Countries in Recession (updated)

By |May 17th, 2009|

Updated 17 May 09: Added Israel.

Updated 15 May 09: Added France.

Updated 19 Feb 09: Added Taiwan

Updated 23 Jan 09: Added Britain.

Updated 1 Dec 08: NBER Says officially, the US went into recession from December 2007.

Officially, at least:

Asia (Report Date, Country, GDP Growth):

Europe/Americas :

Will keep this page updated.

Analysts Getting It Wrong, And No Recovery?

By |April 11th, 2009|

John Mauldin’s latest, Is this Recovery that we see? brings up some interesting points about where we are and if this really is a recovery. A particularly hilarious point in there was how analyst estimates were so way off it’s amazing they even get paid. (Wait, they probably got bonuses. The current fad is to reward the incompentant).

The last number below is the actual figure. The rest were “estimates”.

At this point I’d also like to mention that a truckload of people had said the Sensex EPS estimate for year ending March 2009 was “between 955 and 1050″. (Read: The Sensational Sensex EPS Story, Jul 6 2006)

Right now, just before any Sensex company has announced results, the BSE India page shows the Sensex at 10,804 and P/E as 15.13. That makes the current Sensex trailing EPS (Jan 08 to Dec 08) equal to 714.

Unless some spectacular results come and take the EPS up 35% in the last […]

Photos of the Recession

By |March 19th, 2009|

A fantastic photo set of the recession, worldwide. A photo of Kiev, Ukraine struck me:

Minus the snow, this could be Gurgaon or Navi Mumbai. The recession is here, just the photos aren’t there. Yet.

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Roubini predicts a bleak 2009

By |January 10th, 2009|

Roubini: 2009 will be very very bleak:

So how far are we into this recession that has already lasted longer than the previous two (the 1990 and 2001 recessions lasted eight months each)? I believe the U.S. economy is only half way through a recession that will be the longest and most severe in the post-war period. U.S. gross domestic product will continue to contract throughout 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5% and a recession that will last close to two years.

The wealth losses for households related to the fall in home prices are roughly $4 trillion so far, and are clearly bound to increase further as home prices continue to fall–eventually reaching the $6-8 trillion range (compatible with a 30-40% fall in home prices peak to trough). With a negative wealth effect of 6 cents on the dollar, the reduction in personal consumption could amount to a whopping $500 billion. And negative wealth effect from fall […]

World Recession Is Here

By |November 22nd, 2008|

From Stratfor’s Geopolitical Diary (Subscribe only)

The world, at least by our reckoning, is now officially in recession.

The downturn has three strands. In the United States, the subprime housing collapse triggered a liquidity crisis. In Europe, the American liquidity crisis triggered a much broader and deeper banking crisis. And in Japan — and the rest of East Asia — the enervated demand in the United States and Europe is now triggering an export crisis. Three very different but interlinked recessions have now formed something that the world has not seen since 1975: simultaneous recessions throughout the developed world.

Other data certainly confirm the prognosis. Shipping rates on major container ships have, by some reports, fallen 98 percent (demand for shipping mirrors demand for Asian exports). The 13-week U.S. Treasury bill now bears a 0.005 percent payout — technically not zero, but considered effectively zero by most reporting methods — indicating that everyone is shifting holdings into the […]