308, 2015

Chart: Nifty Company Results Show Abysmal Profit Growth Even as Banks and Auto Shine

By |August 3rd, 2015|Categories: Charts, Nifty|0 Comments

Out of the 50 Nifty companies, 33 have declared results and the status looks quite depressing. Aggregate profits of the Nifty companies are up just 2.5% (if you added them all up), and revenues are down.

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The biggest performer, Vedanta (previously Sesa Sterlite) is up so much because of a 2,200 cr. book entry for depreciation adjustments in June last year. If you ignored that, Vedanta would show profits have fallen. And if you ignored Vedanta entirely, you get a 1.45% growth in overall profits.

This is low but a few notes:

3007, 2015

Optionalysis: A Video with Abhijit on Using The Put/Call Ratio with HPCL (Part 2)

By |July 30th, 2015|Categories: Optionalysis, Premium|0 Comments

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3007, 2015

Suckered: Castex Goes From 40 to 360, and Since Then, No Buyers.

By |July 30th, 2015|Categories: Castex, Suckered|13 Comments

So there’s this stock called Castex Technologies.

Let me introduce you to this chart:

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The stock rose from Rs. 40 to Rs. 360 and then, it’s been limit down (5% down per day) since. With next to no volume.

The company is in the auto component space, and used to be called Amtek India. It’s still promoted by Amtek Auto, which is a listed company but that share is not doing anywhere close to this kind of move.

Why did Castex Rise and Fall?

Castex has a large FCCB issue due for maturity in April and September 2017. This adds up to about $200 million. The FCCB converts to shares at Rs. 103.005 per share, and if the share price is lower, the FCCB holders will not convert and instead, demand their money […]

3007, 2015

Optionalysis: Using the Put/Call Ratio on Stocks Near Expiry For Option Trades (Part 1)

By |July 30th, 2015|Categories: Optionalysis, Premium|1 Comment

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2907, 2015

Macronomics: A Macro Look at the Rupee and Foreign Investor Flows

By |July 29th, 2015|Categories: FII, Macronomics, Premium|0 Comments

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FIIs seem to be easing off on India. As much as we can imagine that China’s loss – it’s market in Shanghai has fallen over 10% in the last two days – is our gain, it really doesn’t seem to be so, looking at foreign investor data. Here’s the picture in charts.

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2707, 2015

Chart: Oh, We Are Still Overvalued, Says the CNX 500 P/E

By |July 27th, 2015|Categories: Charts, Macro|6 Comments

A note I’d recently spoken about in Premium shows us something very important. Even as we had a near 2% down day (nothing compared to China which had an 8.5% down day) we are, er, slightly overvalued.

I plot the Price to Earnings ratio of the CNX 500, which is the broadest index we have in India. And in that way, I plot its earnings growth over the last year. And what you see is surprising:

 

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We are at the highest P/E ratio levels since January 2008.

And we are at the lowest earnings growth levels in three years.

Whoa!

Markets go through phases of overvaluation and undervaluation. From Jan 2014 to Jan 2015, earnings growth for the broad index picked up, to reach 20% growth levels and since Jan 2015, […]

2707, 2015

Syngene IPO: A Very Dull Analysis

By |July 27th, 2015|Categories: IPO|2 Comments

Syngene has an IPO coming up, here’s the detail:

  • Offer: 2.2 crore shares
  • Price: Rs. 240 to Rs. 250
  • Size: Around Rs. 500 cr.
  • From: 27th July to 29th July 2015
  • Lot: 60 shares (Rs. 15,000 approximately)

We make a very cursory analysis of the IPO, as we have realised in recent times, (paraphrasing Samir Arora):

If the IPO is bad you don’t want any shares. If it’s good, you wont’ get any shares (allocated).

So detailed analysis are largely useless and it’s better to consider buying after the company lists, usually. So this is going to be abrupt and boring.

Who gets the money?

Not Syngene. They don’t get a paisa from the IPO.

All the money goes to Biocon, the promoter of Syngene. This is bad for Syngene – typically it would have taken money from an IPO and expanded operations. But because it is a cash generating company it […]

2707, 2015

JP Associates Gets a "Near Default" tag by CARE, Loans of Over 22,000 cr. at Stake

By |July 27th, 2015|Categories: ICICI Bank, idb, IDBI, JPAssociates|5 Comments

CARE has downgraded JP Associates‘ rating to D, which means that according to CARE they are in default, or very likely to default.

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What they say:

The revision in the ratings of the bank facilities and instruments of Jaiprakash Associates Ltd (JAL) takes into account delay in servicing of debt obligations by the company due to its weak liquidity position.

But What Do Rating Agencies Know, Huh?

The biggest problem with rating agencies is that they react late. Typically a big problem is that they are paid by the companies, not by the buyers of bonds or lenders of loans, to rate the facilities. This means if they cut the rating down, they could lose revenue. Also that they are aware of the consequences of a downgrade – that because they […]

2407, 2015

Portfolio: Rejig of the Long Term Portfolio, And Adding Two Stocks

By |July 24th, 2015|Categories: CAPM Portfolio, Premium|0 Comments

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We’ve decided to add two more stocks to the Long Term Portfolio. We’ll be adding more as times go by, but here’s the major segment of the change.

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2207, 2015

Infy: Jun 2015 Quarter Results Show Terrible Profit Growth Even Though Revenues Pick Up

By |July 22nd, 2015|Categories: Infosys, Results|0 Comments

Infy results had come out yesterday and we do a chart thing with them:

Revenues up 7.03% : The Only Good Thing About Results

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Profits are up 5% yoy but down 2% quarter on quarter. The only metric that works for them is quarter-on-quarter revenue growth.

EPS Growth, Too, Falls

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Earnings Per Share has grown 5% year on year, after showing more than 20% growth last year.

Employee Growth at 11%, Utilization at 80%

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Infy seems to have fixed the falling […]

2207, 2015

The Big Mo Corner: Money Buys Half?

By |July 22nd, 2015|Categories: BigMoCorner, Premium|0 Comments

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2207, 2015

Conversations: Raghu Vohra on How Fixed Income Funds Work

By |July 22nd, 2015|Categories: Video|3 Comments

In another round of Conversations, we bring you Raghu Vohra, founder at Blackstone Valley Group speaking about How Fixed Income Funds work:

 

Raghu speaks of how global funds that are called “fixed income” work, of mandates and investments and all that. Add to that a quick note on Puerto Rico and other happenings. In conversation with Deepak Shenoy, we learn that:

  • Fixed Income funds can invest beyond bonds
  • Mandate just as important as regulation
  • Bond managers decision making processes
  • The craziness that’s in Puerto Rico and Greece

Hope you like it!

2107, 2015

Macronomics: Highest CNX 500 P/E in Eight Years!

By |July 21st, 2015|Categories: Macronomics, Premium|0 Comments

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2107, 2015

Premium: Of Sun Pharma, Infy and Some Results That Spooked The Day

By |July 21st, 2015|Categories: Premium, Q1 Results|0 Comments

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