3108, 2015

News: China Gets Really Angry, Mumbai Flat Sells 50% Lower, Defaults in Dubai and Not Much Better in India

By |August 31st, 2015|Categories: China, News, Readings, RealEstate|0 Comments

In News to Read today:

NHB “considering” a proposal to allow home lenders to reintroduce prepayment penalties. But this is just retrograde – the excuse that they need to recover their costs is a load of bull, they charge the customer legal costs and processing fees, and are covered from day one.

How farmers from Rural China bet on the market and lost. The village that played the markets in its spare time, seems to have lost its spare money.

A Navi Mumbai flat sold for 50% less. It probably deserves to fall a lot more, as […]

3108, 2015

Macronomics: A Lower Low on the Nifty, Which Seems Justified If You See The Macro Picture

By |August 31st, 2015|Categories: Macronomics, Premium|0 Comments

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We had a wild week on the markets in the week. Just as the markets recovered a good portion of what they had lost and we “reclaimed” the 8000 mark on the Nifty. However this seems to be a strong area of resistance. The Nifty has moved up from these lows twice before, and from below it will serve as a point of resistance. But what’s more important is that this is a confirmation of the downturn:


2808, 2015

Banks Closed on 2nd and 4th Saturdays, No NEFT/RTGS; But Full Days on Other Saturdays

By |August 28th, 2015|Categories: RBI|3 Comments

In a body blow to the political parties that either wanted to work all Saturdays or to party with bankers on all weekends, the RBI has in a sober note pronounced that counting of Saturdays will go in the following manner:

  • First Saturday, FULL working day, banking system to operate till 6:30 pm or such time as a normal weekday
  • Second Saturday, Holiday!
  • Third Saturday, FULL working day, like the First.
  • Fourth Saturday, Holiday!
  • Fifth Saturday, Sorry bankers, this round goes to FULL working day.

What “FULL Working Day” means is that there will be all banking functionality:


2808, 2015

JP Morgan AMC Takes A Big Hit on Two Short Term Debt Funds – The Sword of Potential Default in Amtek Auto?

By |August 28th, 2015|Categories: Debt, MutualFunds|10 Comments

Remember Amtek Auto? That company that fell big time on the exchanges and the official excuse was that it was taken out of the F&O category?

Well, that’s not that only thing that seems to have been hit. JP Morgan AMC’s short term debt funds have seen a large dip in their NAV yesterday. From Invest Mutual:

JP Morgan Short Term Income Fund  -3.38% – This is a short debt fund with Avg Maturity of 3.59 yrs and a Modified Duration of 2.01

JP Morgan India Treasury Fund  -1.73% – This is an ultra short term fund with Avg […]

2808, 2015

Optionalysis: A Quick Note About MA20 and Whoa Look Where It Is

By |August 28th, 2015|Categories: Optionalysis, Premium|0 Comments

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The MA20 is our proprietary indicator about market breadth. The MA20 is calculated by taking the number of Nifty stocks above their 20 Day Moving Averages, and we subtract from this number those that are below. We then take a further four day MA of the resulting number to smooth it out.


2808, 2015

Optionalysis: Writing Options To Profit; A Calendar Straddle Spread To Welcome Volatility

By |August 28th, 2015|Categories: Optionalysis, Premium|0 Comments

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Today we explore the options market in some detail. AP has been providing some excellent trading knowledge on the #options channel on Slack, and we’ve seen some incredible moves in recent times. Here’s a couple of trade ideas beyond the discussions there, that we’ve noticed that has been interesting.


2608, 2015

In Charts: Foreign Investors Sell The Most in Equities Since The Lehman Collapse

By |August 26th, 2015|Categories: Charts, FII|3 Comments

Foreign Investors are taking money off the table, yet again. In the last 10 days they have removed Rs. 14,000 cr. worth of equities (including a provisional Rs. 2,300 cr. sold today).


This does make August the worst month for equities since October 2008, when Lehman collapsed and left the whole world bloodied. This time it’s China, which is arguably bigger than Lehman but it hasn’t exactly collapsed yet.


2508, 2015

Portfolio: As The Dust of our Stop Losses Settles, We Evaluate How The Portfolio Has Done

By |August 25th, 2015|Categories: CAPM Portfolio, Premium|0 Comments

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2408, 2015

The Markets Fall Big, But It Really Is Not Useful to Panic

By |August 24th, 2015|Categories: Commentary, Nifty|5 Comments

The markets are 6% down. And in the carnage we saw it move from a bad open, to a worse mid-day, to an absolutely terrible afternoon. image

The Nifty sank to nearly the lowest in a year (we went briefly below this level in Oct 2014).


This is not Normal of […]

2408, 2015

Macronomics: Taking Liquidity Out of Markets Can Kill Them, Coming To An Exchange Near You

By |August 24th, 2015|Categories: Macronomics, Premium|0 Comments

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The fear of the US markets falling by 500 points (Dow) on Friday reflects in what seems to be near-panic online and that many players think that:

• we will go gap down on Monday

• We will go to lower circuit on Monday

• this is a great buying opportunity since markets will have fallen 10%

And so on. At Capital Mind we don’t like to predict what will happen. We instead “anticipate” different outcomes based on available data and see what we would do to react.

But that’s gyan. It’s pretty obvious the coming week is going to be tough. The theme that we want to touch upon is: Liquidity.


2308, 2015

On Slack: Coffee Day IPO, Blood Bath in Markets, Tata Investment in Uber and More…

By |August 23rd, 2015|Categories: Premium, Slack Discussions|0 Comments

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The Slack Discussions

The Slack group at Capital Mind Premium has been extremely active and if you haven’t been there, pop us a note by replying to this email. (If you’re a trial member this probably sound like Greek to you; it will be available when you sign up!)

Awesome discussions again!

A brief summary of some of the interesting things discussed there in the last few days:

SEBI gives Coffee Day the Go-Ahead to raise Rs.1,150 crore through initial public offer (IPO)

More Reading:  […]

2108, 2015

RBI Says Duh, Real Estate Demand Can Be Driven Far More If Developers Cut Prices

By |August 21st, 2015|Categories: Banks, RealEstate|5 Comments

Rajan, in an interview with Arundhati Bhattacharya (Chief of SBI) shows some real gumption when AB asks him:

“I was thinking if it is possible for a little while, could something of this could be allowed given the fact that this is one of the portfolio where NPAs are the lowest”.

Rajan shot back, saying that:

I do believe that if real estate developers who are sitting on unsold stocks bring down prices, that will be a very great help to the sector because once there is a […]

2008, 2015

Amtek Auto Follows The Castex Way With No Circuit Support – Crashes Over 60%

By |August 20th, 2015|Categories: Suckered|1 Comment

We’ve spoken about Castex, which used to be Amtek India. It continues to fall to the circuit limit every day since it hit Rs. 360 a share, and is now at Rs. 86 per share and shows no sign of even trading a few shares.

The parent of that company is Amtek Auto. This company too has been hammered, and has no “circuit” protection because it’s in the Futures and Options category. It has fallen from Rs. 175 in July to Rs. 63.6 today, a 63% fall!

Here’s a daily chart:


2008, 2015

Optionalysis: The HDFC Warrant For Three Years, Decomposed

By |August 20th, 2015|Categories: HDFC, Optionalysis, Premium|0 Comments

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HDFC Limited has some warrants that are being peddled by bankers for a fee. If you’re a high net worth individual, you can buy Rs. 1 crore worth warrants, apparently at about Rs. 175-180 each.

The details are hazy but I have this: