Macronomics: RBI Swaps Debt, But Repayment Concentration Remains


This is an archived mail for Capital Mind Premium subscribers, sent on Feb 6, 2014. (Read more)

There’s been some interesting macro-data in the last few days, which seems to have gone largely unnoticed. At Capital Mind, we like to look at data but understand that by-and-large it’s only the outliers that are actionable. That means I could give you a very large amount of data to analyze but in the end, what is actually interesting is:

  • Is there something that’s out of the ordinary? Something that’s much lower than it ever has been, or much higher? (Outliers)
  • Is there a way to take those outliers and build an investment thesis around them? Can those be tested back? (Actionability)

Different things are actionable for different people, but it’s always a little jigsaw puzzle you have to put together so that you see what’s really happening inside. Let’s take a look at the outlier in government debt – the big repayment – and how it impacts the longer term bonds.

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