SBI in 2010: (link)

The worst is over,” chairman O P Bhatt told reporters on the sidelines of an RBI event here when asked about the bank’s non-performing assets (NPA) levels.

In the January-March quarter of 2009-10, SBI reported a 32 per cent fall in its net profit at Rs 1,867 crore, partly pulled down by higher provisioning for NPAs. Its net profit in the same quarter in the previous fiscal was Rs 2,742 crore.

SBI in 2011: (link)

“We think the worst is over with regard to NPAs. NPAs have plateaued. The biggest hit was from one aviation company, which accounted for about Rs 1,200 crore of the NPAs. But we could expect some improvement in the sector following the proposal to allow FDI and direct import of fuel,” Mr Chaudhuri said.

(Pratip Chaudhuri was the CEO then, and while profits came in at 15%+, the Gross NPAs were at 40,000 cr.)

SBI in 2012: (link)

“We think the worst is over with regard to NPAs. NPAs have plateaued. The biggest hit was from one aviation company, which accounted for about Rs 1,200 crore of the NPAs. But we could expect some improvement in the sector following the proposal to allow FDI and direct import of fuel,” Mr Chaudhuri said.

SBI in 2013 (Video)


“I think we are behind the worst, definitely” – while he meant that the worst was behind them, his mis-statement actually proved prophetic.

SBI in 2015: (link) At least it was “hope”

Have I seen the worst already? I hope so,” Bhattacharya said. “But let’s just wait it out for a quarter or two.”

SBI in 2017: (link)

Worst is over. A few chunky accounts remain which may or may not slip,” Bhattacharya told Firstpost on Wednesday. “If no resolution happens,then provisioning burden will remain,” Bhattacharya said.

SBI in 2018 (link):

But, the bank’s management claimed that the worst was over.

“The NPA recognition has peaked, slippage ratio is coming down, credit cost continues to be elevated, because many of the resolution will happen in June quarter I don’t want to sound very optimistic on Q4FY18, I am not pessimistic about it either. But FY19 onwards we have certain estimates to achieve a certain level of RoA and RoE. Today I am sitting in February in 45 days no miracle is going to happen but we can hope for a much better performance next fiscal,” said Rajnish Kumar, Chairman, SBI.

This is after the worst results SBI has seen in 19 years, for the Dec 2017 quarter.

So Is the Worst Over?

Stuff that’s still ahead: Big NCLT resolutions (which will mean even larger haircuts than the banks have allocated for), more NPAs in sectors they haven’t yet anticipated (retail lending) and general pain because of rising bond yields.

SBI has 200,000 cr. of bad loans. That is definitely “Gross” NPA. That is more bad loans than most banks have given in loans in total, and it’s 10% of SBI’s lending in total.

If you keep saying the worst is behind you and things get even more worse, then you’re walking through time facing backwards.

It’s only gonna be over when they stop saying it’s over.

Now, tell them about it: