7 09, 2011

Readings: Farms, Prepayment Penalties, VC Movies

By | September 7th, 2011|Categories: Readings|Comments Off on Readings: Farms, Prepayment Penalties, VC Movies

30 08, 2011

Readings: Edible Oils, Real Indian Story, Italian Mints

By | August 30th, 2011|Categories: Readings|1 Comment

A few interesting things to read over the 2-day trading holiday:

Italian town printing its own currency to escape austerity (Reuters)

Nidhi Nath Srinivas on the edible oil industry (ET).

Read @moneybloke about KS Oils, which has fallen a magnificent 80% in the last year, from highs of Rs. 80 down to Rs. 10 today. (Disclosure: I went long at 32. I […]

27 08, 2011

Dan Ariely: Monkeys and Financial Advice

By | August 27th, 2011|Categories: Commentary, Readings|Tags: |1 Comment

Dan Ariely writes about financial behaviour: 

Typically, a financial adviser takes 1% of assets under management—annually!—to balance a portfolio, and makes investment decisions on the basis of our answers to two questions: (1) “How much of your current salary will you need in retirement?” (2) “What is your risk tolerance on, say, a 10-point scale?”

Frankly, I think highly trained monkeys […]

25 08, 2011

The Minus 4.5% Week: MV Chronicle

By | August 25th, 2011|Categories: MarketVision, Readings|Tags: |Comments Off on The Minus 4.5% Week: MV Chronicle

At MarketVision, I write about the Minus 4.5% week and What Not To do.

(Needs registration, free. Excerpts follow)

The Minus 4.5% Week And What Not To Do

The markets have crashed 4.5% this week, with banks battered beyond imagination, down 7.6%. All world markets have done badly:  Since August 1, the KOSPI and DAX have fallen 20%, while most others – the UK FTSE, the US Dow, Japan’s Nikkei and the Indian Nifty have fallen 10% or more. The crash has happened in an event vacuum – the fear is not of something bad happening, it’s of something good not happening.


9 08, 2011

SOme Links on a Mad Day

By | August 9th, 2011|Categories: Readings|Comments Off on SOme Links on a Mad Day

From @sachinkalbag: Real estate prices to fall 20% due to global slowdown, buyer’s delight.

@pragmatic_d: The London Riots were partly rooted in social deprivation.

@RMantri: The benefits of boredom by Scott Adams.

@b50: Brokers with hands on their faces blog

China: Inflation reaches 37 month high of 6.5%.

Subbarao reappointed for two more years. […]

7 08, 2011

MV Chronicle: World Market Madness, Donchian channels

By | August 7th, 2011|Categories: MarketVision, Readings|Tags: |3 Comments

At MarketVision, the weekly chronicle talks about the S&P Downgrade. (Regn required, free)

We pause our regular programming with a “WTF is happening to the world markets”.

So WTF is happening to the world markets?

We ask that question as the situation gets increasingly bizarre. I point you to S&P’s downgrade of the US government recently, which calls for a flight from the complex […]