Yet another month goes by with the Nifty doing something positive – a 3% month this time. Takes the Nifty’s return to 10.9%.
This takes us to a 10% return in calendar year 2018.
The difference in August is that it has come when the rupee has fallen to nearly 71. But foreign investors continue to be bullish, apparently, with 1800 cr. in equity and 3000 cr. in debt. Regardless of the fact that debt markets have corrected (yields have gone up).
On a positive note, the GDP data that came in, showed a fairly good move up (8.2% growth) even if there were base effects.
This is an interesting time, when valuations seem to be at one extreme and markets continue to go up. Here’s the Sensex in a similar chart:
The market’s gone up in just one smart move since end-June, and there seems to be no stopping it. There are headwinds like Trump, or the rupee, or the upcoming elections, or massive NPAs. But when markets climb walls of worry, you have to wonder if it will be just unnecessary worry, or if the market’s being complacent. We won’t know until we know.