Reliance Results in Graphs. I think this is the best way to view these things.
Revenues are up, Profits are down.
Reliance Results in Graphs. I think this is the best way to view these things.
Revenues are up, Profits are down.
And to continue with the 2011InCharts theme, we have the market snapshot since the highs of 2008:
(Click for larger pic)
We're at a 16.75 P/E and near recent lows - and below both long-term moving averages. Sectors in 2011:
Rea; estate was destroyed by over half; infrastructure by 39%. Banks and Midcaps were down over 30%, and the only sector that looked good was FMCG, up 8.4%. A bad year for everyone except those selling soap and toothpaste!
I spoke of the Marginal Standing Facility recently, and today we take a look at liquidity in terms of how much banks are borrowing from the RBI overnight:
Over the weekend the Repo requirement was 1.73 lakh crores, a very very high amount. (total deposits in the system are about 57 lakh crores, so this is 3% of that, which is quite high). RBI expects that repo be 1% of total deposits (called “Net Demand and Time Liabilities”) to be “comfortable”.
However, it is not uncommon for liquidity requirements to spike in December, since much of the money that is paid as advance tax sits in the Government account with RBI and needs to be spent to come back into the system. The current situation may just be temporary.
The MSF has been seeing offtake recently as well – as discussed, it is beyond repo as well. Announced one day after (unlike Repo/Rev Repo which are announced the same day), the MSF has reached nearly 10,000 cr. of borrowing.
A quick post about how the markets have done over the last few days, in both reaching a two year low (lowest since August 2009) and then doing a 4% recovery over two days.
(Click to enlarge)
The slope of the 50 and 200 DMA are now down and it looks like the index is headed downwards. Strong technical support exists at 4,500 but nowadays strong is a relative word; news flow can be much stronger.
Market Capitalization to GDP isn’t really a comparable figure, since one is a measure of wealth and the other dynamic measure of transactions in a year. Yet, it’s useful to see valuations in comparison with where they were earlier.
(GDP figures from RBI quarterly database, Marketcap from NSE/BSE)
We are at levels last seen in 2008, and earlier, in 2005. Note that in the earlier bubble – 1999-2000 – we were at less than 60% of GDP. Much of India Inc. has listed in the last decade, so it’s not very surprising. It does show though, that 60% is not uncharted territory.
Copyright (C) Deepak Shenoy 2005-2012
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