Investing in muddle-through markets, Market Overview & MoreInvesting in muddle-through markets, Market Overview & More

🔆 Saturday Coffee Newsletter

• Market Overview: Top stocks & asset classes
• Letter: Investing in muddle-through markets
• Good Reads: 5 articles on investing & more
• Pop Quiz: Answer and win a cool prize!

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What’s up with markets? 📉📈

Over the last year, crude is down 23% after it spiked due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Apart from this big red bar on the 1-year time frame, everything else has changed in single digits. Interestig to see equities, gold and interest rates - all three up over the last 1 year.

Last week we talked about how much Adani group lost since the Hindenburg report. This week, there is some respite for Adani group stocks due to positive news flow.

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Letter from Fund Manager 📩

Every month, Deepak Shenoy, Fund Manager & CEO, Capitalmind writes to Capitalmind PMS investors about portfolio progress and market updates.

In his latest note, he talks about investing approach during times when markets are undecided about where to be. Just like it is today. He calls it "Muddle-through" markets.

In the current “muddle through” market, nothing seems to be happening on the upside and there is not enough of a downside yet.

We are in a no-go zone in the market for nearly a year now. Has this happened in the past?

He looked at the data for one thing:

Have equities given more than 7%, on average, whenever it has looked like the past year has been “muddle through”?

The data paints quite a positive picture. I am sure, you'll enjoy reading it.
Read: Wealth Letter March 2023: Muddling Through Markets

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What we are reading 📝

• Why do businesses need to report adjusted earnings? How do you recognize whether adjustments are real or not? Podcast: The problem with “adjusted” financial accounts
• Which asset bubble was the greatest in history? Was it the flower that once sold for the price of a house? Read: The 7 Greatest Asset Bubbles of All Time
• Warren Buffett released his annual letter over the past weekend. Read: Lessons from the 2022 Berkshire Letter
• By studying 200 million chess moves, researchers shed light on what gives players an advantage—and what trips them up. Read: How Experts Make Complex Decisions
• Ben Carlson shares the pros and cons of the different bond durations and then gets into the historical returns over various interest rate cycles. Read: A Short History of Interest Rate Cyles

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Pop Quiz 🙋‍♂️

It’s simple. Reply to this email and answer the question.

Born in Mumbai, Rajeev Samant completed his education at Stanford University. He then joined Oracle Corporation as one of the youngest managers there. However, after a couple of years, he quit and decided to return to India and start something of his own.

After backpacking around the world for a year, Samant returned to India where he decided to live the rural life. He started farming mangoes, roses, teak wood, and table grapes at his family's 20-acre plot.

In 1997, his company became the first to grow this fruit in their region. They also planted varietals such as the French Sauvignon Blanc and Californian Chenin Blanc that had never been planted before in India.

This fruit is the key ingredient of the final product.

Identify this company that has a smiling sun as its logo.

Hit reply to this email and answer.

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Each week, we randomly pick one winner who gets something cool!

Last week’s winner: Aditya Sehgal 🎉

Last week's answer: Nirula's

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(If you're reading this on the website and want to participate in the quiz, subscribe to the newsletter.)

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