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Timing the market, Your worst investing decision, OYO prepares for IPO & More

Timing the market, Your worst investing decision, OYO prepares for IPO & More

. ๐Ÿ”† Data-backed Insight: Should you try to time the market? ๐Ÿ”† Investing: Position sizing helps to live another day ๐Ÿ”† Psychology: Being rational when shit is hitting the fan is easier said than done ๐Ÿ”† IPO: A much-needed context of Oyo's private valuation before the IPO ๐Ÿ”† US Markets: Software stocks got hammered. Are they value buys now? ๐Ÿ”† Pop Poll:ย In which stock have you lost the most money? .

CM Team4 min read
Quick Facts
What is "Timing the market, Your worst investing decision, OYO prepares for IPO & More" about?
. ๐Ÿ”† Data-backed Insight: Should you try to time the market? ๐Ÿ”† Investing: Position sizing helps to live another day ๐Ÿ”† Psychology: Being rational when shit is hitting the fan is easier said than done ๐Ÿ”† IPO: A much-needed context of Oyo's private valuation before the IPO ๐Ÿ”† US Markets: Software stocks got hammered. Are they value buys now? ๐Ÿ”† Pop Poll:ย In which stock have you lost the most money? .
What category is this article in?
General
Who wrote this article?
CM Team, Capitalmind's research team.
When was this article published?
Published 2 April 2022.
How long does this article take to read?
4 min read
What topics does this article cover?
IPO, Links, Saturday Coffee
What does the "Is it the right time to Invest?ย ๐Ÿ‘€" section say?
In the last 2 years, markets have been through a shutdown economy during the pandemic, braved a steep crash, embraced inflation woes, and most recently, climbed the wall of worry related to the Russia Ukraine war. The markets have never felt more overvalued and they still keep inching up.
What does the "Position sizing is more important than alpha. There, said it ๐Ÿ’ช" section say?
Position sizing - as a concept - is boring. You'll rather read about a fancy microcap stock than spend 10 minutes understanding how to appropriately allocate to different stocks (or assets). It's not just you. It's all of us.
What does the "Private markets meet public markets (IPO)ย ๐Ÿคน๐Ÿป" section say?
Not too long ago we would read about outrageous valuations enjoyed by cash-burning startups. We would smirk about it and order our pizza that was subsidized by the likes of Tiger Global and Soft Bank. It was all fine to us when institutions valued each other the way they wanted because it didn't impact us - at least directly.
What does the "Software growth hype goes puffย ๐Ÿ’จ" section say?
The hammering of "high flier" software stocks got overshadowed by the Russia Ukraine war. These stocks dived from their highs and have broken the dream run that started after the Covid crash of March 2020. This post puts into perspective the scale of the fall, the current valuations these companies trade at and compares the current scenario with earlier tech boom cycles.
What does the "Pop Poll - a very personal questionย ๐Ÿ˜…" section say?
In which stock have you lost the maximum amount of money? (till now)
  • **Data-backed Insight: **Should you try to time the market?

  • **Investing: **Position sizing helps to live another day

  • **Psychology: **Being rational when shit is hitting the fan is easier said than done

  • IPO: A much-needed context of Oyoโ€™s private valuation before the IPO

  • US Markets: Software stocks got hammered. Are they value buys now?

  • **Pop Poll: **In which stock have you lost the most money?

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Is it the right time to Invest? ๐Ÿ‘€

In the last 2 years, markets have been through a shutdown economy during the pandemic, braved a steep crash, embraced inflation woes, and most recently, climbed the wall of worry related to the Russia Ukraine war. The markets have never felt more overvalued and they still keep inching up.

So, once more, the most asked question is: Is this a good time to invest? In other words, how do I not be the shmuck who bought at the top?

Read - On Market Timing: What if you were the luckiest investor in India?

Position sizing is more important than alpha. There, said it ๐Ÿ’ช

Position sizing - as a concept - is boring. Youโ€™ll rather read about a fancy microcap stock than spend 10 minutes understanding how to appropriately allocate to different stocks (or assets). Itโ€™s not just you. Itโ€™s all of us.

To make this interesting hereโ€™s a real-life example of how a portfolio outperforms the market the same year in which it suffered an 87% loss on a single position.

Read - Bill Millerโ€™s Biggest Loss

(And if you want to check out a simple (read boring) position sizing framework for sorting out your portfolio. Reply back with a โ€œYESโ€)

Private markets meet public markets (IPO) ๐Ÿคน๐Ÿป

Not too long ago we would read about outrageous valuations enjoyed by cash-burning startups. We would smirk about it and order our pizza that was subsidized by the likes of Tiger Global and Soft Bank. It was all fine to us when institutions valued each other the way they wanted because it didnโ€™t impact us - at least directly.

But now, these startups have started approaching the public markets and itโ€™s more difficult than ever to determine their true valuations. News about Oyo IPO is making rounds and so this read becomes all the more relevant.

Read - Crouching Tiger, Hidden Problems

Thinking clearly is simple. Not easy ๐Ÿค”

Two years ago today the world was in a panic. The U.S. stock market was nearly 33% off its highs (the largest decline since 2008/2009) and no one knew what would come next. Around that same time, the author started to wonder how long it might take for the market to recover. So he asked Twitter and these were the results. No one thought that the market would bounce back so early. But it did.

Read - When the Optimists are Too Pessimistic

Software growth hype goes puff ๐Ÿ’จ

The hammering of โ€œhigh flierโ€ software stocks got overshadowed by the Russia Ukraine war. These stocks dived from their highs and have broken the dream run that started after the Covid crash of March 2020. This post puts into perspective the scale of the fall, the current valuations these companies trade at and compares the current scenario with earlier tech boom cycles.

Read - The State of Software

Pop Poll - a very personal question ๐Ÿ˜…

In which stock have you lost the maximum amount of money? (till now)

Answer: _______

Click here to answer anonymously

Last weekโ€™s poll results****๐Ÿ’ก

Total responses = 261

  • 69% of respondents would want to achieve their goals through higher returns

  • Even the ones who prefer โ€œinvesting moreโ€ over โ€œreturnsโ€ want to achieve goals with higher returns

It seems that achieving a goal is sweeter when itโ€™s through higher returns. Money is just not a number then. Interesting!

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