Who wrote this article?

Deepak Shenoy, Capitalmind's research team.

Nifty, 10 Year Bond Yields and Inflation

11 Sept 2013Deepak Shenoy1 min read

Quick Facts

What is "Nifty, 10 Year Bond Yields and Inflation" about?
What category is this article in?: Fixed Income
Who wrote this article?: Deepak Shenoy, Capitalmind's research team.
When was this article published?: Published 11 September 2013.
How long does this article take to read?: 1 min read

A great question for Prashanth: How does this chart from Ritholtz look like for India?

So I decided to plot the Nifty, the 10 year bond yield (month end values from RBI) and WPI inflation in a single chart.

Nifty, 10 year bond yields and Inflation

(Click for a bigger chart)

As you can see, India’s bond yields are not entirely related to the equity curve (other than from 2011, perhaps). As yields fall, equity markets should rise as money becomes less expensive to borrow – but in India, the bond market is not as well developed, so the transition was absent in the late 90s.

The early 2000s saw bond yields going up from about 5% to 8%, but the markets went up even higher! inflation was benign through this period and mostly, we had positive rates (interest rates higher than inflation).

From 2008, we have had a flat market, and yields have both fallen and risen with the stock markets. Only since 2011 have we seen bond market yields go down while equities have recovered.

The upper 6300 barrier has been a fairly stiff resistance now with three hits in five years. I wonder if this current upmove will take us there again.